Queretaro FC vs Toluca: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups

Queretaro FC host Toluca at Estadio Corregidora on Saturday, August 22 (7:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM CT / 4:00 PM PT).

Queretaro FC and Toluca both check in with clean bills of health, no fresh absences flagged on either side ahead of this one. Ali Avila leads the home attack after 3 goals from 10 shots, with 6 of those on target, while Santiago Homenchenko has chipped in with 5 chances created behind him. Toluca will look to Alexis Vega and Jorge Diaz to carry the same threat they’ve shown all season, Vega racking up 9 shots and Diaz leading the visitors with 7 chances created.

Both sides sit level on 7 points from 4 games apiece, but Toluca’s +3 goal difference edges out Queretaro’s +1, and it’s the away side Signal gives the nod to here. Neither team found the net in their most recent outing — Queretaro drew 0-0 at Pumas UNAM, Toluca did the same at Atlante FC — and that low-key look sets the tone for a cagey affair. Expect a tight, low-scoring game where one moment of quality from Toluca’s front line settles it.

US viewers can watch Queretaro FC vs Toluca on ViX, TUDN or Fox.

Queretaro FC vs Toluca: Best Bets & Predictions

A cagey Liga MX battle points to a narrow Toluca win in Queretaro

Where are you following from? Odds & offers below update to match.

🇺🇸 United StatesTrade on Kalshi 🌎 Outside the USOdds via bet365

TolucaTop pickToluca arrive with the better underlying numbers, a +3 goal difference from 4 games to Queretaro's +1, despite the sides being level on 7 points.

42%win prob.-116 @ bet365

0-1 Queretaro FCThis has the makings of a tight, low-scoring game, and Queretaro FC's home form — including a 0-1 loss to Club America among their last 4 — shows they can go without scoring against good opposition.

10%chance900 @ bet365

NoBoth sides drew 0-0 in their most recent outing — Queretaro FC at Pumas UNAM, Toluca at Atlante FC — suggesting a clean sheet for at least one side is well within reach.

59%chance137 @ bet365

Under 2.5With both teams drawing blanks most recently and Queretaro's own goal difference sitting at just +1, goals look likely to be in short supply.

66%chance135 @ bet365

Alexis Vega to scoreVega leads Toluca's forward line for shot volume with nine shots and four on target already this season, giving him the clearest route to a goal in this one.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐chanceopening soon @ bet365

Our approach: We weigh the four-game form line, the shot and chance data from each side's key performers, and how the market prices this one, to land on the picks below.

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Season Form & Standings

Queretaro FC and Toluca are locked together on seven points from 4 games each, with Toluca’s +3 goal difference the shade better than Queretaro’s +1 — the reason this one splits so finely across the picks below.

Liga MX

Potential Match-Winners

• Ali Avila (Queretaro FC): He’s been the sharpest man in either box, 3 goals from 10 shots with 6 on target already this term.
• Jorge Diaz (Toluca): His 7 chances created lead all Toluca players, and he already has a goal to his name from 6 shots.
• Alexis Vega (Toluca): 9 shots and 4 on target have brought him a goal already, and he looks Toluca’s most likely source of a breakthrough.

Recent Form

Queretaro FC: L W W D

• 2026-08-16: Pumas UNAM 0-0 Queretaro FC (D, away)
• 2026-08-01: Queretaro FC 3-2 Tigres UANL (W, home)
• 2026-07-26: Pachuca 1-2 Queretaro FC (W, away)
• 2026-07-18: Queretaro FC 0-1 Club America (L, home)

Queretaro FC come into this off an L W W D sequence. That’s a 0-1 home loss to Club America, a 2-1 win at Pachuca, a 3-2 home win over Tigres UANL, and a 0-0 draw away at Pumas UNAM most recently.

Toluca: W L W D

• 2026-08-16: Atlante FC 0-0 Toluca (D, away)
• 2026-08-02: Toluca 3-1 Necaxa (W, home)
• 2026-07-21: Toluca 1-2 Pumas UNAM (L, home)
• 2026-07-18: Chivas 0-2 Toluca (W, away)

Toluca have gone W L W D across the same span. That’s a 2-0 away win at Chivas, a 1-2 home defeat to Pumas UNAM, a 3-1 home win over Necaxa, and a 0-0 draw away at Atlante FC in their last outing.

Queretaro FC vs Toluca Prediction

Signal makes this a tight, low-scoring night in Queretaro, and it’s Toluca to edge it 0-1. Both sides come in level on seven points from four games, but Toluca’s superior +3 goal difference against Queretaro’s +1 is enough to swing this one their way without either attack finding a second goal. Expect Under 2.5 goals and no joy in Both Teams to Score, with Alexis Vega the man best placed to land the goal that decides it.