CF Montreal host Toronto FC at Stade Saputo on Thursday, July 16 at 7:30 PM ET / 6:30 PM CT / 4:30 PM PT, an all-Canadian meeting between two sides badly in need of points as MLS returns from its World Cup break.
Our CF Montréal vs Toronto FC prediction starts with the table. Both sides sit in the lower reaches of the Eastern Conference, level on 14 points. CF Montreal sit 11th and Toronto FC 13th, and neither has won lately, so recent form offers little separation. Home advantage and Toronto’s leaky defense do.
bet365 make CF Montréal favorites at -115 to win, with Toronto FC out at +260 and the draw priced at +250. That line reflects a home side expected to edge it despite indifferent form, against opponents who arrive on a three-match losing run.
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC: Best Bets & Predictions
Two out-of-form sides meet at Stade Saputo, and home advantage plus Toronto’s leaky defense points to a Montreal win in a game with goals at both ends.
Our approach: anchor on CF Montréal to win, add both teams to score, and treat Montréal 2-1 as the natural scoreline with Owusu the pick to get on the board.
If Kalshi isn’t your choice, we also rate Polymarket and ProphetX — or compare the full lineup.
Probabilities reflect live Kalshi market prices at time of loading for the result, both-teams-to-score and total-goals markets; correct-score and goalscorer figures are bet365-implied. 21+. Prediction markets are CFTC-regulated event contracts, not sportsbook bets. Polymarket excluded in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV, OH. Please play responsibly. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. New Kalshi users: USE CODE SQUAWKA.
Odds correct at time of writing and shown in American format for illustration; your local odds and offer are served on click. Eligibility, minimum age (18+/21+) and T&Cs vary by region. Please gamble responsibly.
Season Form & Standings
Both clubs are stuck near the foot of the Eastern Conference, level on 14 points but four points behind the playoff cut-off held by DC United. CF Montréal edge Toronto FC on the wins tiebreaker, four to three, with Orlando City the only side between them in the table.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montréal | 11 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 14 |
| Toronto FC | 13 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 14 |
Neither defense inspires confidence. CF Montréal have conceded 31 goals in 14 games, Toronto FC 29, and both have scored just 22 — the sort of numbers that keep a side outside the playoff picture. You can track the full table on our MLS standings page and the wider race on the MLS hub.
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC: Predicted Lineups
Based on the XI each side started in their last match.
CF Montréal
4-3-3Toronto FC
4-4-2Potential Match-Winners
- Prince Owusu (CF Montréal): the focal point of the attack with nine goals and six assists, taking 28 shots and creating 19 chances across 1,090 minutes.
- Wikelman Carmona (CF Montréal): the creative spark from the flank, with four goals, two assists and a team-high 26 chances created in fewer than 800 minutes.
- Daniel Salloi (Toronto FC): Toronto’s main threat, leading the team with four goals and three assists off 29 shots, 14 of them on target.
- Alonso Coello (Toronto FC): the midfield supply line, with three assists and 30 chances created, more than anyone else in the squad.
Recent Form
CF Montréal: L W D L D
- May 23: DC United 4-4 CF Montréal (D, away)
- May 16: CF Montréal 0-2 Chicago Fire FC (L, home)
- May 13: CF Montréal 2-2 Portland Timbers (D, home)
- May 9: CF Montréal 2-0 Orlando City (W, home)
- May 2: Atlanta United 3-1 CF Montréal (L, away)
CF Montréal are winless in three, the last victory a 2-0 home win over Orlando City on May 9, and they have conceded in each of their last three. The 4-4 draw at DC United showed both the goals and the defensive frailty in equal measure.
Toronto FC: L D L L L
- May 23: Chicago Fire FC 2-1 Toronto FC (L, away)
- May 16: Charlotte FC 3-1 Toronto FC (L, away)
- May 9: Toronto FC 2-4 Inter Miami (L, home)
- May 2: Toronto FC 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes (D, home)
- April 25: Toronto FC 1-2 Atlanta United (L, home)
Toronto FC arrive on a three-match losing run and are winless in eight, the last win a 3-2 result at home to the Colorado Rapids on April 4. They have conceded in 11 straight but scored in 12 straight — leaky, yet far from toothless.
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC Prediction
This is a meeting of two strugglers, but home advantage and Toronto’s defensive record tilt it toward the hosts. Back CF Montréal to win at -115 with bet365, with both teams to score as the natural add-on given how freely goals have flowed in Toronto’s games. For more picks across the league, see our soccer predictions and the latest bet365 review. Kickoff is 7:30 PM ET at Stade Saputo.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER