Cleveland were shut out at home in Game 1 and now trail this series 1-0, with a second defeat leaving them one loss from elimination. The market has barely flinched. ALDS Game 2 starts Monday teatime, and Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market, still has the Guardians as favourites.
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Match markets — White Sox vs Guardians
This is the interesting part. Cleveland sit at 57% and Chicago at 41% — the identical price Kalshi had on this matchup before the White Sox won Game 1. The market has read a 3-0 defeat as noise rather than evidence, and is backing the better regular-season side to level the series. The run totals are more cautious: Cleveland 48% to clear 3.5, Chicago 39%.
Match Markets — White Sox vs Guardians
Game Winner
- Cleveland57%
- Chicago WS41%
White Sox Runs
- Over 3.539%
- Over 4.526%
Guardians Runs
- Over 3.548%
- Over 4.533%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 12:03pm ET on October 5. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
Chicago took the opener 3-0, Munetaka Murakami’s two-run homer the difference and five Chicago pitchers combining on a three-hitter. Cleveland hand Game 2 to Gavin Williams, who struck out 248 batters this season — second in the majors — and worked 20 and a third innings against these opponents during the regular season for a 3.98 ERA. Chicago are expected to open with Anthony Kay before handing over to Sean Burke. If Cleveland’s bats stay quiet a second time, that 57% will look very generous in hindsight.
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