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    Home » Outright markets » Premier League 2026-27 Title Odds: Winner Predictions & Favourites

    Premier League 2026-27 Title Odds: Winner Predictions & Favourites

    Arsenal defend the title they finally landed in 2025-26, and the market makes them favourites again — but a long way from a shoo-in.

    The 2026-27 Premier League opens on August 21, and the title market has settled into a familiar shape: Arsenal out in front, Manchester City the standing threat, and Liverpool and Manchester United a tier back with Chelsea.

    Our Squawka Signal model is now live for 2026-27 — a data-led title probability for every club, set against the live market. Pre-season it leans on recent form across the last five seasons; it sharpens as games are played. Follow the race on the Premier League hub and the live table.

    Squawka Signal · Model vs Market

    Premier League 2026-27 Winner — Squawka Signal

    Our model’s title probability for every club against the live Kalshi market. Pre-season it leans on last season’s team-strength ratings, regressed for a fresh campaign, and sharpens as results land. Tap any club for its Squawka Rating and top-four odds.

    ▲Market under our model · value▼Market over our model · overpriced▬In line
    1Arsenal crestArsenalSquawka30.7%Kalshi–▬ —bet36539%▼ Slight lay
    Squawka Rating72
    Win the title30.7%
    Top four71.8%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market39%Bet
    2Manchester City crestManchester CitySquawka27.2%Kalshi–▬ —bet36519%▲ Value
    Squawka Rating71
    Win the title27.2%
    Top four67.9%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market19%Bet
    3Liverpool crestLiverpoolSquawka10.8%Kalshi–▬ —bet36513%▬ Fair
    Squawka Rating63
    Win the title10.8%
    Top four43.2%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market13%Bet
    4Chelsea crestChelseaSquawka4.5%Kalshi–▬ —bet3659%▼ Slight lay
    Squawka Rating55
    Win the title4.5%
    Top four25.2%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market9%Bet
    5Newcastle United crestNewcastle UnitedSquawka4.1%Kalshi–▬ —bet3651%▲ Value
    Squawka Rating54
    Win the title4.1%
    Top four23.4%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market1%Bet
    6Manchester United crestManchester UnitedSquawka3.1%Kalshi–▬ —bet36511%▼ Slight lay
    Squawka Rating53
    Win the title3.1%
    Top four20.1%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market11%Bet
    7Aston Villa crestAston VillaSquawka3.0%Kalshi–▬ —bet3652%▬ Fair
    Squawka Rating53
    Win the title3.0%
    Top four20.1%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market2%Bet
    8Brighton & Hove Albion crestBrighton & Hove AlbionSquawka3.0%Kalshi–▬ —bet3651%▬ Fair
    Squawka Rating53
    Win the title3.0%
    Top four19.6%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market1%Bet
    9Brentford crestBrentfordSquawka2.4%Kalshi–▬ —bet3650%▬ Fair
    Squawka Rating51
    Win the title2.4%
    Top four16.6%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market0%Bet
    10AFC Bournemouth crestAFC BournemouthSquawka2.2%Kalshi–▬ —bet3650%▬ Fair
    Squawka Rating50
    Win the title2.2%
    Top four15.2%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market0%Bet
    11Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham HotspurSquawka1.7%Kalshi–▬ —bet3654%▬ Fair
    Squawka Rating48
    Win the title1.7%
    Top four12.5%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market4%Bet
    12Nottingham Forest crestNottingham ForestSquawka1.6%Kalshi–▬ —bet3650%▬ Fair
    Squawka Rating48
    Win the title1.6%
    Top four12.1%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market0%Bet
    13Fulham crestFulhamSquawka1.4%Kalshi–▬ —bet3650%▬ Fair
    Squawka Rating47
    Win the title1.4%
    Top four11.1%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market0%Bet
    14Crystal Palace crestCrystal PalaceSquawka1.1%Kalshi–▬ —bet3650%▬ Fair
    Squawka Rating47
    Win the title1.1%
    Top four9.9%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market0%Bet
    15Everton crestEvertonSquawka1.0%Kalshi–▬ —bet3650%▬ Fair
    Squawka Rating46
    Win the title1.0%
    Top four9.0%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market0%Bet
    16Leeds United crestLeeds UnitedSquawka1.0%Kalshi–▬ —bet3650%▬ Fair
    Squawka Rating46
    Win the title1.0%
    Top four8.7%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market0%Bet
    17Sunderland crestSunderlandSquawka1.0%Kalshi–▬ —bet3650%▬ Fair
    Squawka Rating46
    Win the title1.0%
    Top four9.4%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market0%Bet
    18Coventry City crestCoventry CitySquawka0.1%Kalshi–▬ —bet365–▬ —
    Squawka Rating34
    Win the title0.1%
    Top four2.0%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market–Bet
    19Ipswich Town crestIpswich TownSquawka0.1%Kalshi–▬ —bet365–▬ —
    Squawka Rating34
    Win the title0.1%
    Top four1.8%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market–Bet
    20Hull City crestHull CitySquawka0.0%Kalshi–▬ —bet3650%▬ Fair
    Squawka Rating28
    Win the title0.0%
    Top four0.5%
    Kalshi market–Tradebet365 market0%Bet
    Trade the title market on KalshiBet the market with bet365

    Squawka Rating = each club’s strength on a 0–100 scale. Model % = title probability across 20,000 season simulations, updated as games are played. The verdict is our read on each price: Value = the market sits below our model, Overpriced = above it. bet365 odds are shown for readers outside the US. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our Kalshi review, bet365 review and the Signal methodology.

    Premier League 2026-27 title race

    Squawka Signal makes Arsenal the title favourites at 30.7%, with Manchester City the main threat on 27.2% and Liverpool heading the chasing pack. These are the model’s numbers — a data-led read from 20,000 season simulations, not a restatement of the market — and they update after every round.

    Other Premier League 2026-27 markets

    Beyond the title, see our Premier League relegation odds and Golden Boot odds, plus the top-scorer charts. The hub tracks the table and fixtures behind them.

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