Our Ravens vs Colts prediction favors Baltimore. The Ravens start their 2026 NFL campaign at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, September 13. CBS carries the 1:00 PM ET kickoff. For the live model numbers, and where the value sits, the Signal block below has both. Indeed, Signal rates every Week 1 fixture the same way.
Both finished 8-9, which notably makes this the most evenly matched pairing on the early slate. Indianapolis actually outscored Baltimore, 466 points to 424, and matched them on point differential in the process.
What separates them is how they move the ball. Baltimore ran for 2,662 yards at 5.25 a carry, the most productive ground game of any team playing this weekend. Indianapolis, meanwhile, allowed 3.87 yards a carry, the stingiest run defense in this fixture. Ultimately, something has to give.
Ravens vs Colts: our editor’s prop
One editorial call to sit alongside the live Signal numbers above.
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Our prop
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Ravens vs Colts: 2025 season form
Both went 8-9, and both finished with a points difference in the twenties. Indianapolis scored more; Baltimore conceded fewer.
| 2025 regular season | Ravens | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-9 | 8-9 |
| Points for | 424 | 466 |
| Points against | 398 | 412 |
| Point differential | +26 | +54 |
| Sacks recorded | 30 | 39 |
| Sacks allowed | 45 | 29 |
| Interceptions made | 11 | 14 |
| Third-down offense | 40.9% | 42.6% |
| Red-zone offense | 47.5% | 65.2% |
| Red zone allowed | 50.8% | 53.7% |
| Opponent passer rating | 89.6 | 88.0 |
The trenches rows are where it gets interesting. Baltimore ran for 2,662 yards at 5.25 a carry, yet allowed 45 sacks, and their red-zone conversion of 47.5% was the weakest in this fixture. Indianapolis converted 65.2% inside the twenty. Therefore the Colts need fewer trips to make them count.
Ravens vs Colts injury report and team news
The official Week 1 game-status report is not out yet, because teams file their first designations in the days before kickoff. This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags appear. For now, both sides expect their first-choice quarterbacks.
Lamar Jackson starts for Baltimore, with Derrick Henry and Justice Hill in the backfield and Zay Flowers leading the receivers after 1,211 yards in 2025. Mark Andrews remains at tight end, meanwhile, and Rashod Bateman works opposite Flowers.
Daniel Jones starts for Indianapolis. Jonathan Taylor headlines the run game after 1,585 rushing yards, while Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and Keenan Allen split the receiving work and Tyler Warren plays tight end.
The matchup that decides it: Baltimore’s run game against the best run defense in the fixture
Specifically, Baltimore averaged 5.25 yards a carry across 2025 and ran for 2,662 yards, both the highest figures of any team playing this weekend. Derrick Henry alone, notably, accounted for 1,595 of them.
Indianapolis is the awkward opponent for that. They conceded 3.87 yards a carry, the lowest rate in this fixture, and their defense recorded 39 sacks. If the Colts hold up on the ground, Baltimore is pushed toward a passing game that threw for only 2,985 yards.
Furthermore, there is a second thread worth watching. Baltimore’s line allowed 45 sacks and Jackson took the punishment; Indianapolis allowed 29. In a game this evenly matched, protection may separate it more than yardage does.
Players to watch
- Derrick Henry (BAL, RB): 1,595 rushing yards in 2025, running at a Colts defense that allowed 3.87 a carry.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL, QB): Sacked behind a line that conceded 45 last season, against a front that recorded 39.
- Jonathan Taylor (IND, RB): 1,585 rushing yards, and the reason Indianapolis can match Baltimore’s tempo.
- Daniel Jones (IND, QB): Inherits the most efficient red-zone offense in this fixture at 65.2%.
- Zay Flowers (BAL, WR): 1,211 receiving yards, and Baltimore’s main answer if the run game stalls.
How to watch Ravens vs Colts
The game kicks off at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 13 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. CBS has the broadcast, meanwhile, with Paramount+ carrying the stream. Because this is an early Sunday window, coverage is regional, so check your local listings.
| Detail | Ravens vs Colts |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 11:00 AM MT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| TV | CBS |
| Live stream | CBS / Paramount+ |
| Week | Week 1, 2026 NFL season |
Ravens vs Colts prediction and score projection
Our Ravens vs Colts prediction is a narrow Baltimore win. The best rushing team in the slate against a defense built to stop exactly that is a genuine contest, and the Ravens hold the edge on efficiency where it matters.
The Colts have a real case, though. They outscored Baltimore last season, they convert 65.2% of red-zone trips, and their run defense is the toughest the Ravens will see this weekend. The market has priced Baltimore at 62.5% and -3.37, beyond Signal’s -2.6.
So we will take the Ravens to win, 25-22. Notably, the best rushing team on the slate against the stingiest run defense should stay close throughout. Which side carries the value, though, is a separate question from who wins, and the live read on that sits in the Signal block.
Signal rates every game on our NFL picks page. Meanwhile the title race is priced through Super Bowl LXI odds, with both conferences on the NFC and AFC Championship pages. Finally, player markets sit with our NFL player props coverage, and kickoff is confirmed on NFL.com.
Ravens vs Colts FAQ
The Ravens, narrowly. Both finished 8-9 in 2025 with almost identical point differentials, although Baltimore ran for 2,662 yards at 5.25 a carry, the best ground game of any team playing this weekend. The live win probability and the current market price both sit in the Signal block.
Spreads move all week, so both the live line and our model’s projected line sit in the Signal block rather than in this answer. As a guide: these are two 8-9 teams whose point differentials finished within thirty points of each other. Therefore the margin should be slim.
CBS has the broadcast and Paramount+ carries the stream. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 13, 2026 from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Coverage is regional in the early window.
Ravens 25-22. Baltimore’s 5.25 yards a carry meets the best run defense in the fixture at 3.87 allowed. Consequently we expect a tight, low-variance afternoon.
Both finished 8-9 in 2025 with nearly identical point differentials. Baltimore had the better running game at 5.25 yards a carry; Indianapolis scored more points and converted 65.2% in the red zone. There is very little between them.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change