Borussia Dortmund travel to Bergamo for a Champions League knockout tie against Atalanta, with the German side aiming to reach the last 16 on Wednesday evening.
Having recently triumphed 2-0 in Dortmund, confidence is high for the visitors, but Atalanta’s underlying numbers suggest this tie is far from over.
Kick-off is set for 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday at the New Balance Arena, where both teams carry plenty of attacking threat despite differing fortunes in front of goal.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -163 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Both teams have scored in two of the last three meetings. Dortmund are averaging over 2 goals per game in Europe (21 in 9), while Atalanta’s xG (17.43) suggests they’re due to convert more. Defensive slips on both sides add value to this market. |
| Borussia Dortmund to Win | +225 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Dortmund have won two of the last three head-to-heads, including a convincing 2-0 win just days ago. They’ve outperformed their xG by nearly double, showing ruthless finishing, and feature all three of the top attacking contributors so far in the competition. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -150 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Recent H2Hs average 2.7 goals per game. Dortmund matches have seen 38 goals in 9 (over 4 per game), while Atalanta create chances but struggle to convert. Expect open football as both sides need a result. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
Season Form & Standings
Both sides had to navigate the play-off route after missing out on automatic qualification to the last 16 during the league phase. Atalanta showed greater consistency with four wins from eight matches, demonstrating defensive solidity with an even goal difference.
Dortmund, meanwhile, proved more unpredictable—capable of explosive attacking performances that yielded 19 goals, but equally vulnerable at the back, with 17 conceded.
While Atalanta’s balanced approach earned them 13 points and 15th place, Dortmund’s style left them 17th with 11 points, despite their superior firepower suggesting they could hurt any opponent on their day. Despite this, after a 2-0 first leg defeat, Atalanta have it all to do.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 15 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 17 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 11 |
Potential Match-Winners
•Serhou Guirassy (Borussia Dortmund): 4 goals, 3 assists, and a remarkable 62.5% shot accuracy in Europe this season. Averaging a direct goal involvement every 155 minutes.
•Felix Nmecha (Borussia Dortmund): 11 big chance assists, 3 goals, and 86.6% pass accuracy – Dortmund’s main creative threat, setting up more key chances than any other player from Dortmund or Atalanta.
•Julian Brandt (Borussia Dortmund): 3 goals, 5 big chance assists, and a reliable presence both in front of goal and in build-up play.
•Atalanta: While no individual stands out statistically, expect regulars like Scamacca or Raspadori to shoulder attacking responsibility, especially at home where Atalanta’s xG remains high (17.43 across 9 games).
Head-to-Head: Last 3 Meetings
Borussia Dortmund have the edge in the recent head-to-head, unbeaten in their last three against Atalanta with two wins and a draw. Recent contests have been competitive, but Dortmund’s firepower has proved decisive.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 17/02/26 | Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Atalanta | Europe |
| 22/02/18 | Atalanta 1-1 Borussia Dortmund | Europe |
| 15/02/18 | Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Atalanta | Europe |
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
This tie has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair, with Dortmund’s clinical finishing and Atalanta’s strong xG hinting at goals at both ends. The visitors’ head-to-head record and superior attacking statistics make Borussia Dortmund to win at +225 with Bet365 a tempting value, but the safest play remains both teams to score at -163 with Bet365. Whether the hosts can finally convert their chances or Dortmund’s forwards keep their hot streak alive, this is set to be a thrilling European contest.
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