The best prediction markets for US traders in 2026 are Kalshi and Polymarket on the regulated side, with OG Predicts, Underdog Predict, ProphetX, Novig, Dabble, ForeGate and the sweepstakes-model Legendz rounding out the wider field.
Prediction markets are the federally-regulated alternative to traditional sportsbooks: yes/no event contracts on real-world outcomes, priced in cents on the dollar. For bettors in states without legal sports betting — Florida, California, Texas, Georgia and others — they are the cleanest legal route to trade on sports outcomes. With the NFL season under way, the MLB pennant races closing out and the Premier League and Europe’s top leagues in full swing, operators are competing hard for new traders on liquidity, fees and promo size. These are the nine platforms our editors rank, ordered by overall product strength.
Updated October 2026. Availability and rules vary by state — see our prediction markets by state guide.
Best US prediction markets for October 2026: the ranking
- $25 bonus when you trade $25
- Available in all 50 states
- CFTC-regulated exchange
- No overround in pricing
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- $25 bonus when you trade $25
- Backed by Crypto.com
- CFTC-regulated event contracts
- No promo code required
18+ and available in eligible states only; not offered in AZ or NY. Place a qualifying first trade to receive a $25 bonus; qualifying terms are set by the operator and shown at sign-up. Event contracts are CFTC-regulated through Commodity Derivatives North America. Prediction markets involve financial risk. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- 100% deposit match up to $50
- CFTC-regulated via the QCX licence
- Highest liquidity in prediction markets
- No overround in pricing
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization
- $75 bonus when you trade $50
- CFTC-regulated designated contract market
- Open in 49 states
- Peer-to-peer pricing, tighter lines
Offer subject to terms. Trading sports event contracts involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. You should consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your financial circumstances. ProphetX is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Full risk disclosure available at prophetx.co/risk. 18+. Prohibited in NV.
- $10 deposit gets $50 in Trade Credits
- Available in 47 states and DC
- CFTC-regulated peer-to-peer exchange
- Promo code SQUAWKA
21+. New members who haven’t traded on Novig only. Deposit $10 or more to get $50 in Trade Credits, issued as five $10 credits: one credit per trade, on contracts priced $0.01 to $0.60, each expiring 30 days after issue. Trade Credits can’t be withdrawn. One offer per person. Not available in Arizona, Michigan or Nevada. Void where prohibited. New Member Deposit Program terms apply. Please trade responsibly.
- $500 newcomer bonus
- Michael Owen brand ambassador
- Soccer, esports and crypto markets
- USDT deposits and withdrawals
Newbie Tasks expire 7 days after registration. After a task is completed, users must manually claim their rewards in the Rewards Center before the countdown ends; expired rewards cannot be reissued. Each user may participate and claim Newbie Task rewards once only. The Deposit Challenge within Weekly Tasks requires at least $200 in total trading volume to qualify. Only trades made in USDT markets count toward the trading reward (FGUSD and Testnet markets are excluded). Up to $500 is the maximum potential reward across the five Newbie Tasks; actual rewards depend on tasks completed. Rewards are calculated and distributed after the relevant task window ends.
21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
Best prediction markets at a glance
- Best overall, best for US state coverage, best for fiat funding — Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, trades nationwide, ACH and debit funding)
- Best newcomer — OG Predicts (CFTC-regulated via CDNA, backed by Crypto.com, Trade $25, Get $25)
- Best for global liquidity, best for market breadth — Polymarket (USDC-denominated, available across the US bar nine states via QCX)
- Best for event contracts and daily fantasy on one account — Underdog Predict (CFTC-registered UDX exchange, 50% first deposit match up to $1,000, live in 42 US jurisdictions)
- Best peer-to-peer sports exchange — ProphetX (49 states, CFTC DCM and DCO since June 2026, trade $50 and earn $75 in trading bonus)
- Best no-vig peer-to-peer exchange for sharps — Novig (Deposit $10, Get $50 in Trade Credits, code SQUAWKA)
- Best DFS pick’em alternative — Dabble (Play $5 Get $50, DFS rules in 27 states and DC)
- Best for USDT and crypto-wallet traders — ForeGate (USDT-funded, up to $500 in task-based bonuses; offshore, not CFTC-regulated)
- Best sweepstakes alternative — Legendz (500 Gold Coins and 3 Sweeps Coins free with code SQ; a social sportsbook, not an event-contract market)
- Best deep-dive comparison — see our Kalshi vs Polymarket head-to-head
1. Kalshi — 9.5 / 10
Best for US sports event trading with fiat-rail funding. Tradeable today, nationwide under CFTC oversight. Welcome offer: Trade $25, Get $25 Bonus. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market that operates nationwide under federal oversight. Yes/no event contracts on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, soccer (EPL, UCL, MLS, World Cup), tennis and golf — plus politics, economics and culture. Funding is via ACH bank transfer or debit card, with a USDC on-ramp also available. Its sports event contracts have drawn legal challenges in a handful of states, but the federal framework has so far kept the platform trading across the country.
- Trades nationwide under federal CFTC oversight (some states are challenging sports contracts)
- Fiat-rail funding via ACH and debit, with a USDC on-ramp optional
- Deep US sports event-contract catalogue
- Trading-income tax treatment, not gambling winnings
18+. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. CFTC-regulated. Tax treatment differs from gambling winnings and is still evolving.
2. OG Predicts — 9.0 / 10
Best newcomer, and the cleanest fiat-funded alternative to Kalshi. Welcome offer: Trade $25, Get $25. OG Predicts is the prediction market Crypto.com launched in February 2026, trading event contracts on sports, politics, finance and culture. Contracts are CFTC-regulated through Commodity Derivatives North America. The welcome offer now matches Kalshi’s headline figure: trade $25 and the $25 bonus lands straight away, with no promo code and no multi-day grind. Live in 48 states, with Arizona and New York the exceptions.
- CFTC-regulated event contracts through Commodity Derivatives North America
- Backed by Crypto.com, launched February 2026
- Simplest welcome offer here — one qualifying $10 trade, no code to remember
- Markets across soccer, the NFL, MLB and the NBA, plus politics, finance and culture
- Not available in Arizona or New York
Read full OG Predicts review →
18+ and available in eligible states only; not offered in AZ or NY. Place a qualifying first trade to receive the $25 bonus; qualifying terms are set by OG and shown at sign-up. Prediction markets involve financial risk.
3. Polymarket — 8.5 / 10
Best for global liquidity and event-type breadth — now live for US real-money trading. Welcome offer: deposit $10, get a $25 trading bonus. Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain with USDC-denominated contracts. Following its 2025 acquisition of QCX (a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange), it now offers real-money event-contract trading to US users in most states, with the exception of Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. You must be 18+ with a legal US residential address in an eligible state, and eligibility can change as the rollout continues.
- Highest global liquidity of any prediction-market platform on flagship events
- Broadest event-type catalogue (sports + politics + culture + economics)
- No overround built into pricing
- Not available in nine states — AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH
18+. Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. CFTC-regulated via QCX. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH.
4. Underdog Predict — 8.5 / 10
Best for event contracts and daily fantasy on a single account. Welcome offer: 50% first deposit match up to $1,000 in bonus funds, plus the Keep Your Million promo game (state dependent). Underdog Predict is the event-contract product from Underdog, the daily-fantasy operator, and it runs on Underdog Exchange (UDX) — which Underdog owns and operates, and which is CFTC-registered as both a Designated Contract Market and a Derivatives Clearing Organization. You trade Yes or No contracts on team and player outcomes at a market price, alongside the pick’em and best ball contests, on the same balance. Live in 42 US jurisdictions.
- CFTC-registered DCM and DCO, owned and operated by Underdog rather than leased from a third party
- One account and one deposit covers both event contracts and daily fantasy
- Fiat funding — no stablecoin or wallet step of the kind Polymarket and ForeGate require
- Bonus funds are non-withdrawable until the combined deposit and bonus are played through, within 14 days
- Not available in Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Montana, Nevada or Washington
Read full Underdog Predict review →
18+ (19+ in AL, NE; 21+ in AZ, MA, VA). Bonus funds expire 14 days after being credited, and the play-through requirement covers the combined deposit and bonus. State dependent.
5. ProphetX — 8.0 / 10
Best peer-to-peer sports exchange on a federal regulatory footing. Welcome offer: Trade $50, Earn $75 in Trading Bonus. ProphetX is a sports-only exchange where users trade against each other rather than against the house. It has operated as a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization since June 2026 — the same federal tier as Kalshi — having moved off the sweepstakes framework it launched on. Live in 49 US states, everywhere bar Nevada. Sport-focused: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football and basketball, MLS and Premier League soccer.
- Peer-to-peer pricing produces tighter lines than a typical sportsbook on heavy markets
- CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization since June 2026
- Live in 49 states including Texas, California and Florida
- Not available in Nevada, or in Washington D.C.
18+. CFTC-regulated sports event-contract exchange. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors; full risk disclosure at prophetx.co/risk. Prohibited in Nevada.
6. Novig — 8.0 / 10
Best no-vig peer-to-peer exchange for sharp line-shoppers. Welcome offer: Deposit $10, Get $50 in Trade Credits, code SQUAWKA. Novig is a no-vig sports exchange — users bet against each other rather than the house, which produces tighter pricing than a traditional sportsbook on the same market. Novig won CFTC approval as a Designated Contract Market in June 2026 and launched nationwide in August, replacing its old sweepstakes coins with US-dollar deposits. Liquidity and product depth sit a tier below ProphetX today, but the no-vig structural pitch is genuine and the platform is designed for users who model their own probabilities. Available in every state except Arizona, Michigan and Nevada.
- No-vig pricing — the cleanest two-way market structure in the segment
- Bet against other users, not the house
- Built for line-shoppers and probability modellers
- Same-day withdrawals on most banking methods
21+. Peer-to-peer sweepstakes exchange. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET or 1-800-GAMBLER.
7. Dabble — 8.0 / 10
Best DFS pick’em product for sports fans in non-regulated states. Welcome offer: Play $5, Get $50. Dabble is a daily-fantasy pick’em product, not a prediction market in the strict event-contract sense — it earns its place on this list because for many US bettors the practical alternative to a sportsbook in their state is a DFS app, or a social sportsbook. Pick two-or-more players to go over or under their stat lines, payout scales with the number of legs. Available in 27 states and Washington DC under DFS rules, without the state-by-state licence a sportsbook needs — our best DFS sites ranking covers the category in full.
- Available in 27 states and DC as a DFS product
- Clean pick’em UX and social betting features
- Player-prop focus across major US sports and soccer
- Low minimum stake on every contest
21+ where applicable; 18+ in some states. DFS contests, not sportsbook wagers or event contracts. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET or 1-800-GAMBLER.
8. ForeGate — 7.5 / 10
Best for USDT and crypto-wallet traders. Welcome offer: up to $500 in welcome bonuses through task-based rewards. ForeGate is an offshore, USDT-funded prediction market — trades are denominated in USDT to a connected wallet, and it is not CFTC-regulated, so it sits below the federally regulated and DFS options for most US traders. Its headline $1,000,000 World Cup prize pool ran through the 2026 tournament and has now closed, but the platform remains open to US users with a compatible crypto wallet and keeps a deep soccer book. It suits traders already in the crypto wallet flow rather than anyone who wants an ACH or debit on-ramp.
- USDT wallet funding — suited to traders already holding crypto
- Deep soccer and multi-sport prediction book
- Up to $500 in welcome-bonus value through task-based rewards
- Not CFTC-regulated and USDT-only — no ACH or debit on-ramp
21+. Trading prediction-market contracts involves risk of loss. USDT-denominated funding. Offshore platform, not CFTC-regulated.
9. Legendz — 8.5 / 10
Best sweepstakes alternative where a prediction market is not the answer. Welcome offer: 500 Gold Coins and 3 Sweeps Coins free with promo code SQ. Legendz is not an event-contract market, and it places last here for that reason rather than on quality — its 8.5 rating measures it as a social sportsbook and sweepstakes casino, which is a different product to everything above it. You play with Gold Coins and Sweeps Coins and redeem prizes under sweepstakes rules, rather than buying and selling contracts on an order book. That model is why it operates in states where regulated sportsbooks, and some of the markets on this page, do not.
- Free-to-play sweepstakes model — no purchase necessary, and no purchase improves your chances
- Full sportsbook across the major US leagues, plus a social casino and live-dealer room
- Available in many states where regulated sportsbooks are not
- Not a prediction market — no event contracts, no order book and no CFTC oversight
- Sweeps Coins carry a play-through before redemption, and identity verification is required
18+ to register, 21+ in some states. Free-to-play social sportsbook and sweepstakes casino; no purchase is necessary and no purchase increases your chances of winning. Sweeps Coins carry a play-through before redemption and require identity verification. Void where prohibited.
Compare US prediction markets at a glance
| Platform | Rating | US trading status | Welcome | Regulation | Funding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 9.5 / 10 | Tradeable today (nationwide) | Trade $25, Get $25 Bonus | CFTC Designated Contract Market | ACH, debit (+ USDC) |
| OG Predicts | 9.0 / 10 | Tradeable (48 states) | Trade $25, Get $25 | CFTC via CDNA | ACH, debit (fiat) |
| Polymarket | 8.5 / 10 | Tradeable now (41 states) | Deposit $10, get $25 | CFTC via QCX | USDC / crypto |
| Underdog Predict | 8.5 / 10 | Tradeable (42 jurisdictions) | 50% deposit match up to $1,000 | CFTC DCM/DCO (UDX) | ACH, debit (fiat) |
| ProphetX | 8.0 / 10 | Tradeable (49 states) | Trade $50, Earn $75 in Trading Bonus | CFTC Designated Contract Market | ACH, debit (fiat) |
| Novig | 8.0 / 10 | Tradeable (47 states + DC) | Deposit $10, Get $50 in Trade Credits (SQUAWKA) | CFTC Designated Contract Market | Bank, card (+ USDC/USDT) |
| Dabble | 8.0 / 10 | 27 + DC (DFS) | Play $5, Get $50 | DFS rules, not event contracts | ACH, debit (fiat) |
| ForeGate | 7.5 / 10 | Open to US users | Up to $500 via tasks | Not CFTC-regulated (offshore) | USDT / crypto |
| Legendz | 8.5 / 10 | Sweepstakes model, most states | 500 GC + 3 SC free (SQ) | Sweepstakes, not event contracts | Card, fiat purchases |
Sportsbook vs prediction market: what’s the difference?
A traditional sportsbook offers betting lines on sports outcomes (moneyline, spread, totals) with overround — the bookmaker’s margin — built into the price. A prediction market lets you trade yes/no event contracts on the same outcomes (or on outcomes sportsbooks don’t price, like political events), with no built-in margin. The price you pay reflects the market’s aggregated probability assessment in cents on the dollar.
Three structural differences matter for US bettors:
- Legal access. Sportsbooks are licensed state by state and unavailable in around 20 US states. Kalshi operates under federal CFTC oversight and trades nationwide, though some states are contesting its sports event contracts. Polymarket also trades under CFTC oversight via QCX, in most states bar nine. ProphetX has traded as a CFTC Designated Contract Market since June 2026 and is live in 49 states; Novig has been a CFTC Designated Contract Market since June 2026 and is live everywhere except AZ, MI and NV; ForeGate is open to US users but not CFTC-regulated; Dabble runs as DFS in 27 states and DC.
- Pricing structure. Sportsbook two-way markets carry overround (yes and no implied probabilities sum above 100%). Prediction-market and peer-to-peer two-way contracts sum to roughly 100¢, with the remainder going to platform fees.
- Tax treatment. Sportsbook winnings are reported as gambling income. CFTC-regulated prediction-market gains are generally treated as trading or investment income rather than gambling winnings, and platforms report them differently from a sportsbook. The rules are still developing, and sweepstakes and DFS earnings follow different ones again — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
How event contracts work
- Pick a market. Example: “Will Real Madrid win the 2026 UEFA Champions League final?”
- Read the price. A YES contract trades between $0 and $1. A price of $0.62 implies a 62% market-priced probability of the event occurring.
- Buy or sell. If you think YES is undervalued, you buy at $0.62. If the event resolves YES, your contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
- Or trade out early. Sell your contract back into the market at the current price before resolution to lock in profit or limit loss.
- Pay the fee. Most platforms charge a small percentage of net profits, not every trade — so you don’t pay anything if you don’t win.
How we ranked these prediction markets
Editors funded accounts where possible, traded across sports, politics and macro markets, and tracked execution quality, fees and withdrawal time. Liquidity scores are weighted by 2026 average daily volume in each category. We weight the criteria as follows:
- US trading availability (25%) — can US users actually trade on the platform today?
- Regulation (20%) — federal CFTC oversight, regulatory clarity
- Market liquidity (20%) — bid-ask spreads on flagship events
- Fees and pricing (15%) — trading fees, withdrawal costs, no built-in overround
- Funding and withdrawal (10%) — payment methods, withdrawal speed, fiat vs crypto rails
- Product polish (10%) — app UX, order-book depth, market discovery
A note on this month’s order: OG Predicts enters at second and Underdog Predict at fourth. Its UDX exchange holds CFTC registration as both a Designated Contract Market and a Derivatives Clearing Organization, it funds in fiat rather than stablecoin, and at 8.5 it rates level with Polymarket. OG Predicts rates 9.0 on the back of CFTC regulation through Commodity Derivatives North America, fiat funding and a welcome offer that now matches Kalshi’s. With the 2026 World Cup concluded, ForeGate sits eighth on overall product strength. Legendz is listed last deliberately: it is a sweepstakes social sportsbook rather than an event-contract market, so it scores nothing on the regulation and liquidity criteria that carry 40% of the weighting here, and its 8.5 rating reflects its own category rather than this one. During the tournament we had temporarily bumped it up for its World Cup market depth and $1m prize pool, but that promotion has since closed and the ranking now reflects each platform on merit. The regulated pair of Kalshi and Polymarket stay clear of the field on trading availability, liquidity and regulatory standing.
Common questions about prediction markets
Kalshi is our pick for US sports specifically. It trades nationwide under CFTC oversight, funds via ACH and debit (no crypto required), and covers the major US leagues — NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL — plus soccer, tennis and golf. Polymarket has deeper political and culture markets, while ProphetX is a sport-only peer-to-peer exchange that has traded as a CFTC Designated Contract Market since June 2026.
For CFTC-regulated platforms, largely yes. Kalshi trades nationwide as a CFTC Designated Contract Market, although several states have challenged its sports event contracts and the legal picture is still moving. Polymarket is also CFTC-regulated via its 2025 acquisition of QCX and is live for US trading in most states bar AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH. ProphetX has traded as a CFTC Designated Contract Market since June 2026 and is open in 49 states, everywhere bar Nevada. ForeGate is open to US users but is not CFTC-regulated. Always check the platform’s current eligibility for your state before funding.
Legally, no — at least for CFTC-regulated platforms. Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated commodity-exchange platform, with event contracts treated as derivatives rather than wagers. Polymarket follows the same regulatory category via QCX. Gains are generally treated as trading income rather than gambling winnings, though the tax treatment is still evolving. ProphetX sits in the same CFTC category, having moved off its original sweepstakes framework. DFS products such as Dabble operate under a different legal framework.
Yes. Following its 2025 QCX acquisition, Polymarket offers real-money event-contract trading to US users in most states, with the exception of Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New users can claim a $25 trading bonus when they deposit $10.
ProphetX is sports-only and runs on a peer-to-peer exchange model. Users back and lay outcomes against each other rather than against a house, with a Payout Adjustment Fee in the 2-3% range on net winnings. It launched under a sweepstakes framework and, in June 2026, began trading as a CFTC Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization — the same federal footing as Kalshi. Live in 49 states, everywhere bar Nevada.
ForeGate is an offshore, USDT-funded prediction market that is open to US users with a compatible crypto wallet. It is not CFTC-regulated, and funding is in USDT to a connected wallet rather than ACH or debit. New users can earn up to $500 in welcome-bonus value through task-based rewards. Its $1,000,000 World Cup prize pool ran through the 2026 tournament and has since closed.
On platforms where you can currently trade — yes, profitability depends on finding mispriced outcomes and managing risk. The structural absence of overround means your edge does not need to overcome built-in bookmaker margin. That makes prediction markets attractive to bettors who model probabilities and look for divergence from market pricing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
CFTC-regulated prediction-market gains are generally treated as trading or investment income rather than gambling winnings, but the treatment is still developing and platforms report differently. DFS products such as Dabble follow different rules again. Consult a qualified tax professional for your specific situation.
Both are now live for US real-money trading. Kalshi trades nationwide with fiat funding (ACH, debit). Polymarket is the global liquidity leader, funds in USDC, and is live across the US bar nine states — with a $25 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10. Pick Kalshi for state coverage and fiat funding; pick Polymarket for liquidity and market breadth. For a detailed side-by-side, see our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison.
Kalshi and Polymarket require 18+ with a legal US residential address in an eligible state. ProphetX also requires 18+ and an eligible state of residence. ForeGate sign-up is open to US users with a compatible USDT wallet. Sign-up takes a few minutes: create an account, complete identity verification (a photo ID and a US address are typically required for CFTC-regulated platforms), and fund the account. Kalshi and ProphetX fund via ACH or debit; Polymarket funds in USDC; ForeGate funds in USDT.
Must be 18+ (21+ in some states). Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This page is informational and is not investment advice. If you or someone you know has a problem with gambling, help is available at 1-800-MY-RESET or 1-800-GAMBLER.