Connor McDavid has 34 points in twelve games. That is 2.83 a night, and it is quicker than the rate Wayne Gretzky set the single-season record at. The Connor McDavid stats below are current to 27 October, and the case for why the pace does not survive the winter comes after them.
Connor McDavid stats, 2026-27
| 2026-27 | Connor McDavid |
|---|---|
| Games played | 12 |
| Goals | 8 |
| Assists | 26 |
| Points | 34 |
| Points per game | 2.83 |
| Plus-minus | +16 |
| Shots | 30 |
| Shooting percentage | 26.7% |
| Time on ice per game | 23:53 |
The assists are the story. Twenty-six in twelve games is 2.17 a night, and Edmonton is scoring more than any club in the league. He is also playing 23:53 a game, two minutes more than his career average, which is the one input here that looks built to last.
The pace is quicker than the one that set the record
Gretzky’s 215 points in 1985-86 is the record and it has never been approached. He scored 52 goals and set up 163 across an 80-game season, a rate of 2.69 a game. Nobody has reached 200 since. Mario Lemieux came closest with 199 in 1988-89.
McDavid is going at 2.83. The season is 84 games now, up from 82, so the same rate over a full year comes to 238 points. That is the number doing the rounds and it is arithmetically correct. It is also the least likely of the four outcomes further down this page.
Every McDavid season since 2015-16
| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | 45 | 16 | 32 | 48 | 1.07 |
| 2016-17 | 82 | 30 | 70 | 100 | 1.22 |
| 2017-18 | 82 | 41 | 67 | 108 | 1.32 |
| 2018-19 | 78 | 41 | 75 | 116 | 1.49 |
| 2019-20 | 64 | 34 | 63 | 97 | 1.52 |
| 2020-21 | 56 | 33 | 72 | 105 | 1.88 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 44 | 79 | 123 | 1.54 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 64 | 89 | 153 | 1.87 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 32 | 100 | 132 | 1.74 |
| 2024-25 | 67 | 26 | 74 | 100 | 1.49 |
| 2025-26 | 82 | 48 | 90 | 138 | 1.68 |
| 2026-27 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 34 | 2.83 |
His best full season was 2022-23: 153 points in 82 games, 64 of them goals. That is a rate of 1.87. The only time he has gone higher was the 56-game 2020-21, at 1.88. The current 2.83 is 51 per cent above anything he has sustained across a full year.
Two numbers say the goals regress
He is shooting 26.7 per cent. Eight goals have come off thirty shots. His career mark is 15.2 per cent across 2,743 shots, and his best full season was 18.2. At the career rate those thirty shots return four or five goals, not eight.
The second number points the same way and is less obvious. He is taking 2.5 shots a game against a career average of 3.40. So he is shooting less often than usual and converting far more of it. Those two things do not normally sit together for long.
The assists are on firmer ground, but not firm. Twenty-six in twelve is 2.17 a game. His best assist season was 100 in 76 games in 2023-24, which is 1.32. Even a generous read has that coming down.
What a realistic finish looks like
| If he scores at | Over the last 72 | Final total |
|---|---|---|
| his current 2.83 | 204 | 238 |
| Gretzky’s record rate, 2.69 | 194 | 228 |
| his career best, 1.87 | 134 | 168 |
| last season’s 1.68 | 121 | 155 |
The third row is the one to hold on to. If McDavid reverts to the best full-season rate of his career and plays the rest of the schedule, he finishes on 168. That beats his own career high by fifteen. His 153 in 2022-23 was already the highest anyone had managed since Mario Lemieux’s 161 in 1995-96, so 168 would be the best individual season in three decades. It needs no part of the current shooting percentage to continue.
So how many points will Connor McDavid score?
Somewhere in the 160s to 180s, on this evidence, assuming he stays fit. The Connor McDavid stats that will decide it are the shooting percentage and the games played, not the assist rate, and the first of those is already a long way from where it normally sits.
Two things could move that. Edmonton’s goaltending is poor enough that the Oilers keep playing high-scoring games, which helps him, and Devon Levi’s spell on injured reserve does not change that. Against it, he missed fifteen games in 2024-25 and six in 2023-24, and 84 games is a longer year than any he has played.
We track the scoring race on our NHL scoring leaders page and rank all 32 clubs each week in the NHL power rankings. McDavid’s price for the Hart is on the Hart Trophy odds page.
34 in twelve games: eight goals and twenty-six assists, at 2.83 points a game. He leads the NHL by ten points.
On rate, yes. His 2.83 a game is above the 2.69 Gretzky managed when he set the record at 215 in 1985-86, and over 84 games it projects to 238. His own career best rate is 1.87, so the pace is well clear of anything he has sustained.
2022-23, when he scored 153 points in 82 games with 64 goals. It is his only 160-point-pace season and the high mark of his career so far.
417 goals and 837 assists for 1,254 points in 806 regular-season games, plus 156 points in 102 playoff games.
He is shooting 26.7 per cent against a career mark of 15.2, and taking 2.5 shots a game against a career 3.40. Fewer shots converting at a much higher rate is the pattern that corrects first.
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