Bournemouth host Crystal Palace at the Vitality Stadium on Sunday afternoon with the Cherries chasing a Conference League spot, unbeaten in eight Premier League matches and the home record at this venue against this opponent backing them up. Palace arrive without a win on the road in their last three.
Our Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace prediction has the home side winning, Evanilson to score and BTTS Yes the cleaner pairing for the Vitality.
Kick-off is 2:00 PM local (9:00 AM ET) on Sunday, May 3. Bournemouth are 7th in the Premier League on 49 points and currently hold the Conference League spot, one point behind 6th-placed Brighton in the cluster behind the top five. They have not lost since the 2-1 defeat at Everton on 10 February. Crystal Palace sit 13th on 43 points, comfortably clear of the relegation conversation but a long way from the European places. The reverse fixture in October ended 3-3 at Selhurst Park.
bet365 make Bournemouth home favourites at -154 with Crystal Palace +375 and the draw +320. Evanilson at +140 for anytime goalscorer is the cleanest read on the card.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win | -154 @ bet365 (60.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Unbeaten in eight, holding a European spot, and at home to a Palace side that has lost three of their last four on the road. |
| Evanilson anytime goalscorer | +140 @ bet365 (41.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Six goals from 32 matches with 22 shots on target and an xG of 11.42 — the underlying numbers say his finishing has been the limiting factor, not his chance creation. |
| Both teams to score — Yes | -143 @ bet365 (58.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | The reverse fixture was 3-3; the last three Premier League meetings between these clubs have produced 11 goals between them. |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta anytime goalscorer | +187 @ bet365 (34.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Ten Premier League goals from 27 matches with 30 shots on target and an xG of 7.55. Palace’s leading scorer and the visitors’ clearest threat. |
| Correct Score: 2-1 Bournemouth | +800 @ bet365 (11.1%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Bournemouth at home unbeaten in eight; Palace good enough to find a goal but not enough to win at the Vitality, where they have not won in any of the last five meetings. 2-1 fits both the result-of-the-day call and the BTTS Yes pairing. |
| Over 2.5 goals | -150 @ bet365 (60.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | The reverse fixture finished 3-3 at Selhurst Park; Bournemouth have hit Over 2.5 in four of their last five at home and Palace away games have produced 2+ goals in five straight. |
Our approach: Bournemouth to win with Evanilson anytime goalscorer is the parlay at bet365; Mateta anytime is the value Palace counter on a card that has BTTS written all over it.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&Cs, time limits, and exclusions apply.
Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
Note for US readers: Polymarket is now live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, available in most states except Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New US users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05. Market prices shown are real-money figures from the Polymarket platform. Kalshi, also CFTC-regulated, trades in all 50 states.
The block below pulls live Kalshi and Polymarket pricing on Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace alongside the implied win-probability split. Holding those crowd-funded numbers next to the bet365 lines higher up the page is a quick way to read the room: when prediction-market pricing diverges from the sportsbook, the gap is where the sharper read usually sits.
21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
Season Form & Standings
Bournemouth’s 7th place is the story of the season — promoted side turned European hopefuls. Palace are 13th, comfortably mid-table and clear of the relegation conversation. The full Premier League standings show how tight the cluster around the European places remains and how much daylight has opened between the comfortable mid-table sides and the relegation slot still in play.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth | 7 | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 52 | 52 | 0 | 49 |
| Crystal Palace | 13 | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 43 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Evanilson (AFC Bournemouth): Six Premier League goals from 32 matches, with 22 shots on target and an xG of 11.42 — comfortably underperforming his underlying numbers, which says a goal feels overdue.
- Marcus Tavernier (AFC Bournemouth): Six goals and four assists from 30 matches, with 20 shots on target, 32 successful dribbles, six big chances created and an xA of 4.47. Bournemouth’s most rounded attacking output.
- Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace): Ten Premier League goals from 27 matches, 30 shots on target and an xG of 7.55. Palace’s leading scorer and the visitors’ clearest path to a goal.
- Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace): Seven goals from 23 appearances with 16 shots on target and an xG of 5.51. The pace and width that complements Mateta’s penalty-area work.
Head-to-Head
Bournemouth have won two and drawn three of the last five Premier League meetings; Palace have not won this fixture in any of those five. The reverse fixture this season ended 3-3 at Selhurst Park.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Crystal Palace 3-3 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Crystal Palace 0-0 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Bournemouth 0-0 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Bournemouth 1-0 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| Dec 6, 2023 | Crystal Palace 0-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
Recent Form
AFC Bournemouth — D W W D D
- Apr 22, 2026: Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds (Draw, home)
- Apr 18, 2026: Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth (Win, away)
- Apr 11, 2026: Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth (Win, away)
- Mar 20, 2026: Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United (Draw, home)
- Mar 14, 2026: Burnley 0-0 Bournemouth (Draw, away)
Unbeaten in eight Premier League matches stretching back to the 2-1 defeat at Everton on 10 February 2026, with two wins and six draws across that run. The 2-1 win at the Emirates is the standout result; the back-to-back away wins at Arsenal and Newcastle are the kind of evidence that explains why this side are pushing for Europe.
Crystal Palace — L D W D W
- Apr 25, 2026: Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace (Loss, away)
- Apr 20, 2026: Crystal Palace 0-0 West Ham (Draw, home)
- Apr 12, 2026: Crystal Palace 2-1 Newcastle (Win, home)
- Mar 15, 2026: Crystal Palace 0-0 Leeds (Draw, home)
- Mar 5, 2026: Tottenham 1-3 Crystal Palace (Win, away)
Two wins, two draws and a defeat in the last five — encouraging at home, less so on the road, with the 3-1 defeat at Anfield last weekend the freshest data point. The 3-1 win at Tottenham in early March is the away result that says Palace are still capable when the legs are right.
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Prediction
The form lines back the home side, the H2H record backs the home side, and the price reflects both. Bournemouth at home to a Palace side that has not won here in any of the last five meetings should be the result of the day on Sunday afternoon. Evanilson at +140 is the goalscorer pick that pairs cleanly with the result; Mateta at +187 is the visitors’ counter for those wanting to back both ends. Back Bournemouth to win with Evanilson anytime goalscorer at bet365 as the cleanest read of the early Sunday window.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER