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Commanders vs Giants Prediction, Picks & Odds

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants prediction, picks and odds for Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season

These two drew 27-27 in Week 5 and both carry a tie into Week 10. New York concede 79.0% of red-zone trips, the worst rate in the NFL, and Washington convert 31.1% on third down, also the worst. Our Commanders vs Giants prediction opens the week.

The Washington Commanders are 2-5-1 and the New York Giants 5-2-1. Only these two have tied this season, and they did it against each other.

Week 10 · Editorial pick

Commanders vs Giants: our editor’s props

Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.

Commanders AT Giants

Our props

Player propWashington 1+ red-zone touchdownNew York concede 79.0% of red-zone trips, the worst rate in the NFL. Washington convert 52.4% of their own.
★★★★☆4/5 confidence
Player propJayden Daniels 230+ passing yardsDaniels threw for 274 last week and Washington average 207 a game. New York allow 178, so this is the tighter end of the range.
★★★☆☆3/5 confidence

An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Commanders vs Giants: 2026 form so far

A 5-2-1 team against a 2-5-1 one, and the numbers are much closer than that gap suggests. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defense has actually allowed.

Commanders attack against the Giants defense

Per gameCommanders offenseGiants allow
Passing yards207.1177.8
Rushing yards118.2123.6
Yards per carry4.54.7
Passer rating94.887.0
Touchdowns2.22.6
Third-down conversion31.1%37.3%
Red-zone conversion52.4%78.9%
Sacks conceded / recorded2.52.0

Giants attack against the Commanders defense

Per gameGiants offenseCommanders allow
Passing yards221.0240.0
Rushing yards112.1102.2
Yards per carry3.93.9
Passer rating88.596.5
Touchdowns2.42.9
Third-down conversion40.4%40.0%
Red-zone conversion68.2%75.0%
Sacks conceded / recorded3.42.1

New York have conceded 79.0% of red-zone trips, the highest figure in the NFL, which is the one way back into this for Washington.

Washington Commanders 2-5-1 · average margin -3.8

+10−10Week 1: lost to the Eagles 22-24 (away)@PHI1Week 2: lost to the Cowboys 20-37 (away)@DAL2Week 3: beat the Seahawks 33-31 (home)vSEA3Week 4: lost to the Colts 13-30 (home)vIND4Week 5: drew with the Giants 27-27 (home)vNYG5Week 6: lost to the 49ers 17-23 (away)@SF6Week 8: beat the Eagles 27-10 (home)vPHI8Week 9: lost to the Rams 13-20 (home)vLA9

New York Giants 5-2-1 · average margin +1.2

+10−10+20−20Week 1: beat the Cowboys 28-20 (home)vDAL1Week 2: lost to the Rams 6-28 (away)@LA2Week 3: beat the Titans 12-7 (home)vTEN3Week 4: beat the Cardinals 36-24 (home)vARI4Week 5: drew with the Commanders 27-27 (away)@WAS5Week 6: lost to the Saints 27-34 (home)vNO6Week 7: beat the Texans 27-21 (away)@HOU7Week 9: beat the Eagles 19-11 (away)@PHI9
One bar per game this season, in week order. Bars above the line are wins and below are defeats, sized by margin. “v” is a home game and “@” an away game. Hover or tap a bar for the score. Bye weeks are left blank, so a gap in a run of form is visible rather than hidden.

Commanders vs Giants quarterback matchup

Jayden Daniels completed 24 of 35 for 274 yards at 101.4 last week. J.J. McCarthy went 12 of 19 for 127 at 82.6 in a 19-11 win over Philadelphia.

TeamQuarterbackLast gameSeason to date
CommandersJayden Daniels24/35, 274 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 101.4 rtg115/180, 1250 yds, 7 TD, 0 INT, 97.2 rtg (6 games)
GiantsJ.J. McCarthy12/19, 127 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 82.6 rtg43/68, 622 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 91.7 rtg (4 games)
Jameis Winston6/8, 71 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 141.1 rtg96/166, 1028 yds, 8 TD, 5 INT, 79.6 rtg (7 games)
Last game is Week 9. Season figures are 2026 to date, with games played in brackets.

Commanders vs Giants injury report and team news

These two drew 27-27 in Week 5, the only tie either has been involved in.

New York concede 79.0% of red-zone trips, the worst rate in the NFL.

Washington convert 31.1% on third down, also the worst figure in the league.

The worst red-zone defense in football against the worst third down in football

New York have won five, and the defense is the reason: 178 passing yards a game conceded is third in the league and the pass rush has held opponents to 87.0.

The exception is glaring. Once a drive reaches the 20, New York have conceded on 79.0% of trips, the worst rate in the NFL, and Washington’s problem is getting that far at all on 31.1% third down.

That is the game. If Washington can move the chains they will score; the evidence of eight weeks says they cannot.

Washington CommandersNew York Giants

Their own numbers

Touchdowns per gameWashington Commanders: 2.2, 22nd of 32New York Giants: 2.4, 17th of 3222nd2.22.417thPassing yards per gameWashington Commanders: 207, 21st of 32New York Giants: 221, 16th of 3221st20722116thRushing yards per gameWashington Commanders: 118, 11th of 32New York Giants: 112, 17th of 3211th11811217thYards per carryWashington Commanders: 4.50, 8th of 32New York Giants: 3.87, 24th of 328th4.503.8724thThird-down conversionWashington Commanders: 31.1%, 32nd of 32New York Giants: 40.4%, 12th of 3232nd31.1%40.4%12thRed-zone conversionWashington Commanders: 52.4%, 23rd of 32New York Giants: 68.2%, 6th of 3223rd52.4%68.2%6thSacks per gameWashington Commanders: 2.1, 17th of 32New York Giants: 2.0, 22nd of 3217th2.12.022ndInterceptions per gameWashington Commanders: 0.6, 22nd of 32New York Giants: 0.8, 16th of 3222nd0.60.816th
Each club’s own production, per game this season. The small grey number is the league rank out of 32.

What opponents have managed against them

Touchdowns per gameWashington Commanders: 2.9, 22nd of 32New York Giants: 2.6, 16th of 3222nd2.92.616thPassing yards per gameWashington Commanders: 240, 30th of 32New York Giants: 178, 3rd of 3230th2401783rdRushing yards per gameWashington Commanders: 102, 12th of 32New York Giants: 124, 21st of 3212th10212421stYards per carryWashington Commanders: 3.91, 11th of 32New York Giants: 4.69, 27th of 3211th3.914.6927thThird-down conversionWashington Commanders: 40.0%, 17th of 32New York Giants: 37.3%, 11th of 3217th40.0%37.3%11thRed-zone conversionWashington Commanders: 75.0%, 31st of 32New York Giants: 78.9%, 32nd of 3231st75.0%78.9%32ndSacks per gameWashington Commanders: 2.5, 19th of 32New York Giants: 3.4, 30th of 3219th2.53.430thInterceptions per gameWashington Commanders: 0.1, 1st of 32New York Giants: 0.8, 21st of 321st0.10.821st
What each club’s opponents have managed, per game. Ranks here run the other way: first is the lowest number conceded, not the highest. The ringed dot is the better figure.

Players to watch

  • Jayden Daniels (WAS, QB): 274 yards at a 101.4 rating in Los Angeles last week.
  • Rachaad White (WAS, RB): Leads a run game averaging 4.50 a carry, eighth in the NFL.
  • Darnell Mooney (NYG, WR): The first read in a passing game rating 88.5.
  • Devin Singletary (NYG, RB): Carries the load for a 5-2-1 team that wins low-scoring games.

How Commanders vs Giants last unfolded

Washington Commanders scored on 5 of 13 drives  ·  New York Giants scored on 5 of 13 drives

Q1WASQ1 Washington Commanders: +69 yards, 4 plays, Touchdown, 6 points+69 yds, 4 playsTouchdownQ1NYGQ1 New York Giants: +32 yards, 10 plays, Missed FG+32 yds, 10 playsMissed FGQ1WASQ1 Washington Commanders: -4 yards, 3 plays, Punt-4 yds, 3 playsPuntQ1NYGQ1 New York Giants: +8 yards, 3 plays, Punt+8 yds, 3 playsPuntQ1WASQ1 Washington Commanders: -8 yards, 3 plays, Punt-8 yds, 3 playsPuntQ1NYGQ1 New York Giants: +22 yards, 5 plays, Field Goal, 3 points+22 yds, 5 playsField GoalQ1WASQ1 Washington Commanders: +73 yards, 14 plays, Field Goal, 3 points+73 yds, 14 playsField GoalQ2NYGQ2 New York Giants: -5 yards, 5 plays, Punt-5 yds, 5 playsPuntQ2WASQ2 Washington Commanders: +5 yards, 3 plays, Punt+5 yds, 3 playsPuntQ2NYGQ2 New York Giants: -6 yards, 2 plays, Fumble-6 yds, 2 playsFumbleQ2WASQ2 Washington Commanders: +5 yards, 4 plays, Field Goal, 3 points+5 yds, 4 playsField GoalQ2NYGQ2 New York Giants: +26 yards, 8 plays, Missed FG+26 yds, 8 playsMissed FGQ2WASQ2 Washington Commanders: -1 yards, 1 play, End of Half-1 yds, 1 playEnd of HalfQ3NYGQ3 New York Giants: +35 yards, 7 plays, Field Goal, 3 points+35 yds, 7 playsField GoalQ3WASQ3 Washington Commanders: +72 yards, 5 plays, Touchdown, 7 points+72 yds, 5 playsTouchdownQ3NYGQ3 New York Giants: +59 yards, 13 plays, Touchdown, 7 points+59 yds, 13 playsTouchdownQ3WASQ3 Washington Commanders: +81 yards, 8 plays, Touchdown, 8 points+81 yds, 8 playsTouchdownQ4NYGQ4 New York Giants: +75 yards, 9 plays, Touchdown, 7 points+75 yds, 9 playsTouchdownQ4WASQ4 Washington Commanders: -4 yards, 3 plays, Punt-4 yds, 3 playsPuntQ4NYGQ4 New York Giants: +72 yards, 10 plays, Touchdown, 7 points+72 yds, 10 playsTouchdownQ4WASQ4 Washington Commanders: +19 yards, 4 plays, Punt+19 yds, 4 playsPuntQ4NYGQ4 New York Giants: -1 yards, 1 play, End of Half-1 yds, 1 playEnd of HalfQ1NYGQ1 New York Giants: +24 yards, 8 plays, Missed FG+24 yds, 8 playsMissed FGQ1WASQ1 Washington Commanders: +18 yards, 4 plays, Punt+18 yds, 4 playsPuntQ1NYGQ1 New York Giants: +67 yards, 8 plays, Fumble+67 yds, 8 playsFumbleQ1WASQ1 Washington Commanders: +53 yards, 6 plays, End of Game+53 yds, 6 playsEnd of Game
Every drive of the last meeting, in order. Bar length is net yards and a solid bar is a drive that ended in points.
07142128Q1 13:00 · Washington Commanders Touchdown, 6 points · Commanders 6 Giants 0Q1 00:55 · New York Giants Field Goal, 3 points · Commanders 6 Giants 3Q1 8:57 · Washington Commanders Field Goal, 3 points · Commanders 9 Giants 3Q2 1:02 · Washington Commanders Field Goal, 3 points · Commanders 12 Giants 3Q3 10:54 · New York Giants Field Goal, 3 points · Commanders 12 Giants 6Q3 7:47 · Washington Commanders Touchdown, 7 points · Commanders 19 Giants 6Q3 00:44 · New York Giants Touchdown, 7 points · Commanders 19 Giants 13Q3 11:05 · Washington Commanders Touchdown, 8 points · Commanders 27 Giants 13Q4 7:20 · New York Giants Touchdown, 7 points · Commanders 27 Giants 20Q4 1:43 · New York Giants Touchdown, 7 points · Commanders 27 Giants 27
The score through that game, one step per scoring play. Built from the drive feed rather than typed in, which is checkable: the derived final reads Washington Commanders 27, New York Giants 27, and that is the real final score.

How to watch Commanders vs Giants

Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, November 12 at MetLife Stadium, which is 7:15 PM CT and 5:15 PM PT. Prime Video has the exclusive broadcast.

DetailCommanders vs Giants
DateThursday, November 12, 2026
Kickoff8:15 PM ET / 7:15 PM CT / 5:15 PM PT
VenueMetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
TVAmazon Prime Video
Live streamNFL+ / Prime Video
WeekWeek 10, 2026 NFL season

Commanders vs Giants prediction and score projection

New York win 23-20. The Giants defense is the best unit on the field by some way, and Washington’s third down is the worst in football, which is a hard combination to play through twice.

The live spread and our projected margin both update on this page through the week.

Every Week 10 game, previewed

Kickoff (ET)GameOur predictionPreview
Thu 8:15 PMCommanders @ GiantsGiants 23-20You are here
Sun 9:30 AMPatriots @ LionsLions 31-24Read
Sun 1:00 PMBills @ JetsBills 30-17Read
Sun 1:00 PMPanthers @ SaintsSaints 27-24Read
Sun 1:00 PMTexans @ BrownsTexans 26-17Read
Sun 1:00 PMJaguars @ TitansJaguars 27-13Read
Sun 1:00 PMChiefs @ FalconsChiefs 27-16Read
Sun 1:00 PMDolphins @ ColtsColts 20-16Read
Sun 1:00 PMVikings @ PackersPackers 20-13Read
Sun 4:05 PMRams @ CardinalsRams 24-16Read
Sun 4:05 PMSeahawks @ RaidersSeahawks 27-13Read
Sun 4:25 PM49ers @ Cowboys49ers 34-24Read
Sun 8:20 PMSteelers @ BengalsBengals 27-23Read
Mon 8:15 PMChargers @ RavensRavens 23-13Read

For the rest of the week, see the full NFL picks page and our wider NFL analysis. The outright markets are priced in Super Bowl LXI odds. For the player side of this game, see NFL player props.

Commanders vs Giants FAQ

Who is favored, the Commanders or the Giants?

New York. The Giants are 5-2-1 at +10 and at home; Washington are 2-5-1 at -30. The live number sits in the Signal card on this page.

Did the Commanders and Giants really tie?

Yes. They drew 27-27 in Week 5, and it is the only tie either team has been involved in this season.

What time is Commanders vs Giants?

8:15 PM ET on Thursday, November 12 at MetLife Stadium, which is 7:15 PM CT and 5:15 PM PT.

Which team has the worst red-zone defense?

New York, at 79.0% conceded — the highest rate in the NFL.

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change