Leeds welcome already-relegated Burnley to Elland Road on Friday night with the hosts unbeaten in five and looking to keep their late-season run going against a Clarets side that has lost four on the bounce.
Our Leeds vs Burnley prediction has the home side winning, Calvert-Lewin to score and value on Over 2.5 against the league’s leakiest defence.
The market reflects the gap between them; the form lines underline it.
Kick-off is 8:00 PM local (3:00 PM ET) on Friday, May 1. Leeds are 15th in the Premier League on 40 points, six clear of the drop zone with four games to play and effectively safe. Burnley are 19th on 20 points, mathematically relegated already, and have not won a Premier League match since beating Crystal Palace 3-2 at Selhurst Park on 11 February. The Clarets did the double over Leeds last time these sides met, winning 2-0 at Turf Moor in October — the home side will be looking to settle that score.
bet365 make Leeds heavy home favourites at -239 with Burnley out at +650. Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s eleven Premier League goals make him the cleanest anytime-goalscorer pick on the card at -111.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds to win | -239 @ bet365 (70.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Unbeaten in five at home and on the road, hosting a side already down and on a four-match losing run. Form, venue and stakes all line up. |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin anytime goalscorer | -111 @ bet365 (52.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Eleven league goals, 30 shots on target and an xG of 11.38 from 31 matches. Leeds’ top scorer against the league’s leakiest defence. |
| Over 2.5 goals | -150 @ bet365 (60.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Burnley have shipped 68 goals (most in the league) and conceded three or more in four of their last six. Leeds put three past Wolves a fortnight ago. |
| Both teams to score — Yes | -106 @ bet365 (51.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Burnley have scored in three of their last five even on the losing run; Leeds have conceded in four of their last five at Elland Road. |
| Correct Score: 2-1 Leeds | +850 @ bet365 (10.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Leeds have produced multi-goal home wins lately (3-0 over Wolves, 2-1 at Old Trafford) while Burnley have conceded three or more in four of their last six. A two-goal cushion with a late Burnley consolation fits the form lines. |
Our approach: Leeds to win with Calvert-Lewin anytime goalscorer is the clean parlay at bet365; Over 2.5 goals stands up as the value single.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
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The block below pulls live Kalshi and Polymarket pricing on Leeds vs Burnley alongside the implied win-probability split. Holding those crowd-funded numbers next to the bet365 lines higher up the page is a quick way to read the room: when prediction-market pricing diverges from the sportsbook, the gap is where the sharper read usually sits.
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Season Form & Standings
Leeds sit 15th, six points clear of the drop zone and effectively safe with four to play; Burnley are 19th and already down, alongside Wolves. The full Premier League standings show the gap between the comfortable mid-table sides and the two clubs already planning for next season.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 15 | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 40 |
| Burnley | 19 | 34 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 34 | 68 | -34 | 20 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds United): Eleven Premier League goals and 30 shots on target in 31 matches, with an xG of 11.38. Leeds’ top scorer and the obvious focal point against a Burnley side that have conceded the most goals in the division.
- Brenden Aaronson (Leeds United): Four goals and five assists from 34 matches, with nine big chances created and 27 successful dribbles. The creative hub when Leeds press forward.
- Jaidon Anthony (Burnley): Seven goals and one assist with 32 successful dribbles in 34 matches, an xG of 4.09 and an xA of 4.02. Burnley’s most dangerous attacker by a clear margin.
- Zian Flemming (Burnley): Nine goals from 28 appearances, 19 shots on target and an xG of 5.72 — comfortably outperforming his underlying numbers despite making only 17 starts.
Head-to-Head
Burnley have won the most recent meeting between these sides — a 2-0 home win at Turf Moor on October 18, 2025. Beyond that the pair have not faced off in the top flight since 2021/22, and the historical record over the last five Premier League meetings reads three Leeds wins, one Burnley win and a draw. Every meeting has produced at least one goal.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Burnley 2-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| Jan 2, 2022 | Leeds 3-1 Burnley | Premier League |
| Aug 29, 2021 | Burnley 1-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| May 15, 2021 | Burnley 0-4 Leeds | Premier League |
| Dec 27, 2020 | Leeds 1-0 Burnley | Premier League |
Recent Form
Leeds United — D W W D D
- Apr 22, 2026: Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds (Draw, away)
- Apr 18, 2026: Leeds 3-0 Wolves (Win, home)
- Apr 13, 2026: Manchester United 1-2 Leeds (Win, away)
- Mar 21, 2026: Leeds 0-0 Brentford (Draw, home)
- Mar 15, 2026: Crystal Palace 0-0 Leeds (Draw, away)
Unbeaten in five with two wins and three draws, the run stretching back to the 0-1 home defeat to Sunderland on 3 March 2026. The 2-1 win at Old Trafford in mid-April is the result that has caught the eye; the goalless draw with Brentford was the dullest of the lot.
Burnley — D L L L L
- Apr 22, 2026: Burnley 0-1 Manchester City (Loss, home)
- Apr 19, 2026: Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley (Loss, away)
- Apr 11, 2026: Burnley 0-2 Brighton (Loss, home)
- Mar 21, 2026: Fulham 3-1 Burnley (Loss, away)
- Mar 14, 2026: Burnley 0-0 Bournemouth (Draw, home)
Four straight defeats since the goalless draw with Bournemouth, and no Premier League win since beating Crystal Palace 3-2 at Selhurst Park on 11 February — that’s eight matches without a win. The Manchester City defeat was a credible 0-1 with the visitors limited to a single goal; the Forest game was less forgivable.
Leeds vs Burnley Prediction
All in all, this should be a Leeds win. The form lines back it, the venue backs it, and Burnley have lost four straight against opposition with similar quality to what Leeds will put out. Calvert-Lewin against the league’s leakiest defence is the kind of pick that prices itself, and there’s enough goal threat at both ends to make Over 2.5 the cleaner of the totals lines. Back Leeds to win with Calvert-Lewin anytime goalscorer at bet365 as the cleanest read of the Friday-night opener.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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