Arsenal welcome Atlético Madrid to the Emirates on Tuesday night. A Champions League final is on the line, and Diego Simeone’s bench has filled back up just in time.
Kick-off is Tuesday, May 5 at 3:00 PM ET. The tie sits level at 1-1 from a tense draw at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano last week.
Our Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid prediction has shifted with the latest team news. Atlético rested Julián Álvarez, Alexander Sørloth and Giuliano Simeone at Valencia on Saturday — knocks rather than tournament-ending injuries. All three are expected to be available. Centre-back José Giménez also travels after eight games out. Only Pablo Barrios (hamstring) and Nicolás González (thigh) are confirmed absentees. Mikel Arteta has Martin Ødegaard and Kai Havertz back in his matchday squad. Jurrien Timber and Mikel Merino remain Arsenal’s only long-term outs.
Arsenal know what beating Atlético looks like. They thumped them 4-0 at this same ground in the Champions League league phase back in October. The bookmakers still side firmly with the hosts. bet365 have the Gunners at -175 to win on the night, with Atlético out at +450.
Best Bets & Predictions: Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid
Our Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid prediction headlines a Best Bets card stacked around the goals markets and Arsenal’s home form.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to win | -175 @ bet365 (63.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Atlético’s attack is back but Arsenal still won the previous meeting 4-0 here, and the Emirates has been a hard ground to score on this season. |
| Viktor Gyökeres to score anytime | +125 @ bet365 (44.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Five UCL goals on an xG of 5.20 — the focal point of the Arsenal attack and Atlético are without anchor midfielder Pablo Barrios in front of the back four. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -106 @ bet365 (51.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | With Álvarez and Sørloth restored, Atlético can carry a threat into the Emirates, and Arsenal have conceded in three of their last four UCL ties. |
| Over 2.5 goals | -111 @ bet365 (52.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | A 1-1 first leg leaves Atlético needing the game, not the result. They have to push, which opens space for Arsenal’s counter. |
| Correct Score: 2-1 Arsenal | +750 @ bet365 (11.8%) | ⭐⭐ | Squares with the BTTS-Yes and Over 2.5 reads — an Arsenal win with Atlético landing one in reply is the cleanest big-price scoreline. |
| Julián Álvarez to score anytime | +300 @ bet365 (25.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Ten Champions League goals this season and Atlético’s only proven match-winner — fresh after a weekend off and priced at a tournament-high level. |
| Gabriel Martinelli to score anytime | +260 @ bet365 (27.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Top-scoring Gunner in the tournament with six. The Atlético right side gets stretched if Simeone is short of training minutes. |
Our approach: Lead with Arsenal to win. Add Gyökeres anytime as the strongest player prop. Álvarez anytime is the under-priced add now that he’s fit.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&Cs, time limits, and exclusions apply.
Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
Note for US readers: Polymarket is now live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, available in most states except Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New US users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05. Market prices shown are real-money figures from the Polymarket platform. Kalshi, also CFTC-regulated, trades in all 50 states.
The merged Kalshi and Polymarket read sides clearly with Arsenal in our Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid prediction. Traders have the Gunners as the favourite on a 1-1 leg with Atlético needing the game. The draw is second, the visitors a distant third — even with Álvarez and Sørloth restored to the matchday squad. That broadly tracks bet365’s -175 line, and prediction markets and sportsbooks point the same way. The live widget below pulls Kalshi and Polymarket pricing into one view and updates through kick-off. Click into either venue for a position outside the sportsbook market.
Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
Champions League Run & Aggregate State
The tie sits 1-1 going into Tuesday after Mikel Merino’s first-half opener was cancelled out at the Wanda. Arsenal had the better chances over the 90 minutes but couldn’t find a second; Jan Oblak kept the visitors level.
Arsenal got here by topping their league phase and coming through Sporting CP in the round of 16. Atlético’s path went through Barcelona. A 2-0 win at the Camp Nou and a 2-1 defeat at home saw the Spanish side advance on aggregate.
Tuesday is straight 90 minutes plus extra-time and penalties if level on aggregate at the final whistle. No away-goals tiebreak. Score one and Arsenal hold all the cards.
Potential Match-Winners
- Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal): Five Champions League goals in 11 starts on an xG of 5.20. He has hit the target a tournament-leading 13 times. With Havertz back but short of starts, the Sweden international is again the obvious lead.
- Gabriel Martinelli (Arsenal): Top-scoring Gunner in the tournament with six. He’s also added two assists from a wide left role and an xG of 1.51. He should test an Atlético right side where Giuliano Simeone has been off duty for ten days.
- Declan Rice (Arsenal): Five big chances created in 11 UCL appearances and an xA of 2.54. Arsenal’s primary creator from deep, with Ødegaard now fit enough to be selected alongside him.
- Julián Álvarez (Atlético Madrid): Ten Champions League goals this season at an xG of 7.84. The only Atlético attacker who has consistently turned tight games. Rested at the weekend, he carries the visitors’ entire scoring load into the Emirates.
- Antoine Griezmann (Atlético Madrid): Two goals and three assists in just nine UCL starts, with an xG of 3.96. The 35-year-old will need to find Álvarez early if Atlético are going to drag this tie into extra-time.
Head-to-Head
Arsenal won the league-phase meeting 4-0 in October — the heaviest Champions League defeat Atlético have suffered under Simeone. The clubs only meet rarely. Atlético edged the 2018 Europa League semi-final on aggregate after a 1-1 draw in north London.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Atlético Madrid 1-1 Arsenal | UCL Semi-final Leg 1 |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Arsenal 4-0 Atlético Madrid | UCL League Phase |
| May 3, 2018 | Atlético Madrid 1-0 Arsenal | Europa League SF Leg 2 |
| Apr 26, 2018 | Arsenal 1-1 Atlético Madrid | Europa League SF Leg 1 |
Recent Form
Both clubs come into the Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid prediction with mixed late-season form on either side of the first leg.
Arsenal — D L W D W
- April 15: D 0-0 vs Sporting CP (UCL)
- April 19: L 1-2 at Manchester City (Premier League)
- April 25: W 1-0 vs Newcastle (Premier League)
- April 29: D 1-1 at Atlético Madrid (UCL SF Leg 1)
- May 2: W 3-0 vs Fulham (Premier League)
Up and down across competitions. The Premier League title is gone, so Arsenal can put their full focus on Tuesday. The Fulham win on Saturday was a routine professional job.
Atlético Madrid — L L W D W
- April 14: L 1-2 vs Barcelona (UCL QF Leg 1)
- April 22: L 2-3 at Elche (La Liga)
- April 25: W 3-2 vs Athletic Club (La Liga)
- April 29: D 1-1 vs Arsenal (UCL SF Leg 1)
- May 2: W 2-0 at Valencia (La Liga)
Two wins in three is a fair return. The Valencia trip was a deliberate rotation rather than a stress test. Saturday’s teamsheet handed debuts to Iker Luque and Cubo while Álvarez, Sørloth and Simeone watched on with knocks. Simeone gets a near-full deck back for the Emirates.
Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid Prediction
The injury picture has flipped from the worst-case Simeone was facing 48 hours ago. Álvarez, Sørloth, Giuliano Simeone and Giménez are all expected to be available. Atlético arrive at the Emirates with a forward line that can win them the tie. The question is whether they can take it to a Gunners side. Arsenal have not lost a Champions League knockout home leg since the PSG semi-final last year. The Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid prediction stays with the hosts at -175. Saka and Martinelli running at a stretched defence is the cleanest read of the night.
The Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid prediction shortlist: 2-1 Arsenal at +750 is the bigger-price pick if you want value on the new BTTS-Yes read. Take Gyökeres anytime at +125 as the cleanest single, or follow the bet365 line on Arsenal to win here. Full Champions League standings and the rest of our preview cards are on the UCL hub.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER