Panama vs Croatia kicks off on Tuesday, June 23 at 7:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM CT / 4:00 PM PT at BMO Field in Toronto, with both sides chasing a first World Cup 2026 point after losing their Group L openers.
Our Panama vs Croatia prediction starts from a simple table: Group L’s bottom two meet on the second matchday, and the loser is left hanging by a thread. England top the group on three points after a 4-2 win over Croatia in Arlington. Ghana also have three points after edging Panama 1-0 on this same BMO Field pitch five days earlier.
bet365 prices Croatia at -188 to win, the draw at +300, and Panama at +550. The market treats this as a one-way fixture, and the goalscoring lines tilt heavily towards the Vatreni: Ante Budimir and Andrej Kramarić are the shortest-priced anytime scorers in the match, with Petar Musa just behind after his goal against England.
Market consensus: Kalshi traders price Panama at 14%, the draw at 24%, and Croatia at 64%. Full breakdown below.
Panama vs Croatia: Best Bets & Predictions
The angle here is straightforward: Croatia have to win, the model agrees, and the value sits in the goalscorer markets rather than the headline price.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia to Win | -188 @ bet365 (65%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Croatia outshot England in Arlington and were level at 2-2 at the break before the bench depth ran out. Against a Panama side already beaten on this pitch, that midfield should boss the game. |
| Croatia 2-0 | +600 @ bet365 (14%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Panama have scored once in their last three competitive games and were shut out by Ghana on Wednesday. Croatia win comfortably without needing a third. |
| Andrej Kramarić Anytime Scorer | +125 @ bet365 (44%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Kramarić scored seven in qualifying and is the senior penalty taker. With Croatia chasing the win from minute one, he is the most likely man on the end of a chance. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | -125 @ bet365 (56%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Panama’s last three competitive matches have produced one, two and one goals. A controlled Croatia performance fits the pattern. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -134 @ bet365 (57%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Panama have been blanked in three of their last six competitive outings, including the opener against Ghana. The market is right to lean No. |
Our approach: anchor on Croatia to win, add the 2-0 correct score as the long-shot leg, and treat the Kramaric goalscorer line as the parlay add.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
The match-level read on Kalshi points firmly toward Croatia. Traders are pricing Panama at 14% to win, the draw at 24%, and Croatia at 64%.
Across the wider group, Kalshi has Panama at 11% to qualify from Group L and 1% to win it, with Croatia at 78% / 3%.
Beyond the group, here is how Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices each side’s tournament arc:
| Team | Group exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama | 90% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Croatia | 20% | 42% | 37% | 10% | 19% | 1% | 4% |
Kalshi is the prediction-market platform available to US traders in all 50 states. Prices move with money, not a bookmaker’s margin, so the implied probabilities above read as a live market consensus.
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Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
World Cup Form & Standings
Group L sits split clean down the middle after the opening round: England and Ghana on three points apiece, Panama and Croatia both on zero and both on negative goal difference. The next 90 minutes settle which of the bottom two carries any progression chance into the final group game.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Andrej Kramarić (Croatia): The 34-year-old Hoffenheim forward scored seven in qualifying and is the senior penalty taker. A late substitute against England, he is the most likely man to start through the middle here.
- Petar Musa (Croatia): Got off the mark against England with a sharp finish from a Perišić cross. Six goals in qualifying made him Croatia’s joint-top scorer in the campaign and he gives the Vatreni a more direct lead-line option than Budimir.
- Martin Baturina (Croatia): The 22-year-old Dinamo Zagreb playmaker started against England, played 78 minutes and scored from outside the box. Croatia’s most progressive midfielder once Croatia get into the final third.
- Adalberto Carrasquilla (Panama): Houston Dynamo’s midfield anchor. Played all 90 against Ghana and remains Panama’s chief outlet for transition. If Panama keep this scoreless past the hour, it will be because Carrasquilla and Carlos Harvey have controlled the engine room.
Head-to-Head
This is the first competitive meeting between Panama and Croatia. The two nations have not crossed paths at senior level in qualifying or at a major tournament.
Recent Form
Panama: L
- Jun 17, 2026: Ghana 1-0 Panama (L)
Panama actually arrived at this World Cup off the back of three Concacaf qualifying wins and a draw, but the opener against Ghana broke the rhythm. The attack went quiet for the first time in seven competitive games.
Croatia: L
- Jun 17, 2026: England 4-2 Croatia (L)
Croatia ran England close in Arlington and only fell away once the bench depth told late on. The qualifying run before that was clean: four wins and a draw in their last five before the tournament, with Musa and Kramaric both into double figures across the campaign.
Panama vs Croatia Prediction
Panama play their football with discipline and structure, but they were shut out by a less-creative Ghana side on the same pitch and Croatia’s midfield is a tier above that. Take Croatia to Win at -188 with bet365 as the anchor, with Kramaric to score anytime as the natural add. Kick-off is 7:00 PM ET at BMO Field in Toronto.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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