Thursday, June 25 at 7:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM CT / 4:00 PM PT, Arrowhead Stadium plays host to a Group F finale that asks two very different questions of two very different sides.
Our World Cup 2026 Tunisia vs Netherlands prediction starts from a familiar place at this World Cup: the Dutch on top of the group with progression secured, Tunisia eliminated after back-to-back hammerings. Netherlands arrive with four points and a goal difference of plus-four after Saturday’s 5-1 demolition of Sweden in Houston, and need only a draw to lock down top spot in the group. Tunisia are already out, having shipped nine goals across MD1 and MD2 and scored just once.
bet365 prices the Dutch at -800 on the moneyline, with Tunisia a 22-to-one shot at +2200 and the draw at +700. The market is reflecting what the table already says — Oranje have the better players, the better recent form, and far less to manage in a fixture they should be able to dictate.
Market consensus: Kalshi traders price Tunisia at 4%, the draw at 10%, and Netherlands at 88%. Full breakdown below.
Tunisia vs Netherlands: Best Bets & Predictions
The shape of the bet is obvious — a heavy favorite against an eliminated side. The interesting question is whether to take the price on the Dutch straight, or build round goals, scorers, and a likely scoreline. Our picks lean toward the latter.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands to Win | -800 @ bet365 (88.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | The Dutch are the only team in Group F with a positive goal difference and four points already on the board. Tunisia have lost both group games by a combined 9-1, with no answer at either end. The draw at +700 looks generous, but the win is the cleaner anchor. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -225 @ bet365 (69.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Netherlands have scored seven across their two group games and Tunisia have conceded nine. The Dutch put five past Sweden last time out and Japan stuck four past Tunisia. Three goals is comfortably the line of least resistance. |
| Correct Score: Tunisia 0-3 Netherlands | +550 @ bet365 (15.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | The bookmaker’s second-shortest correct score on the slate, behind only 0-2. The Dutch put five past Sweden last time out, the Tunisia back line has been there to be exposed, and a clean three-goal margin lands the Netherlands win, Over 2.5, and BTTS No on the same scoreline. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -200 @ bet365 (66.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Tunisia have scored just once across their two group games — a consolation against Sweden in a 5-1 defeat. With the Eagles of Carthage going home and the Dutch’s defense anchored by Virgil van Dijk, the cleaner read is a Tunisia blank. |
| Cody Gakpo to Score Anytime | -110 @ bet365 (52.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Cody Gakpo has been Oranje’s most reliable goal threat across the qualifying cycle and the tournament so far. Against a Tunisia back line that has shipped nine goals in two matches, a player operating as the Dutch left-sided forward against tiring legs is the obvious anytime call. |
Our approach: anchor on Netherlands to Win, add Over 2.5 for the parlay leg, and treat Gakpo Anytime as the value-add player prop. The correct-score pick is the speculative shot.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
The match-level read on Kalshi points firmly toward Netherlands. Traders are pricing Tunisia at 4% to win, the draw at 10%, and Netherlands at 88%.
Across the wider group, Kalshi has Tunisia at 1% to qualify from Group F and 1% to win it, with Netherlands at 99% / 78%.
Beyond the group, here is how Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices each side’s tournament arc:
| Team | Group exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia | 99% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Netherlands | 2% | 39% | 12% | 44% | 11% | 4% | 8% |
Kalshi is the prediction-market platform available to US traders in all 50 states. Prices move with money, not a bookmaker’s margin, so the implied probabilities above read as a live market consensus.
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Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
World Cup Form & Standings
Netherlands sit top of Group F on four points after a 2-2 draw with Japan and that 5-1 win over Sweden. Tunisia prop up the group on zero, with two defeats and a goal difference of minus-eight. Sweden and Japan play the other Group F finale; the Dutch’s progression is locked, only seeding remains in question.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 4 |
| Japan | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| Sweden | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| Tunisia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Cody Gakpo (Netherlands): Oranje’s sharpest edge in the final third — a left-sided forward who has carried the Dutch attacking line through qualifying and into the group stage. Against a Tunisia defense that has not contained anyone, he is the cleanest goal pick.
- Tijjani Reijnders (Netherlands): The Milan midfielder gives this Dutch side a different kind of threat — late runs into the box and a willingness to shoot from range. With Tunisia camped in their own half, second-phase chances will come, and Reijnders is the man on the end of them.
- Virgil van Dijk (Netherlands): The captain anchors the back four and is the reason the BTTS No price reads short. Aerially dominant, calm on the ball, and the spine of any Dutch clean sheet. Worth weighing when reading the goals markets, not as a scorer pick.
- Hannibal Mejbri (Tunisia): Tunisia’s brightest creative spark — the only realistic source of a consolation. Energy and set-piece quality on a night where Tunisia will have very little of the ball. If they score, he is likely involved.
Head-to-Head
The two nations have never met in a competitive senior international. There is no head-to-head record to draw on — Friday night will be a first meeting between Tunisia and the Netherlands.
Recent Form
Tunisia: L L
- Jun 21, 2026: Tunisia 0-4 Japan (L)
- Jun 15, 2026: Sweden 5-1 Tunisia (L)
Two World Cup matches, two heavy defeats, nine goals shipped. The Eagles of Carthage have been picked apart in transition by both Sweden and Japan, with the back line struggling to contain runners between the lines. The lone goal — a consolation against Sweden — has been the solitary bright spot.
Netherlands: D W
- Jun 20, 2026: Netherlands 5-1 Sweden (W)
- Jun 14, 2026: Netherlands 2-2 Japan (D)
A nervy opener against Japan gave way to a clinical second outing against Sweden. Oranje have looked sharper as the tournament has gone on, with the front line clicking and the midfield finding its rhythm. They go into MD3 with momentum and a settled XI.
Tunisia vs Netherlands Prediction
The Dutch should win this comfortably. Tunisia have no answer at either end, the Netherlands are full of running, and a 3-0 type scoreline is the bookmaker’s preferred read of the market. Take Netherlands to Win at -800 with bet365 as the anchor, layer Over 2.5 Goals on top, and treat Gakpo Anytime as the player-prop value. Kick-off is 7:00 PM ET from Arrowhead Stadium. For the other Group F finale, see our Japan vs Sweden preview, and for sportsbook context our bet365 review walks through the operator.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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