Senators vs Maple Leafs: Prediction, Team News and Toronto’s Goalie Question

Result: Ottawa Senators 3-2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Stephen Halliday won it in the third. Thomas Chabot opened the scoring, Auston Matthews and Kirill Marchenko put Toronto ahead inside the second, then Michael Amadio levelled and Halliday finished it. Linus Ullmark made 27 saves. Sergei Bobrovsky lost his second start of the season.

Our pick: Ottawa. Correct. The score prediction was 4-3 Ottawa, so the winner was right and the total a goal out at each end. Five goals came in under the 6 we named for the over.

The preview as published before the game follows.

Senators vs Maple Leafs is the first Battle of Ontario of the season, and it is Ottawa’s season opener. The Senators have not played a competitive game yet. Toronto have played two, and already used both of their goaltenders.

These two finished nineteen places apart last season. Ottawa were ninth. Toronto were 28th. Both have since lost a player they built around.

How to watch

Broadcast listings change and regional blackouts can apply, so check your provider close to puck drop. Our how to watch the NHL in Canada page has the full national picture.

Senators vs Maple Leafs odds

The Canadian books had not posted a price for this game when we checked on 1 October. The feed prices the nearest fixtures first. We will add the board once it lands, and live prices across the league sit on our NHL odds page.

Ottawa have lost their captain

Brady Tkachuk was traded to Florida in June. Ottawa took two 2026 first-round picks, a conditional 2029 first and a 2027 second for him. He had 22 goals and 59 points in 60 games last season, and he had been the face of the club for seven years.

That is a lot of return for a player still in his twenties, and it tells you how Ottawa see the next three seasons. It also leaves a gap nobody on this roster has filled before.

Tim Stützle is the one who has to. He put up 83 points last season on 34 goals, the most on the team, and at 24 he is now the senior scoring option. Drake Batherson added 33 goals and 71 points alongside him.

Ottawa also brought in William Eklund from San Jose. Fifty-three points last season, though at minus 31 on a bad team, and Andre Burakovsky from Chicago.

How they compare

Last season’s rates, which travel better from one year to the next than a record does.

Toronto have rebuilt the crease, and nobody knows who starts

This is the most interesting thing about the Senators vs Maple Leafs matchup.

Toronto traded Joseph Woll to Philadelphia in June. They signed Sergei Bobrovsky, a 38-year-old two-time Vezina winner, and kept Anthony Stolarz. Then they split the first two nights of the season between them.

Bobrovsky lost the opener. Stolarz won the next night and took first star. Neither has settled the job.

The 2025-26 numbers do not settle it either. Bobrovsky went 27-23-1 for Florida at a .877 save percentage, which is poor by his own standards. Stolarz managed .893 across 26 games. Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark was better than both, at 28-12-8 and .891 across 49 appearances, with three shutouts.

Elvis Merzlikins, Toronto’s third option, is on injured reserve with a shoulder problem until late March.

There is an 18-year-old on the Toronto roster

Gavin McKenna went first overall to Toronto in the 2026 draft, out of Penn State, and is on the NHL roster. He signed a three-year contract in July and turns 19 in December. He has not played an NHL game.

Toronto scored 253 goals last season and have since lost Matthew Knies to Columbus. Kirill Marchenko came the other way with 27 goals, 67 points and a plus seven, the only positive rating among their top forwards. The deal is covered on our Knies and Marchenko trade page.

The other addition is quieter and may matter more. Darren Raddysh arrived from Tampa Bay with 70 points and a plus 21 from defence. No Toronto skater finished better than plus eight last season.

Team news

Jake Sanderson is the name to watch on the morning skate. He is day to day and listed for this game date. Fifty-four points and a plus 16 from defence last season, and Ottawa’s best defenceman by some way. Warren Foegele is also listed for 3 October.

Toronto’s absences are longer but less sharp. Max Domi had complications after summer surgery and is out until late November. Availability across the league is on our NHL injury report.

What happened last season

Ottawa won three of the four meetings, and the last three in a row.

Toronto’s only win came in December in a game that finished 7-5. After that Ottawa won three straight and conceded five goals across them.

The preseason went the other way. The clubs met twice on 23 September in a split-squad double-header, and Toronto won both, 6-1 and 4-2. Preseason lineups are not these lineups, so treat it lightly.

Players to watch

Tim Stützle. Eighty-three points and now the first name on Ottawa’s sheet. The season tells us a lot about whether the Tkachuk trade works.

William Nylander. Scored both Toronto goals on opening night. Thirty goals and 79 points last season on a team that finished 28th.

Jake Sanderson, if he plays. Fifty-four points and plus 16 from the blue line. Ottawa are a different team without him.

Whoever starts for Toronto. Bobrovsky lost, Stolarz won, and the first Battle of Ontario of the season is a strange place to be auditioning.

Score prediction

Ottawa Senators 4-3 Toronto Maple Leafs. Ottawa were twenty-one points better last season and won three of the four meetings. Toronto are at home, have two games of rhythm already, and Ottawa have not played since September.

Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction

The gap on last season’s table is real. Ottawa finished ninth at plus 32, better than every Canadian club except Montréal. Toronto finished 28th at minus 46.

Three things cut against simply taking Ottawa. Toronto are home. Toronto have played twice and Ottawa have not played at all. And Ottawa are without their captain for the first competitive game since the trade.

Our lean: Ottawa, and the over if the total sits at 6 or lower. Three of the four meetings last season cleared six goals, including a 7-5. Toronto conceded 299 goals last season and their goaltending is unsettled. We will firm the Senators vs Maple Leafs call up when the board posts.

Where these two sit against the other 30 is on our NHL power rankings.

19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Odds are approximate at the time of writing and change constantly. Availability varies by province. Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 for Ontario residents; see your province’s helpline for resources elsewhere.