Kansas City run at 5.08 yards a carry, the best average in the NFL, and concede 1.5 touchdowns a game. Atlanta rate 76.4 through the air, 29th. Our Chiefs vs Falcons prediction has a 6-2 team against a 3-6 one.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 6-2 at +59. The Atlanta Falcons are 3-6 and have conceded 223 points in nine games.
Chiefs vs Falcons: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Chiefs vs Falcons: 2026 form so far
A 6-2 team that runs it better than anyone against a 3-6 team that cannot throw. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defense has actually allowed.
Chiefs attack against the Falcons defense
| Per game | Chiefs offense | Falcons allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 246.4 | 228.0 |
| Rushing yards | 137.8 | 118.8 |
| Yards per carry | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Passer rating | 101.8 | 96.3 |
| Touchdowns | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Third-down conversion | 41.7% | 42.6% |
| Red-zone conversion | 63.3% | 64.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.4 | 2.2 |
Falcons attack against the Chiefs defense
| Per game | Falcons offense | Chiefs allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 185.4 | 210.4 |
| Rushing yards | 137.2 | 97.5 |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| Passer rating | 76.4 | 79.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 34.9% | 36.7% |
| Red-zone conversion | 61.5% | 36.8% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Kansas City concede 36.8% in the red zone, second in the NFL, and 1.5 touchdowns a game.
Kansas City Chiefs 6-2 · average margin +7.4
Atlanta Falcons 3-6 · average margin -3.9
Chiefs vs Falcons quarterback matchup
Patrick Mahomes completed 23 of 31 for 242 yards and two touchdowns at 117.9 in a 35-12 win. Michael Penix Jr. went 20 of 31 for 162 with a touchdown and an interception at 74.9.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes | 23/31, 242 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 117.9 rtg | 177/263, 2037 yds, 14 TD, 4 INT, 101.8 rtg (8 games) |
| Falcons | Michael Penix Jr. | 20/31, 162 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 74.9 rtg | 124/199, 1444 yds, 10 TD, 6 INT, 88.4 rtg (7 games) |
Chiefs vs Falcons injury report and team news
Kansas City average 5.08 yards a carry, the best figure in the NFL.
Kansas City concede 36.8% of red-zone trips, second in the league.
Atlanta rate 76.4 through the air, 29th in the NFL.
The best run game in football against a team that has to throw to keep up
Kansas City are 6-2 and the run game is the quietest part of it: 5.08 a carry is the best mark in the NFL and 138 yards a game is fifth.
The defense is the louder half. Opponents score 1.5 touchdowns a game against Kansas City and convert 36.8% in the red zone, second only to Minnesota, rating 79.4.
Atlanta can run it themselves at 4.79 a carry, fourth in the league. What they cannot do is throw: 185 yards a game at 76.4 is 25th and 29th, and that is the half of the game Kansas City take away.
Their own numbers
What opponents have managed against them
Players to watch
- Patrick Mahomes (KC, QB): 242 yards and two touchdowns at 117.9 last week.
- Rashee Rice (KC, WR): A primary target in an offense scoring 3.0 touchdowns a game.
- Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB): Fronts a run game averaging 4.79 a carry, fourth in the NFL.
- Drake London (ATL, WR): Led Atlanta’s receivers in the defeat to Cincinnati.
How to watch Chiefs vs Falcons
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 15 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT. CBS has the broadcast.
| Detail | Chiefs vs Falcons |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, November 15, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM CT / 10:00 AM PT |
| Venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| TV | CBS |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Paramount+ |
| Week | Week 10, 2026 NFL season |
Chiefs vs Falcons prediction and score projection
Kansas City win 27-16. Atlanta’s run game travels and their passing does not, and Kansas City are built to make a team one-dimensional.
The live spread and our projected margin both update on this page through the week.
Every Week 10 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Commanders @ Giants | Giants 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Patriots @ Lions | Lions 31-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bills @ Jets | Bills 30-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Panthers @ Saints | Saints 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Texans @ Browns | Texans 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Jaguars @ Titans | Jaguars 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Chiefs @ Falcons | Chiefs 27-16 | You are here |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Dolphins @ Colts | Colts 20-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Vikings @ Packers | Packers 20-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Rams @ Cardinals | Rams 24-16 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Seahawks @ Raiders | Seahawks 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers @ Cowboys | 49ers 34-24 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Steelers @ Bengals | Bengals 27-23 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Chargers @ Ravens | Ravens 23-13 | Read |
The rest of the round sits in the full NFL picks page and our wider NFL analysis. The outright markets are priced in the AFC board. Individual lines are covered in prop markets for this game.
Chiefs vs Falcons FAQ
Kansas City. The Chiefs are 6-2 at +59 against a 3-6 Atlanta team. The live number sits in the Signal card on this page.
1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 15 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which is 12:00 PM CT and 10:00 AM PT.
Kansas City, at 5.08 yards a carry — the best average in the NFL.
The passing game. They throw for 185 yards a game at a 76.4 rating, 25th and 29th in the league.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change