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Canadiens vs Maple Leafs: Prediction, Odds, Team News and Goalscorer Picks

Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction and picks

Montreal won 3-2 at Scotiabank Arena on 29 September. It has taken four of the last five meetings between these two. It returns on Saturday with 23 points from 16 games, five more than Toronto has managed from 17.

The gap is in the crease. Jacob Fowler is 7-1-1 with a .925 save percentage for Montreal, while Sergei Bobrovsky is 3-6-2 at .889 for a Toronto side that has conceded 56 goals in 17 games.

Our verdict
Our pick
Montreal to win
Score prediction
Canadiens 4 – 3 Maple Leafs
Against the market
Canadiens 51% at the Canadian books
Watch in Canada
Sportsnet, TVA Sports
Our NHL picks this season
49–33 on the winner
Strike rate
60%
Graded picks
82

Every pick is graded on its own preview once the game finishes, misses included. The full game-by-game record is on our NHL picks page.

How to watch in Canada

Detail
GameMontréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs
DateSaturday 7 November
Puck drop7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
VenueScotiabank Arena
RecordsMontréal 10-3-3, Toronto 8-7-2
In CanadaSportsnet, TVA Sports

A national listing doesn’t guarantee the game reaches your area. Our how to watch the NHL in Canada page covers who carries what.

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs odds at Canadian sportsbooks

SportsbookCanadiensMaple LeafsPuck lineTotal
Mise-o-jeu provincial––Maple Leafs +1.5 (−250)6.5 (−115 / +100)
PlayAlberta provincial––Maple Leafs +1.5 (−233)–
TonyBet−116−110Maple Leafs +1.5 (−256)6.5 (−116 / −105)
theScore Bet−115−105Maple Leafs +1.5 (−265)6.5 (−115 / −105)
Fair win chance, bookmaker margin removed
Canadiens 51%Maple Leafs 49%

Prices from 4 Canadian sportsbooks, captured on 7 November. They are stored prices rather than live ones, and a line moves with every injury update, so check the current number before you bet. Availability varies by province: Mise-o-jeu and PlayAlberta are provincial platforms rather than an open-market book. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC).

The rest of Saturday’s card is on our NHL odds page.

Goalie matchup

Montréal Canadiens
Jacob Fowler Projected
7-1-1Record
.925Save %
2.17GAA
2Shutouts
Last 5 starts, save percentage
23 October v Blackhawks: 20 saves on 21, .952.952BLA25 October v Jets: 33 saves on 34, .971.971JET27 October v Blues: 46 saves on 46, 1.0001.000BLU31 October v Penguins: 25 saves on 29, .862.862PEN3 November v Jets: 42 saves on 47, .894.894JET

Dobes started the last game, but Fowler has 9 of the 16 starts and has had 2 days’ rest.

Toronto Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky Projected
3-6-2Record
.889Save %
3.27GAA
0Shutouts
Last 5 starts, save percentage
19 October v Sharks: 30 saves on 31, .968.968SHA22 October v Rangers: 21 saves on 25, .840.840RAN26 October v Flames: 29 saves on 32, .906.906FLA28 October v Kraken: 12 saves on 17, .706.706KRA3 November v Mammoth: 33 saves on 36, .917.917MAM

Bobrovsky has started 11 of 17.

Starters are projected, never confirmed. Clubs name a goalie after the morning skate, so treat these as the likeliest call rather than the official one.

Fowler has been above .950 in three of his last five starts, and Bobrovsky has been under .850 in two of his, including a .706 night in Seattle. Toronto has won three of the eleven games Bobrovsky has started. That is what the market has to price.

Team news

PlayerClubStatusLatest
Bryce PickfordMontréal CanadiensInjured Reserve, UndisclosedNo timetable
Ivan DemidovMontréal CanadiensInjured Reserve, AnkleNo timetable
Lucas CondottaMontréal CanadiensInjured Reserve, UndisclosedNo timetable
Mike MathesonMontréal CanadiensOut, Lower BodyNo timetable
Sam MontembeaultMontréal CanadiensInjured Reserve, Lower BodyNo timetable
Cade WebberToronto Maple LeafsInjured Reserve, ElbowNo timetable
Elvis MerzlikinsToronto Maple LeafsInjured Reserve, ShoulderNo timetable
John TavaresToronto Maple LeafsInjured Reserve, Lower BodyNo timetable
Kirill MarchenkoToronto Maple LeafsInjured Reserve, Lower BodyNo timetable
Marshall RifaiToronto Maple LeafsInjured Reserve, Lower BodyNo timetable
Max DomiToronto Maple LeafsInjured Reserve, BackNo timetable
Miles WoodToronto Maple LeafsInjured Reserve, UndisclosedNo timetable
Nick BlankenburgToronto Maple LeafsInjured Reserve, Upper BodyNo timetable
William VilleneuveToronto Maple LeafsInjured Reserve, KneeNo timetable

Toronto is missing a large part of its forward group. John Tavares, Max Domi, Kirill Marchenko and Miles Wood are all on injured reserve, and there is no timetable on Domi. Montreal’s news runs the other way. Nick Suzuki came back on Thursday after six games out and scored, Kirby Dach returned with him, and only Sam Montembeault, Ivan Demidov and Mike Matheson are still unavailable.

Our NHL injury report is updated daily for the clubs not on this page.

How they compare this season

This seasonMontréal CanadiensToronto Maple Leafs
Record10-3-38-7-2
Points23 6th of 3218 19th of 32
Goals for per game3.56 10th of 323.65 7th of 32
Goals against per game3.19 17th of 323.29 19th of 32
Power play14.0% 30th of 3228.8% 6th of 32
Penalty kill78.5% 14th of 3288.1% 4th of 32

League rank out of 32 beside each figure. Green is a top-ten mark, red a bottom-ten one.

These two score at almost the same rate and concede at almost the same rate. Toronto is seventh in the league for goals per game and 19th for goals against, where Montreal is 10th and 17th. The real difference is on special teams, and it runs both ways.

Special teams

Canadiens power playCanadiens power play: 14.0%, 30th of 3214.0% 30thMaple Leafs penalty killMaple Leafs penalty kill: 88.1%, 4th of 3288.1% 4thMaple Leafs power playMaple Leafs power play: 28.8%, 6th of 3228.8% 6thCanadiens penalty killCanadiens penalty kill: 78.5%, 14th of 3278.5% 14th

Each power play set against the kill it will face, with the league rank beside the figure. A top power play against a bottom kill is the single most reliable edge in a hockey preview.

Toronto’s power play against Montreal’s kill is the mismatch, sixth in the league against 14th. The reverse is worse. Montreal is converting 14.0 per cent of its own power plays, 30th in the NHL, and it runs into the fourth-best penalty kill in the league. Montreal’s route to a win doesn’t go through the man advantage.

Players to watch

Cole Caufield
11Goals
4Assists
15Points
54Shots
Points in his last 5
27 October v Blues: 0G 0A, 3 shots0STL29 October v Stars: 2G 0A, 3 shots2DAL31 October v Penguins: 0G 0A, 2 shots0PIT3 November v Jets: 2G 0A, 4 shots2WPG5 November v Mammoth: 1G 0A, 6 shots1UTA
Nick Suzuki
6Goals
9Assists
15Points
30Shots
Points in his last 5
13 October v Sabres: 0G 1A, 5 shots1BUF14 October v Capitals: 1G 0A, 3 shots1WSH17 October v Sabres: 0G 1A, 2 shots1BUF20 October v Sharks: 1G 1A, 4 shots2SJS5 November v Mammoth: 1G 2A, 4 shots3UTA
Auston Matthews
11Goals
15Assists
26Points
51Shots
Points in his last 5
24 October v Oilers: 1G 0A, 2 shots1EDM26 October v Flames: 0G 1A, 1 shots1CGY28 October v Kraken: 1G 2A, 4 shots3SEA31 October v Canucks: 1G 0A, 2 shots1VAN3 November v Mammoth: 0G 2A, 5 shots2UTA
William Nylander
10Goals
11Assists
21Points
49Shots
Points in his last 5
24 October v Oilers: 2G 0A, 3 shots2EDM26 October v Flames: 1G 0A, 4 shots1CGY28 October v Kraken: 0G 0A, 3 shots0SEA31 October v Canucks: 1G 1A, 2 shots2VAN3 November v Mammoth: 0G 0A, 3 shots0UTA

Season totals, then points in each of the last five games. The goals, assists and shots behind each bar are in its label.

Cole Caufield has 11 goals and five of them have come in his last five games, the most recent the overtime winner against Utah on Thursday. Nick Suzuki marked his return the same night with a goal and two assists. Auston Matthews has 11 goals and 15 assists in 17 games.

Recent meetings

DateResultVenueWon
29 September 2026Canadiens 3 – 2 Maple LeafsTorontoCanadiens
10 March 2026Maple Leafs 1 – 3 CanadiensMontréalCanadiens
6 December 2025Canadiens 2 – 1 Maple Leafs SOTorontoCanadiens
22 November 2025Maple Leafs 2 – 5 CanadiensMontréalCanadiens
8 October 2025Canadiens 2 – 5 Maple LeafsTorontoMaple Leafs

The most recent meetings between the two clubs. All time the Canadiens lead 419–361 from 780 meetings.

Montreal has won the last four. Two of the five most recent meetings were settled by a single goal and one of those went to a shootout, so the run is narrower than the win column makes it look. The series runs to 780 games, and Montreal leads it 419-361.

How the last meeting unfolded

0123William Nylander (Maple Leafs) · period 1 00:48 · even strength · 0-1Josh Anderson (Canadiens) · period 1 10:53 · even strength · 1-1Zachary Bolduc (Canadiens) · period 2 04:52 · even strength · 2-1Alexandre Carrier (Canadiens) · period 3 13:12 · even strength · 3-1William Nylander (Maple Leafs) · period 3 15:46 · even strength · 3-2
● Canadiens 3   ● Maple Leafs 2

The running score in the last meeting, one step per goal. Each point names its scorer, the time and the strength it came at.

The September game turned early and stayed turned. William Nylander scored 48 seconds in, Montreal answered with three straight, and Nylander’s second with four minutes left was as close as Toronto got.

Where both clubs shoot from

Montréal Canadiens
Nick Suzuki · shot · blocked shot · even strengthChris Kreider · snap · shot on goal · even strengthNoah Dobson · shot · blocked shot · even strengthMike Matheson · shot · blocked shot · even strengthAlex Newhook · shot · blocked shot · even strengthAlexandre Texier · snap · missed shot · even strengthIvan Demidov · shot · blocked shot · special teamsJuraj Slafkovský · tip-in · shot on goal · special teamsNoah Dobson · shot · blocked shot · special teamsJosh Anderson · tip-in · shot on goal · even strengthJosh Anderson · bat · goal · even strengthMike Matheson · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthJosh Anderson · wrist · missed shot · even strengthJuraj Slafkovský · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthNick Suzuki · backhand · shot on goal · even strengthCole Caufield · wrist · missed shot · even strengthCole Caufield · slap · shot on goal · even strengthIvan Demidov · shot · blocked shot · even strengthIvan Demidov · tip-in · missed shot · even strengthJake Evans · wrist · missed shot · even strengthJosh Anderson · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthKirby Dach · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthZachary Bolduc · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthNoah Dobson · snap · shot on goal · even strengthZachary Bolduc · wrist · goal · even strengthKirby Dach · shot · blocked shot · even strengthCole Caufield · tip-in · missed shot · even strengthLane Hutson · wrist · missed shot · even strengthMike Matheson · slap · shot on goal · even strengthCole Caufield · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthAlex Newhook · backhand · missed shot · even strengthAlex Newhook · tip-in · shot on goal · even strengthMike Matheson · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthAlexandre Carrier · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthJuraj Slafkovský · slap · missed shot · even strengthAlexandre Texier · shot · blocked shot · even strengthIvan Demidov · shot · blocked shot · even strengthJayden Struble · shot · blocked shot · even strengthAlexandre Carrier · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthNick Suzuki · shot · blocked shot · even strengthJake Evans · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthMike Matheson · shot · blocked shot · even strengthCole Caufield · wrist · shot on goal · special teamsLane Hutson · shot · blocked shot · special teamsIvan Demidov · wrist · shot on goal · special teamsJuraj Slafkovský · wrist · missed shot · special teamsChris Kreider · tip-in · missed shot · special teamsNoah Dobson · shot · blocked shot · even strengthAlexandre Carrier · wrist · goal · even strengthKirby Dach · wrist · missed shot · even strengthJuraj Slafkovský · wrist · missed shot · special teamsAlexandre Carrier · wrist · missed shot · special teams
52 attempts · 3 goals · 42 at even strength
Toronto Maple Leafs
Jack Roslovic · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthWilliam Nylander · wrist · goal · even strengthAuston Matthews · tip-in · shot on goal · even strengthOliver Ekman-Larsson · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthAuston Matthews · slap · shot on goal · even strengthDarren Raddysh · slap · shot on goal · even strengthWilliam Nylander · slap · shot on goal · special teamsJohn Tavares · tip-in · shot on goal · special teamsGavin McKenna · shot · blocked shot · special teamsKirill Marchenko · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthDarren Raddysh · snap · shot on goal · even strengthDarren Raddysh · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthKirill Marchenko · snap · shot on goal · even strengthWilliam Nylander · backhand · missed shot · even strengthJohn Tavares · wrap-around · missed shot · even strengthGavin McKenna · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthColton Sissons · tip-in · missed shot · even strengthJake McCabe · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthChris Tanev · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthKirill Marchenko · backhand · missed shot · even strengthJohn Tavares · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthDarren Raddysh · wrist · missed shot · even strengthAuston Matthews · shot · blocked shot · even strengthJack Roslovic · shot · blocked shot · special teamsKirill Marchenko · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthKirill Marchenko · snap · missed shot · even strengthWilliam Nylander · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthJake McCabe · wrist · missed shot · even strengthTeddy Blueger · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthJake McCabe · shot · blocked shot · even strengthJack Roslovic · tip-in · shot on goal · even strengthWilliam Nylander · slap · shot on goal · even strengthEaston Cowan · wrist · shot on goal · even strengthWilliam Nylander · wrist · missed shot · even strengthJohn Tavares · wrist · shot on goal · special teamsWilliam Nylander · shot · blocked shot · special teamsJohn Tavares · wrist · shot on goal · special teamsTroy Stecher · shot · blocked shot · even strengthKirill Marchenko · slap · shot on goal · even strengthJohn Tavares · shot · blocked shot · even strengthWilliam Nylander · wrist · goal · even strengthDarren Raddysh · shot · blocked shot · even strengthBrandon Duhaime · shot · blocked shot · even strengthKirill Marchenko · shot · blocked shot · even strengthKirill Marchenko · shot · blocked shot · even strengthAuston Matthews · wrist · shot on goal · special teamsJohn Tavares · bat · missed shot · special teamsDarren Raddysh · snap · missed shot · special teamsWilliam Nylander · shot · blocked shot · special teams
49 attempts · 2 goals · 38 at even strength

Every attempt in the last meeting, from centre ice to the end boards, each club attacking to the right. The half rink is drawn to scale: blue line, faceoff circles, crease, goal line and net. A filled circle is a shot on goal, a larger purple one is a goal, and an outline is a miss or a block. Hover or tap a shot for the shooter and the situation. 4 attempts from inside the shooting club’s own half are left off.

Montreal put 52 attempts on the Toronto end in that game to Toronto’s 49, and 42 of Montreal’s came at even strength against Toronto’s 38. Every goal was scored at even strength. Neither club’s special teams would draw it up that way.

Results so far

Montréal Canadiens10-3-3 · goal difference +6
+1−1+2−2+3−3+4−4+5−529 September: beat the Maple Leafs 3-2 (away)@ TOR3 October: lost to the Penguins 5-6 (away) in OT/SO@ PIT6 October: lost to the Hurricanes 4-6 (home)v CAR8 October: lost to the Predators 2-5 (home)v NSH10 October: beat the Red Wings 1-0 (home) in OT/SOv DET13 October: beat the Sabres 4-3 (home) in OT/SOv BUF14 October: lost to the Capitals 4-5 (away)@ WSH17 October: beat the Sabres 4-3 (home) in OT/SOv BUF20 October: lost to the Sharks 3-4 (home) in OT/SOv SJS23 October: beat the Blackhawks 4-1 (away)@ CHI25 October: beat the Jets 2-1 (away)@ WPG27 October: beat the Blues 2-0 (away)@ STL29 October: beat the Stars 5-2 (away)@ DAL31 October: beat the Penguins 5-4 (home)v PIT3 November: lost to the Jets 4-5 (home) in OT/SOv WPG5 November: beat the Mammoth 5-4 (home) in OT/SOv UTA
Toronto Maple Leafs8-7-2 · goal difference +6
+1−1+2−2+3−3+4−4+5−529 September: lost to the Canadiens 2-3 (home)v MTL30 September: beat the Islanders 2-1 (home)v NYI3 October: lost to the Senators 2-3 (home)v OTT6 October: beat the Predators 5-4 (home) in OT/SOv NSH8 October: lost to the Golden Knights 3-4 (away) in OT/SO@ VGK10 October: beat the Avalanche 6-3 (away)@ COL13 October: lost to the Mammoth 4-5 (away)@ UTA15 October: lost to the Sabres 4-5 (home) in OT/SOv BUF17 October: lost to the Islanders 1-4 (home)v NYI19 October: beat the Sharks 3-1 (home)v SJS20 October: beat the Blue Jackets 6-2 (away)@ CBJ22 October: beat the Rangers 5-4 (home)v NYR24 October: beat the Oilers 7-2 (away)@ EDM26 October: lost to the Flames 2-5 (away)@ CGY28 October: lost to the Kraken 4-5 (away)@ SEA31 October: beat the Canucks 4-2 (away)@ VAN3 November: lost to the Mammoth 2-3 (home)v UTA

One bar per game this season, oldest first. Above the line is a win, below is a defeat, and amber is a defeat past regulation. “v” is home and “@” is away, and each bar carries the score.

Score prediction

Montreal played on Thursday night and Toronto did not, so Toronto comes into this the fresher of the two and has the building behind it. That is worth something. The goaltending gap is worth more.

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs prediction

The better goaltender, the better recent record against Toronto and a game in hand: that is what Montreal brings to a side that has won eight of 17.

The case against is Toronto’s power play, sixth in the league against a Montreal kill ranked 14th, and the fact that Montreal’s own power play has stopped working. If this becomes a special-teams game, Toronto wins it.

Our pick: Montreal to win. Canadiens 4–3 Maple Leafs. What would change it: if Fowler were not in the Montreal net. Jakub Dobes has a .847 save percentage across seven starts, and that would turn the pick around.

Each week’s NHL power rankings slots both teams into the full order, and the NHL schedule has the rest of Saturday’s card. Our NHL player props page lists the skater and goalie lines the Canadian books have posted.

Who is starting in goal for Montreal against Toronto?

Jacob Fowler is the likely starter. He has taken nine of Montreal’s 16 starts and is 7-1-1 with a .925 save percentage. Clubs confirm a goalie after the morning skate, so treat it as a projection.

What channel is Canadiens vs Maple Leafs on in Canada?

Sportsnet has it, with French-language coverage on TVA Sports. Puck drop is 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT on Saturday 7 November.

Who has won more Canadiens vs Maple Leafs games?

Montreal, by 419 wins to 361 across 780 meetings. Montreal has also won four of the last five since.

19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Picks are opinion, not advice, and odds change constantly. Availability varies by province. Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 for Ontario residents; see your province’s helpline for resources elsewhere.