Maple Leafs vs Canucks: Prediction, Team News and Canadian Odds

Result: Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2 Vancouver Canucks

Anthony Stolarz stopped 26 of 28 and Toronto ended its western trip with a win. William Nylander scored 83 seconds in, from Nick Paul and Jake McCabe. Brock Boeser tied it on the power play at 10:30. Auston Matthews restored the lead at 3:47 of the second, his eleventh of the season, and Zack MacEwen made it 3-1 at 12:34. Max Sasson brought Vancouver within one at 9:27 of the third. Teddy Blueger scored into the empty net at 18:24, with Nylander and Stolarz assisting. Shots were 28 each. Stolarz started ahead of Sergei Bobrovsky. Leevi Merilainen stopped 24 of 27 and was pulled for the final two minutes. Nylander had a goal and an assist and Gavin McKenna had three shots. Chris Tanev played 19:21. Toronto is 8-6-2. Vancouver is 3-12-1.

Right side, wrong total. We said Toronto 4-3 and leaned the over. Every book we quote had 6.5, and six goals, one of them into an empty net, left it half a goal short. The side came in for the reason given: Vancouver is last, Toronto has the better attack, and Matthews and Nylander both scored. The over did not. We set aside a head-to-head average of 5.2 in favour of the live goals-against figures, and the series number was the better guide. Four of the last five had finished at five goals or fewer, and this one finished at six. One row to own. Our team news listed Chris Tanev as out on injured reserve to 31 October. He played 19 minutes and finished plus two.

The preview as published before the game follows.

This is the fourth and last game of Toronto’s western trip, and they have lost the previous two. Vancouver is last in the NHL but won in Anaheim on Tuesday, which ended a run of ten without a victory. Our prediction, the team news and the Canadian prices are below.

How to watch

Check your provider before puck drop: coverage varies by region and some parts of Canada are blacked out. We keep the full breakdown on our how to watch the NHL in Canada page.

Maple Leafs vs Canucks odds

Moneyline prices from 7 Canadian sportsbooks, captured on 31 October. American odds throughout.

These are stored prices rather than live ones, and a hockey line moves the moment a starting goaltender is confirmed, so check before you bet. Our NHL betting sites page sets out which operates where, and who is expected in net is on our projected NHL starting goalies page.

Vancouver is last, and has won once in its last ten

The Canucks are 3-11-1 and thirty-second, on seven points with a goal difference of minus twenty-three. Their 6-5 overtime win at Anaheim on Tuesday was their first in ten games, and they followed it by losing 3-2 in San Jose on Thursday, which is the shape of the season in two lines.

The goals against are the whole problem. Sixty-eight in fifteen games is 4.5 a night. No club is close. They score 3.0, which is poor rather than the reason they are bottom, and the gap between those two numbers is the whole season.

The crease splits sharply. Kevin Lankinen is 1-7-0 with a .812. Leevi Merilainen is 2-3-1 with a .900 across seven starts, and he was the one in goal for the win in Anaheim. Thatcher Demko is out until around 21 December.

How they compare

Toronto finished twenty points clear of Vancouver last season and conceded a fifth of a goal a game less. The gap on the penalty kill was nearly ten points, 81.2 per cent against 71.5. A kill that leaky is the fastest way for a game like this to get away from Vancouver.

Toronto has lost two in a row and slipped to fifteenth

The Leafs are 7-6-2 and fifteenth, with fifty-six goals for and fifty-one against. They lost 5-2 at Calgary and 5-4 in Seattle, the second and third legs of this trip, after winning 7-2 in Edmonton to start it.

Ten players are out, still the longest list in the league. John Tavares is gone until 27 November, Max Domi until 21 November and Kirill Marchenko until 17 November. Nick Blankenburg is out to 12 November and Chris Tanev to the end of this month.

The goaltending is shared and Stolarz has much the better of it: 4-1-0 at .907 across five starts, against Sergei Bobrovsky’s 3-5-2 and .885 across ten.

Four of the last five finished at five goals or fewer

Vancouver leads the all-time series 91 wins to 83 and has taken three of the last five, though Toronto won both meetings last season.

Those five produced 5, 5, 3, 3 and 10 goals, an average of 5.2, and two of them were shutouts. We are discounting that history rather than leaning on it. It spans three seasons and two very different Vancouver sides. The club conceding 4.5 a game now has little to do with the one that won 2-1 in February 2025.

Team news

Who starts in goal is an open question. Toronto has split between Stolarz (5 starts, .907) and Bobrovsky (10, .885), and Vancouver has split between Merilainen (7 starts, .900) and Lankinen (7, .812). Neither number is a promise about tonight, and the line moves the moment a club confirms its starter.

The full league picture is on our NHL injury report.

Players to watch

Auston Matthews, Toronto. Twenty points and sixth in the NHL, with Tavares and Domi both out of the lineup around him.

Leevi Merilainen, Vancouver. A .900 behind the worst defence in the league, and the goaltender who won them the game in Anaheim.

Anthony Stolarz, Toronto. A 4-1-0 record and a .907, clear of Bobrovsky on both counts.

Score prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 Vancouver Canucks. Toronto scores 3.7 a game and Vancouver concedes 4.5, but Toronto has lost the last two legs of this trip.

Maple Leafs vs Canucks prediction

Toronto is the side we would take, with less confidence than a week ago. Vancouver is last and conceding at a rate no club matches. Toronto has still won three of five.

The case for Vancouver is Merilainen, the building and the schedule. He is at .900 behind that defence and he won in Anaheim on Tuesday. This is the fourth game of Toronto’s trip and they have lost the last two of it. Our lean: Toronto, and the over. The head-to-head average of 5.2 is the one number pulling the other way. We are setting it aside. Toronto scores 3.7 a game and Vancouver concedes 4.5, and those are the live figures.

We rank all 32 each week in the NHL power rankings; the NHL schedule has the rest of Saturday’s games.

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