Chicago have run for 964 yards, more than any team in the NFL, and they get off the field on 25.8% of third downs. Our Patriots vs Bears prediction is the pick of Thursday night.
Both teams are 4-2. The Chicago Bears are +31 on differential, the New England Patriots +23, and the gap between them is almost entirely what happens on first down.
Patriots vs Bears: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT 
Our props
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Patriots vs Bears: 2026 form so far
Two 4-2 teams, separated by eight points of differential. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defense has actually allowed.
Patriots attack against the Bears defense
| Per game | Patriots offense | Bears allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 243.5 | 211.8 |
| Rushing yards | 130.7 | 90.5 |
| Yards per carry | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Passer rating | 92.7 | 99.9 |
| Touchdowns | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 40.5% | 25.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 55.6% | 66.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.8 | 2.8 |
Bears attack against the Patriots defense
| Per game | Bears offense | Patriots allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 227.7 | 209.0 |
| Rushing yards | 160.7 | 91.8 |
| Yards per carry | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| Passer rating | 86.9 | 90.3 |
| Touchdowns | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 45.5% | 37.1% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.5 | 2.3 |
Chicago’s 964 rushing yards lead the league. New England have conceded 3.94 a carry, which is the sterner test that number has faced.
Patriots vs Bears quarterback matchup
Drake Maye has 11 touchdown passes to seven interceptions at 92.8. Caleb Williams has played three games and rates 101.5, and went 30 of 36 last week.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | Drake Maye | 18/32, 235 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg | 117/183, 1463 yds, 11 TD, 7 INT, 92.8 rtg (6 games) |
| Bears | Caleb Williams | 30/36, 305 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 111.2 rtg | 66/91, 712 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 101.5 rtg (3 games) |
Patriots vs Bears injury report and team news
Chicago have run for 964 yards, more than any team in the NFL, at 4.46 a carry.
Caleb Williams has started three games and completed 30 of 36 for 305 yards in the most recent one.
New England lost Romeo Doubs to injured reserve on 19 October, and Mack Hollins before him.
Third down is where this is decided
Chicago’s defense allows a conversion on 25.8% of third downs. Only one defense in the league is better, and the Bears are 4-2 largely because of it.
New England move the chains on 40.5% of their own, so something has to give. The Patriots have also conceded only 11 sacks; Chicago have given up 15.
Where Chicago are vulnerable is the same place they are strong. They run it more than anyone and rate 86.9 through the air, so a lead forces them into the phase they do least well.
Players to watch
- Drake Maye (NE, QB): 1,463 passing yards and 11 touchdowns in six games.
- Caleb Williams (CHI, QB): A 101.5 rating from three starts, and 305 yards last time out.
- Hunter Henry (NE, TE): A steady outlet in an offense converting 40.5% on third down.
- Rome Odunze (CHI, WR): The first read in a passing game that rates 86.9.
How to watch Patriots vs Bears
Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, October 22 at Soldier Field, which is 7:15 PM CT and 5:15 PM PT. Prime Video has the exclusive broadcast.
| Detail | Patriots vs Bears |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, October 22, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 PM ET / 7:15 PM CT / 5:15 PM PT |
| Venue | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| TV | Prime Video |
| Live stream | NFL+ / Prime Video |
| Week | Week 7, 2026 NFL season |
Patriots vs Bears prediction and score projection
New England win 24-21. The Bears’ third-down defense keeps this close, but Maye has the better supporting numbers and New England protect him better.
The live spread and our projected margin both update on this page through the week.
Every Week 7 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Patriots @ Bears | Patriots 24-21 | You are here |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Steelers @ Saints | Steelers 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Ravens | Ravens 27-23 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Titans | Browns 20-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Vikings | Vikings 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Dolphins @ Jets | Jets 20-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Texans | Texans 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | 49ers @ Falcons | 49ers 30-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Buccaneers @ Panthers | Panthers 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Cardinals | Broncos 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Packers @ Lions | Lions 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Rams @ Raiders | Rams 27-23 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Chiefs @ Seahawks | Chiefs 24-23 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Cowboys @ Eagles | Eagles 23-20 | Read |
The rest of the round sits in NFL predictions for the round and our NFL betting coverage. The outright markets are priced in the AFC board. Player markets sit with prop markets for this game.
Patriots vs Bears FAQ
New England, narrowly. Our Signal model has the Patriots as slight favorites and the live number sits in the Signal card on this page. Both teams are 4-2, though Chicago are +31 on differential to New England’s +23.
8:15 PM ET on Thursday, October 22 at Soldier Field, which is 7:15 PM CT and 5:15 PM PT.
Chicago, with 964 rushing yards — more than any team in the NFL — at 4.46 a carry.
Opponents convert 25.8% against them, the second-best rate in the league.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Signal probabilities and odds approximate at time of writing and subject to change