Paris Saint-Germain head to Stade Louis II for an all-French affair against Monaco in the Champions League on Tuesday in the first leg of their knockout tie.
The game kicks off at 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday 17 February and below you can find our match preview and best bets.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on PSG’s exceptional attacking output and Monaco’s inefficiency in front of goal, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in backing Paris Saint-Germain to win, given their superiority in every major metric and a strong head-to-head record.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | -200 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Five of the last six meetings between these sides have produced at least three goals, and PSG’s attack averages over 21 shots per game. Monaco’s defence has conceded 14 in 8, so goals look likely once again. |
| PSG to Win to Nil | +225 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Monaco are averaging just 1 goal per game and have been shut out in multiple recent head-to-heads. PSG’s high possession and Monaco’s low conversion rate (just 5 of 19 big chances scored) makes this a value angle. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
Season Form & Standings
Both sides had to settle for the play-off route after missing out on automatic qualification to the last 16 during the league phase. PSG demonstrated their attacking quality with 21 goals scored — the second-highest tally among play-off teams — though two losses exposed occasional defensive lapses. Monaco, by contrast, struggled throughout the campaign, managing just eight goals while conceding 14, leaving them with a negative goal difference. While PSG’s four wins and 14 points secured 11th place with relative comfort, Monaco’s reliance on draws (four in eight matches) and inability to convert chances left them languishing in 21st position with just 10 points.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 14 |
| Monaco | 21 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 10 |
Potential Match-Winners
•Ousmane Dembélé (PSG): Among the most creative wide men in Europe, Dembélé’s dribbling and delivery have contributed to PSG’s 15 assists this season. Expect him to test Monaco’s full-backs repeatedly.
•Folarin Balogun (Monaco): Monaco’s main threat, Balogun needs to improve his finishing, with Monaco having missed 22 big chances. If he can be clinical, he gives the hosts hope.
•Takumi Minamino (Monaco): Creative spark for Monaco, Minamino is their best chance of unlocking a PSG side that dominates possession.
Head-to-Head
Last 5 Meetings
PSG have edged the last 5 encounters, winning 3, drawing 1, and losing 1. Four of these matches produced at least three goals, underlining the attacking nature when these two sides meet.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | Monaco 1-0 PSG | Ligue 1 |
| 07/02/25 | PSG 4-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 18/12/24 | Monaco 2-4 PSG | Ligue 1 |
| 01/03/24 | Monaco 0-0 PSG | Ligue 1 |
| 24/11/23 | PSG 5-2 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
Conclusion: Will Monaco resist PSG’s onslaught?
Despite Monaco’s upset win in the last head-to-head, the weight of evidence points to Paris Saint-Germain having too much quality — especially in attack and midfield. With Monaco’s wastefulness in front of goal and defensive vulnerabilities, it’s hard to look past PSG this time. Backing PSG to win to Nil at +225 with Bet365 looks the best call for value and probability. Expect goals, and don’t rule out PSG shutting Monaco out completely.
Odds correct at the time of writing.
More Champions League stats: UCL standings | Top scorers | Assist leaders | Full UCL stats hub