Scotland face Brazil at Hard Rock Stadium on Wednesday, June 24 (6:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM CT / 3:00 PM PT), needing a result that no Scottish side has ever managed against the five-time world champions to seal a first knockout-stage appearance in their World Cup 2026 story.
Steve Clarke’s side arrive in Miami with three points and a clean defensive profile, having beaten Haiti and lost narrowly to Morocco. Brazil sit top of Group C on four after a 1-1 draw with Morocco and a 3-0 win over Haiti, and they will be without Raphinha, ruled out with a hamstring injury picked up in the second game. The Atlas Lions meet Haiti at the same kickoff, so every permutation in the group depends on results elsewhere.
bet365 prices Brazil at -275 to win, with Scotland at +700 and the draw at +400. The market reads the Seleção as the clear favorites, but it also reflects the volume of Group C’s permutations — Brazil’s last three group-stage exits at major tournaments have arrived on matchday three, a number the Tartan Army will lean into.
Market consensus: Kalshi traders price Scotland at 12%, the draw at 18%, and Brazil at 72%. Full breakdown below.
Scotland vs Brazil: Best Bets & Predictions
This is a fixture for measured picks, not blanket favorite-backing. Brazil are the better side, but the price is short and Scotland’s defensive shape has held up well against a top-ten opponent.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil to Win | -275 @ bet365 (73.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Ancelotti’s side top the group, carry the deeper attack, and Scotland have never beaten Brazil in 11 meetings — the gap in personnel still tells. |
| Both Teams to Score — No | -163 @ bet365 (62.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Scotland did not register a shot on target against Morocco. Brazil have conceded only the once at this tournament. The shape of this game leans heavily towards a Scottish blank. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | -111 @ bet365 (52.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Clarke will set up to frustrate from the first whistle. Brazil have managed only one goal in two halves of football against an organized defense in this tournament so far. |
| Correct Score: Scotland 0-1 Brazil | +550 @ bet365 (15.4%) | ⭐⭐ | The historical scoreline between these two — both 1990 and 1998 ended this way. Scotland’s low block plus a single moment of Brazilian quality is a believable shape for the evening. |
| Matheus Cunha to Score Anytime | +210 @ bet365 (32.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Two goals in his last two for Brazil. With Raphinha out, the central focal point of Brazil’s attack runs through Cunha, who is averaging a goal every 46 minutes at this tournament. |
Our approach: anchor the slate on Brazil with BTTS No, layer Under 2.5 for value, and add Cunha anytime as the player leg. The 1-0 correct score is a small-stakes value play given the H2H pattern.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
The match-level read on Kalshi points firmly toward Brazil. Traders are pricing Scotland at 12% to win, the draw at 18%, and Brazil at 72%.
Across the wider group, Kalshi has Scotland at 76% to qualify from Group C and 2% to win it, with Brazil at 99% / 66%.
Beyond the group, here is how Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices each side’s tournament arc:
| Team | Group exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 20% | 57% | 14% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 4% |
| Brazil | 4% | 36% | 23% | 26% | 6% | 9% | 18% |
Kalshi is the prediction-market platform available to US traders in all 50 states. Prices move with money, not a bookmaker’s margin, so the implied probabilities above read as a live market consensus.
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Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
World Cup Form & Standings
Group C is the World Cup’s permutation puzzle. Brazil and Morocco are level on four points and only goal difference separates them at the top; Scotland are a point behind and the only side from outside the top two with progression still in their own hands.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
| Morocco | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| Scotland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Haiti | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
A Brazil win locks top spot regardless of Morocco’s result. A draw leaves the Seleção comfortable, with Scotland needing a Haiti upset to leapfrog Morocco for second. A Scotland win is the only Group C result that scrambles the seedings beyond recognition.
Potential Match-Winners
- Vinícius Júnior (Brazil): Two goals and an assist across his first two World Cup appearances, with three shots on target and an xG of 0.43. The Real Madrid forward is Brazil’s primary creator in the absence of Raphinha, and the Scotland fullbacks will see plenty of him drifting in from the left.
- Matheus Cunha (Brazil): Two goals in 93 tournament minutes, with an xG of 0.74. Cunha has emerged as the central reference point for Brazil’s attack and looks the likeliest goalscorer in the squad with Raphinha sidelined.
- John McGinn (Scotland): One goal from one shot on target in 172 minutes, and the only Scotland player to put the ball in the net at this tournament so far. McGinn’s running power between the lines is Clarke’s best route to a counter-attacking opening.
- Scott McTominay (Scotland): Played every minute of Scotland’s two group games with an xG of 0.53 from deep midfield. The Manchester United midfielder will need to weigh defensive duty against the late runs into the box that turned him into a goalscorer at club level last season.
Head-to-Head
These two have met five times, four of them at the World Cup, and Scotland have never won. Brazil claimed 4-1 in 1982, 1-0 in 1990 and 2-1 in 1998 — that last defeat ending Scotland’s most recent World Cup campaign before this one. Their only non-defeat came at West Germany 1974, a goalless draw. Across those five meetings Brazil have scored nine goals and conceded just two.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2011 | Brazil 2-0 Scotland | Friendly |
| Jun 10, 1998 | Brazil 2-1 Scotland | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 1990 | Brazil 1-0 Scotland | World Cup |
| Jun 18, 1982 | Brazil 4-1 Scotland | World Cup |
| Jun 18, 1974 | Scotland 0-0 Brazil | World Cup |
Recent Form
Scotland: W L
- Jun 20, 2026: Scotland 0-1 Morocco (L)
- Jun 15, 2026: Scotland 1-0 Haiti (W)
Two contrasting halves of a group stage. Scotland built their three points on the back of John McGinn’s goal against Haiti, then ran into a Morocco side that struck inside 70 seconds and never gave the ball back. Clarke’s side did not register a shot on target in the second game but came away with their defensive shape intact, conceding only once across 180 minutes.
Brazil: D W
- Jun 21, 2026: Brazil 3-0 Haiti (W)
- Jun 17, 2026: Brazil 1-1 Morocco (D)
The opening draw with Morocco hinted at the defensive frailties Clarke will have studied in detail. The Haiti win restored confidence, with Matheus Cunha’s brace underlining his growing influence as Brazil’s central focal point. Vinícius Júnior remains the most dangerous player on the pitch whenever he receives the ball in space.
Scotland vs Brazil Prediction
Brazil are the favorites and will likely top Group C, but they have not been at their devastating best in Florida and Raphinha’s absence trims their attacking ceiling. A low-scoring Brazilian win is the percentage call — anchor the slate on Brazil to win at -275 with bet365, layer the Under 2.5 and BTTS No for value, and watch a Morocco-Haiti result that may yet shape who plays whom in the round of 32. The bigger story sits over at the tournament outright market, where Brazil remain among the favorites whatever happens on Wednesday night in Miami.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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