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Chelsea vs Leeds: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups

Chelsea vs Leeds predicted formations

Chelsea host Leeds at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, November 21 (10:00 AM ET / 9:00 AM CT / 7:00 AM PT).

Chelsea will check on the fitness of Joshua Acheampong and Emiliano Martinez, but the bigger issues are already settled: the injured Reece James, João Pedro, Maxence Lacroix and Jamie Gittens are all out, with Jorrel Hato also sidelined. That pushes even more creative responsibility onto Morgan Rogers, Cole Palmer and Pedro Neto, the trio who have carried Chelsea’s attack through the opening ten games. Leeds have a far shorter absentee list, with only the injured Mateo Joseph definitely missing and Anton Stach and Gabriel Gudmundsson both doubtful; Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who leads the visitors with four goals, is expected to start up top. This one should be tighter than the squad lists suggest. Chelsea have won five of their ten league games this season but have also lost four, the kind of inconsistency that has kept Leeds within two points of them in the table. Leeds, for their part, have drawn five of their ten and lost only two, a pattern built on resilience rather than firepower, and that defensive discipline could make Stamford Bridge a frustrating afternoon for the hosts until one moment of quality settles it.

US viewers can watch Chelsea vs Leeds on NBC and Peacock.

Squawka Signal
Match outcome · who wins
ChelseaChelsea46%mkt 52%Our pick
DrawDraw25%mkt 26%
LeedsLeeds28%mkt 24%Value +4

Chelsea vs Leeds: Best Bets & Predictions

The market prices Under 2.5 at 45%. Signal says 50%.

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The tips · best bets
MarketMkt %Signal %Read
Correct ScoreChelsea 1-0 LeedsCole Palmer and Morgan Rogers have created 22 and 17 chances respectively, enough for Chelsea to nick a single goal against a Leeds side that has shipped defeats in only 2 of 10 games.
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11%
Model read
Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams: NoLeeds' top scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin has created just four chances for others in 866 minutes, leaving them overly reliant on one man to find the net away from home.
42%
46%
Value
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5Both sides carry modest goal differences, +3 for Chelsea and +2 for Leeds, pointing to a cagey game rather than an open one.
45%
50%
Value
Anytime ScorerMorgan Rogers to score anytimeMorgan Rogers' five goals from 23 shots make him Chelsea's likeliest source of the goal that should settle this one.
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31%
Model read
Signal edge callsRecord building · settles at full-time

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Season Form & Standings

Chelsea sit on sixteen points from their opening ten matches, with five wins and four losses either side of one draw and a plus-three goal difference. Leeds are close behind on fourteen points from the same number of games, with three wins, five draws and two defeats leaving them with a plus-two difference.

Premier League

TeamPosGPWDLGFGAGDPts
Chelsea5105141916+316
Leeds910352108+214
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Team News Predicted

Chelsea vs Leeds Predicted Lineups

Predicted XI — updated for the latest team news.

Chelsea

4-3-2-1
M. Penders
Pep Chavarria
L. Colwill
W. Fofana
M. Palestra
J. Henderson
R. Lavia
M. Caicedo
M. Rogers
C. Palmer
Pedro Neto

Leeds

3-4-2-1
J. Trafford
T. Muharemovic
N. Elvedi
J. Justin
G. Gudmundsson
A. Tanaka
E. Ampadu
J. Bogle
L. Nmecha
S. Longstaff
D. Calvert-Lewin
    Squawka · Team News

    Potential Match-Winners

    • Morgan Rogers (Chelsea): Morgan Rogers has scored 5 goals and created 17 chances from 883 minutes this season, making him Chelsea’s most involved attacking midfielder.
    • Cole Palmer (Chelsea): Cole Palmer has had more shots (30) and created more chances (22) than anyone else in Chelsea’s squad, with 3 goals and 3 assists in 880 minutes to show for it.
    • Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds): Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored 4 goals from 19 shots, 10 of them on target, in 866 minutes, giving Leeds their most direct threat on the counter.

    Recent Form

    Chelsea: W W L W L

    • 2026-11-08: Sunderland 1-0 Chelsea (L, away)
    • 2026-10-31: Chelsea 2-0 Manchester United (W, home)
    • 2026-10-24: Chelsea 0-2 Tottenham (L, home)
    • 2026-10-17: Everton 0-2 Chelsea (W, away)
    • 2026-10-10: Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth (W, home)

    Chelsea’s form reads W-W-L-W-L: a 5-1 defeat of Bournemouth and a 2-0 win at Everton were followed by a 0-2 home loss to Tottenham, before a 2-0 win over Manchester United and a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland in their last outing.

    Leeds: L D D L W

    • 2026-11-07: Leeds 1-0 Tottenham (W, home)
    • 2026-10-31: Bournemouth 2-0 Leeds (L, away)
    • 2026-10-25: Sunderland 0-0 Leeds (D, away)
    • 2026-10-18: Leeds 1-1 Manchester United (D, home)
    • 2026-10-10: Arsenal 2-1 Leeds (L, away)

    Leeds’ form reads L-D-D-L-W: a 2-1 loss at Arsenal was followed by back-to-back draws, 1-1 with Manchester United and 0-0 at Sunderland, then a 2-0 defeat at Bournemouth before a 1-0 win over Tottenham in their last outing.

    Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction

    Leeds arrive full of confidence after beating Tottenham 1-0 last time out, and on fourteen points from ten games they have shown they can graft a result anywhere. But Chelsea’s healthier scoreline advantage, sixteen points and a plus-three goal difference, plus home advantage at Stamford Bridge, should be enough to find the single goal that separates these sides. Expect a tight, low-event contest that Chelsea edge 1-0.

    Squawka Signal

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