St. Louis City face San Jose Earthquakes at Energizer Park on Saturday, April 25, with kickoff at 8:30 PM ET. This fixture sees the league’s top team visit a side marooned near the foot of the table, but history is firmly on the hosts’ side: St. Louis have never lost to the Earthquakes in six meetings. Both clubs enter with starkly contrasting fortunes—San Jose are flying both offensively and defensively, while St. Louis are seeking answers at both ends. A result here could mark a turning point for the hosts or cement San Jose’s early dominance in the campaign.
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Best Bets & Predictions
Based on the San Jose Earthquakes’ league-leading defense and the historical dominance of St. Louis City in this fixture, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in backing San Jose Earthquakes to win, given their outstanding form in the 2026 MLS season and St. Louis City’s struggles at both ends of the pitch.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes to Win | Bet365 (+170) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Earthquakes have won 8 of 9 games, 5 clean sheets, and a +18 goal differential this season. |
| Under 2.5 Total Goals | Bet365 (+135) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | San Jose have conceded only 4 goals in 9 matches; St. Louis struggle to score (0.88/game). |
| St. Louis City Double Chance (Win or Draw) | Bet365 (-250) | ⭐⭐⭐ | St. Louis are unbeaten in 6 head-to-heads vs San Jose (6/6 wins). Insurance bet based on historical dominance. |
Our approach: Start with San Jose Earthquakes to win, add Under 2.5 Total Goals for parlay potential.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Polymarket Match Prediction: Live Odds & Win Probability
Polymarket traders are actively pricing this clash, offering a real-time pulse on market sentiment for St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes. As of writing, the live market suggests a clear lean toward the in-form San Jose Earthquakes, but history keeps the draw and St. Louis win in the conversation. The moneyline pricing reflects both San Jose’s dominant run and St. Louis City’s head-to-head edge. Check the live tracker below for updated win probabilities and movement as kickoff approaches.
Season Form & Standings
The 2026 MLS season has seen the Quakes emerge as the league’s standout team, sitting atop the standings with eight wins from nine matches, a remarkable +18 goal difference, and the stingiest defense in Major League Soccer. St. Louis City, by contrast, find themselves entrenched near the bottom, with just one win in eight and a -6 goal differential. Momentum, confidence, and league position all favor the visitors, but St. Louis have made a habit of upsetting San Jose in recent years. Here is how the two teams compare so far in the 2026 campaign:
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 24 |
| St. Louis City | 14 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Timo Werner (San Jose Earthquakes): The German forward has been central to San Jose’s attack, leading the line in a team with 22 goals from just nine games (2026 MLS season).
- Paul Marie (San Jose Earthquakes): Offers threat from deep and contributes to both clean sheets and the build-up, as reflected in San Jose’s excellent defensive record. Three assists in six appearances.
- Eduard Löwen (St. Louis City): Returned from a long-term injury with a goal from the bench after just a minute against Seattle. Netted six goals in 19 MLS appearances last season and could turn St. Louis’ season around.
- Roman Bürki (St. Louis City): The experienced goalkeeper faces a league-high volume of shots; his contribution will be vital if St. Louis are to keep this close.
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
St. Louis City have dominated this fixture, winning all six previous meetings against the San Jose Earthquakes. Recent results below:
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis City | MLS |
| May 31, 2025 | St. Louis City 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes | MLS |
| Sep 22, 2024 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 St. Louis City | MLS |
| Jul 4, 2024 | St. Louis City 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes | MLS |
| Jun 25, 2023 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 St. Louis City | MLS |
| Mar 19, 2023 | St. Louis City 3-0 San Jose Earthquakes | MLS |
St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction
San Jose Earthquakes are in irresistible form and have set the standard early in the 2026 MLS season, boasting a league-best defensive record and a potent attack. However, St. Louis City have won all six previous meetings and will be desperate for a result to kickstart their campaign. The most likely scenario is San Jose’s class prevailing, but the head-to-head record keeps this closer than the league table suggests. Our top pick: back San Jose Earthquakes to win (+170 via Bet365), with confidence high given their dominant numbers on both sides of the ball.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.