Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta face off in the first leg of their Champions League knockout tie on Tuesday evening.
Both teams are bidding to make the last-16 and below you can find our match preview for the game that kicks-off at 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday 17 February.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on recent form and season-long trends, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in goals being on the agenda, given Dortmund’s high conversion rate and Atalanta’s underlying attacking metrics.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | -138 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Both teams’ recent head-to-heads have delivered goals (7 in 2 meetings), and Dortmund’s 19 goals in 8 matches (2.38 per game) indicate attacking intent. Atalanta’s xG (16.74) suggests their matches could open up, especially if their finishing regresses positively. |
| Julian Brandt to be Booked | +650 @ Bet365 | ⭐⭐ | Brandt’s role in midfield puts him in the thick of the action, and with Dortmund likely to face spells under pressure, tactical fouls could be on the cards. Atalanta’s midfielders draw plenty of fouls, increasing the risk for Dortmund’s playmakers. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
Season Form & Standings
Both sides had to navigate the play-off route after missing out on automatic qualification to the last 16 during the league phase. Atalanta showed greater consistency with four wins from eight matches, demonstrating defensive solidity with an even goal difference. Dortmund, meanwhile, proved more unpredictable—capable of explosive attacking performances that yielded 19 goals, but equally vulnerable at the back with 17 conceded. While Atalanta’s balanced approach earned them 13 points and 15th place, Dortmund’s high-risk style left them 17th with 11 points, despite their superior firepower suggesting they could hurt any opponent on their day.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 15 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 17 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 11 |
Potential Match-Winners
•Serhou Guirassy (Dortmund) – Leads Dortmund’s line and is central to their high shot accuracy (41.5%). Expect plenty of touches in the opposition box and a real goal threat.
•Julian Brandt (Dortmund) – 14 assists for Dortmund this campaign underline his creativity. He regularly features among top key pass-makers.
•Gianluca Scamacca (Atalanta) – Atalanta’s main striker, looking to improve on a team xG of 16.74 with only 10 goals converted. If he finds his finishing boots, he could be decisive.
•Marten de Roon (Atalanta) – Controls the tempo in midfield, crucial for breaking up Dortmund’s attacks and launching counters.
Head-to-Head
Last 2 Meetings
These sides have only met twice in recent memory, both times in a tense Europa League tie that saw plenty of goals and attacking football. Dortmund edged the two legs with a win and a draw.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22/02/18 | Atalanta 1-1 Borussia Dortmund | UEFA Europa League |
| 15/02/18 | Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Atalanta | UEFA Europa League |
Conclusion: Will Dortmund’s firepower prevail?
Dortmund have been ruthless in front of goal, but their defensive record leaves questions. Atalanta, in contrast, have the underlying numbers to suggest a breakthrough in attack is coming, especially if they can start finishing chances at their xG rate. With both teams showing a tendency for open matches, Over 2.5 Goals at -138 @ Bet365 stands out as an excellent value bet. Will Atalanta’s profligacy continue, or will Dortmund’s defensive woes allow them back into the tie?
More Champions League stats: UCL standings | Top scorers | Assist leaders | Full UCL stats hub