Tottenham host Leeds United at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Monday, May 11 at 3:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM CT / 12:00 PM PT, and Spurs walk into this one with their season pinned to the wall.
Tottenham sit 17th on 37 points. West Ham, the team in the third relegation slot, are on 36 going into the gameweek. With three matches left, the gap is one result. Leeds are 14th on 43 points, all-but safe, and free to play without a knot in their stomach.
That asymmetry is the whole story. The Premier League standings have already cleared most of the noise around this match — Burnley and Wolves are down, the top five is congested, the Conference race is alive — and what remains at the foot of the table is one open seat. Spurs are doing the work to avoid it; Leeds are not. The home side also walks in catastrophically depleted: Cristian Romero, Xavi Simons and Ben Davies are out for the season, Dominic Solanke has a grade II muscle injury, Mohammed Kudus and Dejan Kulusevski are both ruled out, and Guglielmo Vicario is a 50% doubt with a hernia. Richarlison and Randal Kolo Muani are the recognised forwards available.
For Leeds, Ilia Gruev is out for the year and Gabriel Gudmundsson is sidelined, but Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Joël Piroe, Wilfried Gnonto, Brenden Aaronson, Anton Stach and Lukas Nmecha are all in the matchday pool. The visitors arrive intact. The home side does not. That is the read on this fixture before a ball is kicked.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham to win | -125 @ bet365 (55.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Spurs need this more than any other home result this season, and Leeds rarely win on the road. |
| Both teams to score: Yes | -143 @ bet365 (58.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Spurs have shipped at least one in 16 of 17 home league games; Calvert-Lewin’s 12 goals carry a real away threat. |
| Over 2.5 goals | -138 @ bet365 (57.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Spurs have conceded 54 league goals already this season; Leeds matches average 2.83 goals per game. |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score anytime | +200 @ bet365 (33.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | 12 league goals in 32 matches with an xG of 11.50, against a Spurs defense missing Romero, Davies and possibly Vicario. |
| Correct Score: 2-1 Tottenham | +800 @ bet365 (11.1%) | ⭐⭐ | Lines up with the BTTS and Over 2.5 reads; Spurs edge it on the scoreboard, but it comes with a sweat. |
The cleanest approach here is to bundle the BTTS and Over 2.5 lines with a Calvert-Lewin anytime ticket — three correlated reads on one match where neither defense looks especially trustworthy. Spurs to win is the single anchor.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
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Kalshi and Polymarket lean home, but not by as much as the home factor alone would argue. Spurs’ attacking depletion has tempered traders’ confidence; Leeds’ road resilience has the visitor price holding shape. The line is tight rather than decisive. Goals markets sit on the over/under midline. Use the widget below to compare the two providers’ Match Result book; a divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket is often a useful signal to watch.
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Season Form & Standings
Leeds sit six points and three places clear of Tottenham, but the contrast in pressure could not be greater. The visitors are mathematically safe; the hosts are still inside the live drop fight.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 14 | 35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 43 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 17 | 35 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 45 | 54 | -9 | 37 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds): 12 goals in 32 matches with an xG of 11.50 and 31 shots on target — Leeds’ clearest finisher and a profile that can hurt a defense without Romero.
- Richarlison (Spurs): 10 goals in 30 appearances at an xG of 6.18 from 1,704 minutes — outperforming the model and now the senior fit forward in this Tottenham squad.
- Brenden Aaronson (Leeds): four goals and five assists with nine big chances created — the engine in front of Anton Stach and the most likely Leeds source of the second goal if it comes.
- Micky van de Ven (Spurs): 4 goals from a center back this season, with the kind of carrying threat that punishes Leeds’ high line on transition.
Head-to-Head
Spurs have won all five of the most recent league meetings between these clubs, scoring 16 to Leeds’ 6. The October fixture this season was tight by the standards of that record.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| October 4, 2025 | Leeds 1-2 Tottenham | Premier League |
| May 28, 2023 | Leeds 1-4 Tottenham | Premier League |
| November 12, 2022 | Tottenham 4-3 Leeds | Premier League |
| February 26, 2022 | Leeds 0-4 Tottenham | Premier League |
| November 21, 2021 | Tottenham 2-1 Leeds | Premier League |
Recent Form
Tottenham Hotspur — L L D W L
- March 22, 2026: Tottenham 0-3 Nottingham Forest (loss, home)
- April 12, 2026: Sunderland 1-0 Tottenham (loss, away)
- April 18, 2026: Tottenham 2-2 Brighton (draw, home)
- April 25, 2026: Wolves 0-1 Tottenham (win, away)
- May 3, 2026: Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham (loss, away)
The Wolves win at Molineux was a 1-0 grind against a relegated team. The Villa loss reads similar in the trend. Spurs have lost four of their last five and have not won at home in this run. The injury list is doing real damage to the structure of the side.
Leeds United — D W L D W
- March 21, 2026: Leeds 0-0 Brentford (draw, home)
- April 13, 2026: Manchester United 2-1 Leeds (loss, away)
- April 18, 2026: Leeds 3-0 Wolves (win, home)
- April 22, 2026: Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds (draw, away)
- May 1, 2026: Leeds 3-1 Burnley (win, home)
Leeds are unbeaten in their last three with two wins, and Calvert-Lewin scored in the 3-1 over Burnley. The home record explains the points cushion; the road record is more average. Either way, this is a side that has done its qualifying work and can play without urgency.
Tottenham vs Leeds United Prediction
This is a match the home side has to win and a Leeds team that arrives without obvious pressure. The price on Spurs at -125 reflects the venue and the table situation more than the form, and it is not a generous one — but the Lilywhites have run out of weeks. Pair it with Both Teams To Score and you have a read consistent with how Leeds have played all season and how Tottenham’s depleted defense has looked. Spurs at -125 with bet365 is the anchor; Calvert-Lewin to score anytime at +200 is the most natural side bet alongside it. For more EPL picks across this matchday, see our Burnley vs Aston Villa preview and the wider Premier League hub and bet365 sportsbook review. Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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