Burnley vs Aston Villa kicks off at Turf Moor on Sunday, May 10 at 9:00 AM ET / 8:00 AM CT / 6:00 AM PT, and the table tells you everything about the gap between these two.
The Clarets are mathematically down, locked into 19th on 20 points after a 3-1 loss at Leeds last weekend. Aston Villa, by contrast, sit fifth on 58 points, level with Liverpool but behind on goal difference, with the last Champions League berth still in their hands.
For Burnley, the season ends in numbers that will sting for a while: 35 goals scored, 71 conceded, a -36 goal difference. There is nothing to chase here except a final home performance worth remembering. Villa arrive with a clearer brief — keep Bournemouth, six points back in sixth, at arm’s length and stay within touching distance of Liverpool until the final whistle of the season.
That asymmetry shapes the betting card. Villa are short-priced favorites at bet365, the goals market leans heavily towards over 2.5, and the goalscorer prices on Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers reflect a Burnley defense that has shipped goals in 27 of 35 matches.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to win | -167 @ bet365 (62.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Villa beat Burnley 2-1 at Villa Park earlier this season and have lost only once on the road in their past five away league trips. |
| Aston Villa to win 3-1 | +1200 @ bet365 (7.7%) | ⭐⭐ | Villa’s away output has them averaging more than two goals on the road, and Burnley have shipped at least one in 13 of their 17 home league games — a 3-1 visitors’ win lines up with Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. |
| Ollie Watkins to score anytime | +130 @ bet365 (43.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Watkins leads Villa with 11 league goals and 9.95 xG; only Morgan Rogers has more shots on target for the away side this season. |
| Over 2.5 goals | -138 @ bet365 (58.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Burnley average just over two goals shipped per match. Villa have scored in 12 of 15 away league fixtures. |
| Both teams to score – Yes | -125 @ bet365 (55.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Burnley have scored in eight of their last 10 home league games, and Lyle Foster, Zian Flemming and Jaidon Anthony all carry attacking threat. |
The cleanest read is to lean on Villa’s away form and Watkins’ goal-getting record, with the over-2.5 line as a supporting bet. Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
Note for US readers: Polymarket is now live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, available in most states except Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New US users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05. Market prices shown are real-money figures from the Polymarket platform. Kalshi, also CFTC-regulated, trades in all 50 states.
Kalshi and Polymarket price Aston Villa as decisive favourites — the visitors chase fifth and Burnley’s relegation has flattened the home market. The line is wide rather than tight. Goals markets nudge over: Villa’s road output and Burnley’s defensive numbers both feed that side. The widget below merges the two providers’ Match Result book in one view.
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Season Form & Standings
The two clubs sit 38 points and 16 league places apart. The full Premier League table shows just how stretched the 2025/26 season has been at both ends.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 5 | 35 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 48 | 44 | +4 | 58 |
| Burnley | 19 | 35 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 20 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa): 11 league goals from 9.95 xG, with 30 shots on target across 2,582 minutes — the away side’s clearest route to a goal.
- Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa): Nine goals, five assists, and 11 big chances created in 35 starts — averaging a goal contribution every 222 minutes.
- Lyle Foster (Burnley): Three goals from 2.62 xG in 1,351 minutes; the most likely Burnley starter to threaten Emi Martinez.
- Youri Tielemans (Aston Villa): Four assists and 2.76 xA from a deeper midfield role — the metronome who tilts games once Villa get on top.
Head-to-Head
Villa have won five of the last nine league meetings between these clubs, with the Clarets winning just once. The reverse fixture in October ended 2-1 to the home side at Villa Park.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-1 Burnley | Premier League |
| Dec 30, 2023 | Aston Villa 3-2 Burnley | Premier League |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Burnley 1-3 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| May 19, 2022 | Aston Villa 1-1 Burnley | Premier League |
| May 7, 2022 | Burnley 1-3 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Recent Form
Burnley – L L L L L
- Mar 14: Burnley 0-0 Bournemouth (D, home)
- Mar 21: Fulham 3-1 Burnley (L, away)
- Apr 11: Burnley 0-2 Brighton (L, home)
- Apr 19: Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley (L, away)
- Apr 22: Burnley 0-1 Manchester City (L, home)
- May 1: Leeds 3-1 Burnley (L, away)
Six matches without a win across March and April, with a goal difference of -13 across those games. Mike Tresor, Jaidon Anthony and Lyle Foster have shouldered most of the goal threat.
Aston Villa – W W L W L
- Mar 22: Aston Villa 2-0 West Ham (W, home)
- Apr 12: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa (D, away)
- Apr 19: Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland (W, home)
- Apr 25: Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa (L, away)
- May 3: Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham (L, home)
Two losses in the past three has tightened the race for fifth. Boubacar Kamara is out for the season and John McGinn is touch-and-go, but Watkins, Rogers, Tielemans, Sancho and Pau Torres are all available — enough firepower to handle a side already mathematically beaten.
Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction
Villa take this. The Clarets have nothing to play for beyond pride, while Villa cannot afford a slip with Bournemouth six points back chasing fifth. Watkins is the obvious pick at +130 to score anytime at bet365; pair it with Villa to win for a tidier read on the result. The other Sunday-afternoon kickoff at Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle sits in the same time slot, and you’ll find the full Premier League hub for the rest of the run-in. Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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