San Diego are a defeat from the end of their season, and Kalshi still makes them favourites. The Padres trail this NLDS 2-0 and host Game 3 at Petco Park on Tuesday night, where the CFTC-regulated US prediction market has them at 55% to force a Game 4.
If you are new to prediction markets, signing up through our link gets you the Trade $25, Get $25 Bonus. You will see “SQUAWKA sent you $25 on Kalshi” and it applies automatically, with no code to enter. First pitch is 9:30pm ET on Tuesday on FS1.
Match markets — Brewers vs Padres
That looks odd next to the series score until you look at how the first two games went. San Diego sit at 55% and Milwaukee at 44%, and the run lines lean the same way — the Padres 50% to clear 3.5 runs, the Brewers 45%. The market is treating a 2-0 deficit built on two one-run defeats as a series San Diego could easily be level in, and pricing tonight on home field rather than on the scoreboard.
Match Markets — Brewers vs Padres
Game Winner
- Milwaukee44%
- San Diego55%
Brewers Runs
- Over 3.545%
- Over 4.532%
Padres Runs
- Over 3.550%
- Over 4.536%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 4:20am ET on October 6. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
Milwaukee won Game 1 3-2 and Game 2 4-3. Two games, two single-run margins, and a 2-0 lead that flatters them. San Diego hand Game 3 to Nick Pivetta, Milwaukee counter with Dustin May. The Brewers can close this out tonight and rest their rotation; the Padres need to win three in a row, starting with the one game in the series the market thinks they should win.
How to claim the Kalshi welcome bonus
- Sign up at Kalshi via our link — the SQUAWKA bonus applies automatically, no code to type.
- Make a qualifying $25 trade.
- Your $25 bonus unlocks. Our Kalshi referral code guide has the full terms.
More MLB postseason markets
More on prediction markets
- What is Kalshi? Sports prediction markets explained
- Kalshi vs Polymarket: which prediction market is better?
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.