Our NFL power rankings were updated on Wednesday 16 September 2026, after every Week 1 game. The next set lands on Tuesday 22 September, once the Monday night game closes out Week 2.
Week 1 did what opening weekends do. The Chargers fell seven places, the biggest drop of the week, after losing at home to a team that won three games all last season. Baltimore and the Giants climbed five. Jacksonville and Kansas City went up four apiece. Buffalo did not budge, because nothing that happened gave the model a reason to move them.
Below is every team, with the Squawka Signal rating behind the order, each side’s record and last result, and how far they have moved since the preseason set. Underneath the table every team gets its own card, so you can scroll to yours and find the rating, the probabilities, the result and the reasoning in one place.
NFL power rankings, Week 2
Squawka Rating is each team’s strength on a 0–100 scale from the Squawka Signal model. The ▲/▼ beside each rank shows movement since the Week 1 rankings. Playoff and Super Bowl odds come from tens of thousands of season simulations.
How to read this table
A power ranking is not a standings table. It asks who is actually good, which is a different question from who has won most so far. One week in, those questions have very different answers, and a list sorted purely by results would put Jacksonville first and the Rams thirtieth. That would be nonsense. The Rams took a beating and remain one of the strongest rosters in the league, which is why they sit eighth rather than near the bottom.
The Squawka Rating is a 0 to 100 measure of team strength from the Signal model. It carries a view of each roster into the season and then adjusts on what happens, weighing the margin and the quality of the opponent rather than the win column alone. That is why Houston dropped five places despite scoring 31 points, and why New England lost only one place despite losing.
The playoff and Super Bowl figures come from simulating the rest of the season many thousands of times. They shift a little on every run, so read small differences as noise and the direction of travel as the point. Movement arrows sit beside the rank this week; from next Tuesday they also sit under the rating and both probabilities, since this is the first edition with a stored baseline to measure against.
The five biggest movers
Los Angeles Chargers, down seven to 18th. The steepest fall of the week. Losing 26-14 at home to a team that finished 3-14 last season is the worst result of Week 1 measured against expectation, and their playoff figure now reads 21%.
Baltimore Ravens, up five to 5th. A 41-23 win in Indianapolis, and the model liked it more than almost anything else that happened. They went 8-9 last season, so this is a rating catching up with a roster rather than reacting to one afternoon.
New York Giants, up five to 19th. Four wins in 2025, then a 28-20 win over Dallas to open this season. Five places is a lot of credit for one game, which tells you how low the starting point was.
Houston Texans, down five to 11th. Harsh on the face of it, because they scored 31 at home against the top-ranked team. Conceding 36 in the same game is what the model noticed.
Jacksonville Jaguars, up four to 3rd, and Kansas City Chiefs, up four to 12th. The two biggest wins of the weekend by margin. Jacksonville beat Cleveland by 24, Kansas City beat Denver by 21.
The contenders, 1 to 8
Rating 99 | Make playoffs 96% | Win Super Bowl 20.4% | Week 1 yards 409 |
Buffalo lead on 99 and did not move, which leaves the widest gap at the top of the table. Winning 36-31 in Houston was the best result of the weekend on paper. It was also the shortest working day.
Week 1 in one number. They won while holding the ball for 23 minutes 43 seconds. No other winning team in Week 1 had it for less. Buffalo averaged 7.9 yards a play to Houston’s 5.2, which is how you win a game you barely take part in.
Rating 91 | Make playoffs 89% | Win Super Bowl 13.3% | Week 1 yards 285 |
Up one after a 13-10 win over New England that was grim by every measure except the one that counts. Seattle led the league on points differential last season at plus 191, so the prior and the result point the same way for once.
Week 1 in one number. Seattle went nought for two in the red zone and two for eleven on third down, and won anyway. Three interceptions covered everything else up.
Rating 86 | Make playoffs 83% | Win Super Bowl 7.8% | Week 1 yards 360 |
Up four, the joint-biggest rise of the week, off the largest margin of Week 1. Thirteen wins last season means this is no longer a surprise, though the opponent matters: Cleveland finished 5-12 and now sit 31st here.
Week 1 in one number. Trevor Lawrence completed 18 of 23 for 245 yards and four touchdowns, a passer rating of 150.6. Nothing else in Week 1 came close, and Jacksonville added five sacks with four penalties and no turnovers.
Rating 84 | Make playoffs 63% | Win Super Bowl 4.3% | Week 1 yards 176 |
Down two, which is lighter punishment than the scoreline deserved. Fourteen wins last season is why the model kept faith. Monday night in Kansas City was the worst offensive performance by anyone in Week 1.
Week 1 in one number. Denver gained 176 yards in total. Kansas City’s running game alone gained 220. Two of twelve on third down, 3.7 yards a play, and four sacks taken.
Rating 83 | Make playoffs 87% | Win Super Bowl 6.9% | Week 1 yards 506 |
Up five, the biggest climb of the week alongside the Giants, after putting 506 yards on Indianapolis. An 8-9 record last season undersold this roster badly and the rating is catching up fast.
Week 1 in one number. Derrick Henry carried 24 times for 144 yards and three touchdowns, and Baltimore still threw for 324 on 25 attempts. Only Chicago gained more yards in Week 1.
Rating 82 | Make playoffs 60% | Win Super Bowl 3.5% | Week 1 yards 277 |
Down one, having lost. Losing by three away to the team now rated second costs almost nothing in a model that weighs opponent and margin. Fourteen wins and plus 170 last season is a serious prior to spend.
Week 1 in one number. New England ran 67 plays to Seattle’s 48 and held the ball for 34:17. Then they threw three interceptions. Drake Maye finished with a passer rating of 54.9.
Rating 81 | Make playoffs 87% | Win Super Bowl 8.6% | Week 1 yards 318 |
Up one after a two-point home win over a team that went 5-12 last season, which is why the rise is small. Their 8.6% Super Bowl figure is the third highest on the page and the 87% playoff number is level with Baltimore.
Week 1 in one number. Jalen Hurts completed 14 of 25, barely over half, and threw three touchdowns for a rating of 122.2. Dallas Goedert caught two of them on four receptions for 77 yards.
Rating 80 | Make playoffs 53% | Win Super Bowl 3.4% | Week 1 yards 290 |
Seven points at home, and a fall of four places. The Rams are still eighth, which is what a 12-5 season and a plus 172 differential buys you. Not falling further is the prior holding firm.
Week 1 in one number. The Rams did not concede a single sack and still failed to score a passing touchdown. Matthew Stafford finished with none, one interception, and a rating of 61.2.
The playoff pack, 9 to 16
Rating 80 | Make playoffs 78% | Win Super Bowl 6.3% | Week 1 yards 379 |
Up three, and the best win of the week by our reading. Going to Los Angeles and winning by 20 combined a strong opponent with a heavy margin, which nothing else in Week 1 managed.
Week 1 in one number. Neither side recorded a sack and San Francisco still won by 20. They ran for 174 at 5.8 a carry, Christian McCaffrey averaged 6.8, and they took two penalties all afternoon.
Rating 79 | Make playoffs 82% | Win Super Bowl 7.0% | Week 1 yards 369 |
Down one despite winning. A 31-30 escape at home against a team that won six games last season is not what a model wants to see. That 82% playoff figure rests on last season’s plus 68 rather than on Sunday.
Week 1 in one number. Jahmyr Gibbs carried 29 times for 156 yards and two touchdowns, and Detroit needed every yard of it. New Orleans ran 86 plays, more than any other team in Week 1, and lost by one.
Rating 78 | Make playoffs 66% | Win Super Bowl 3.5% | Week 1 yards 381 |
Down five, the joint-steepest fall, and harsh on the face of it. Houston scored 31 at home against the top-ranked team, threw no interceptions, and held the ball for 36:17.
Week 1 in one number. They ran 73 plays to Buffalo’s 52 and lost by five. Houston also gave away 106 yards in penalties, and conceded 36 points at home, which is the half of this the model noticed.
Rating 73 | Make playoffs 69% | Win Super Bowl 2.9% | Week 1 yards 392 |
Up four after beating Denver by 21 on Monday night, and the most interesting team on the page. Six wins last season produced a modest rating, but that record came with a positive differential, which usually means close losses rather than a poor team.
Week 1 in one number. Kansas City ran the ball 38 times for 220 yards. Kenneth Walker had 173 of them on 23 carries at 7.5 a go, with a longest run of 60.
Rating 72 | Make playoffs 58% | Win Super Bowl 2.9% | Week 1 yards 552 |
Up two. The highest score of the week by eleven points, and the model still moved them only two places, because conceding 37 to a team that finished 8-9 keeps a rating honest.
Week 1 in one number. Chicago ran for 291 yards and six rushing touchdowns, both comfortably the most in Week 1, and converted ten third downs, also the most. D’Andre Swift had 124 and three scores on 18 carries.
Rating 71 | Make playoffs 64% | Win Super Bowl 2.4% | Week 1 yards 264 |
No movement, and both the rating and the result feel like the Pittsburgh of recent memory: 10-7 last season on a differential of plus 10, then a 20-13 home win that nobody will remember.
Week 1 in one number. Pittsburgh gained 264 yards, converted three of thirteen third downs, and won. Four sacks, two interceptions and two forced fumbles did the work the offence did not.
Rating 67 | Make playoffs 65% | Win Super Bowl 1.8% | Week 1 yards 351 |
Up two after a 33-27 home win. A minus 78 differential last season is a deep hole and one result does not fill it. Their 65% playoff figure sits above Chicago’s and Pittsburgh’s despite the lower rating, which tells you what the model makes of the division.
Week 1 in one number. Cincinnati forced four fumbles, a total only Dallas matched, and Tampa Bay gave the ball away four times in total.
Rating 65 | Make playoffs 32% | Win Super Bowl 1.1% | Week 1 yards 419 |
Down three after the heaviest defeat suffered by anyone in the Signal’s top sixteen. Their 32% playoff figure was already the lowest up here before Sunday, and the division rather than the roster looks like the problem.
Week 1 in one number. This is the one to frame. Green Bay out-gained Minnesota 419 to 239 and lost by 17. One for four in the red zone against four for four, three of twelve on third down against eight of fifteen, and twelve penalties for 98 yards. Jordan Love threw for 387 at a 50% completion rate.
In the hunt, 17 to 24
Rating 64 | Make playoffs 55% | Win Super Bowl 1.8% | Week 1 yards 239 |
Up one. Thirty-nine points at home against a division rival, and a single place gained, because the model noticed how little it took to get there: 239 yards at 3.9 a play.
Week 1 in one number. Minnesota scored three passing touchdowns on 151 passing yards and went four for four in the red zone. Justin Jefferson took two of those scores on eight catches for 92.
Rating 62 | Make playoffs 21% | Win Super Bowl 0.2% | Week 1 yards 268 |
Down seven, the steepest fall on the page. Losing 26-14 at home to a team that won three games last season is the worst Week 1 result anywhere measured against expectation, and an 11-6 finish in 2025 makes it read worse rather than better.
Week 1 in one number. The Chargers held the ball for 22:29 and only Tennessee had it for less. Two of eight on third down, and a playoff figure that now reads 21%.
Rating 49 | Make playoffs 29% | Win Super Bowl 0.3% | Week 1 yards 394 |
Up five, matching Baltimore for the biggest climb of the week. Beating Dallas is worth a great deal when you are starting from 24th after a 4-13 season. A minus 58 differential is not undone in a week, but the direction is right.
Week 1 in one number. The Giants converted nine of eleven third downs, 82%, the best rate of Week 1, and scored on all four red-zone trips. Jaxson Dart went 23 of 29 for 230 yards and three touchdowns.
Rating 49 | Make playoffs 11% | Win Super Bowl 0.1% | Week 1 yards 244 |
Down one, and now carrying the same rating of 49 as the team that just beat them, which will not be read warmly in Texas. An 11% playoff figure is among the five lowest here.
Week 1 in one number. Dallas converted eight of eleven third downs and scored on all three red-zone trips, and lost by eight. They ran 52 plays to the Giants’ 68 and held the ball for 23:20.
Rating 47 | Make playoffs 36% | Win Super Bowl 0.5% | Week 1 yards 282 |
Down one after a competitive defeat in Cincinnati. Their 36% playoff figure is the highest of any team ranked outside the top twenty, which says more about the state of the NFC South than about Tampa Bay.
Week 1 in one number. Baker Mayfield completed 23 of 28, 82%, for 216 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. Tampa Bay still lost the ball four times, more than any other team in Week 1.
Rating 45 | Make playoffs 31% | Win Super Bowl 0.3% | Week 1 yards 238 |
No movement. Thirteen points in Pittsburgh, with only four teams scoring fewer all week. Last season’s 8-9 came with a minus 48 differential, so a rating of 45 is not new information.
Week 1 in one number. Atlanta did not reach the red zone once. Not a single attempt in sixty minutes. Two of twelve on third down, four sacks taken, two interceptions thrown.
Rating 44 | Make playoffs 12% | Win Super Bowl 0.1% | Week 1 yards 251 |
Down two after losing by 18 at home. The oddity here is that Indianapolis posted a plus 54 differential in 2025 while finishing 8-9, which is the signature of a team better than its record. The model has never bought it, and a 12% playoff figure says it still does not.
Week 1 in one number. Indianapolis scored on all three red-zone trips and Jonathan Taylor ran for 98 yards and two touchdowns. None of it mattered, because Baltimore gained 506 yards.
Rating 44 | Make playoffs 10% | Win Super Bowl 0.1% | Week 1 yards 295 |
Down one. Losing by two in Philadelphia is the best two points Washington will spend all season, and it cost them a single place. Close defeats still count as defeats.
Week 1 in one number. Washington scored on all three red-zone trips, did not turn the ball over once, and held it for 33:20. They lost by two.
Long way back, 25 to 32
Rating 42 | Make playoffs 34% | Win Super Bowl 0.3% | Week 1 yards 469 |
No movement, having lost by a point on the road to a team ranked tenth. Scoring 30 in Detroit is the sort of afternoon that usually earns a rise. Thirty-four percent to reach the playoffs is generous without being absurd.
Week 1 in one number. Tyler Shough threw 56 passes, more than any other quarterback in Week 1, for 410 yards and three touchdowns. New Orleans ran 86 plays, also the most. They lost by one, and Chris Olave caught ten for 182.
Rating 38 | Make playoffs 8% | Win Super Bowl 0.0% | Week 1 yards 393 |
Up two. Three wins in the whole of last season, and one already this year, on the road, by twelve. The rating still reads 38 because a minus 133 differential takes rather more than one good afternoon to shift.
Week 1 in one number. Arizona held the ball for 37:31 and did not turn it over once. Jacoby Brissett completed 27 of 37, and Trey McBride caught nine for 95.
Rating 34 | Make playoffs 2% | Win Super Bowl 0.0% | Week 1 yards 259 |
Down one. Losing by 14 in Las Vegas to a team that won three games last season is a poor way to start. A 2% playoff figure is the lowest of anyone outside the bottom four of this table.
Week 1 in one number. Miami took five sacks and converted two of ten third downs. Malik Willis threw 27 times without a touchdown, and their only rushing score came from the quarterback.
Rating 30 | Make playoffs 6% | Win Super Bowl 0.1% | Week 1 yards 290 |
Up two after winning by 14, which is modest reward for a comfortable afternoon. That is what a minus 191 differential does to a rating: one result cannot outweigh a season that bad.
Week 1 in one number. Kirk Cousins threw three touchdowns on 160 passing yards. Ashton Jeanty touched the ball 29 times for 147 yards and two scores, and the Raiders hit the quarterback eleven times.
Rating 29 | Make playoffs 8% | Win Super Bowl 0.0% | Week 1 yards 478 |
Down two. Conceding 59 at home was the worst defensive afternoon of the week by a distance. Carolina scored 37 of their own, which is the only reason the fall was not steeper.
Week 1 in one number. Carolina gained 478 yards, went four for four in the red zone, and lost by 22. Bryce Young threw for 361 and three touchdowns. Three turnovers and eleven penalties account for the difference.
Rating 26 | Make playoffs 4% | Win Super Bowl 0.0% | Week 1 yards 367 |
Up one. A 13-point win in Tennessee is the reward for playing the only team rated below them. A minus 203 differential last season means the prior is doing nearly all of the work at this end of the table.
Week 1 in one number. The Jets held the ball for 38:46, more than any team in Week 1, and ran it 39 times. They also converted two of twelve third downs, and Geno Smith threw 24 times with no touchdowns and no interceptions.
Rating 19 | Make playoffs 2% | Win Super Bowl 0.0% | Week 1 yards 272 |
Down two. Ten points in Jacksonville, beaten by 24, and a rating of 19. There is no reading of Week 1 that helps Cleveland.
Week 1 in one number. One third down converted out of eight. Nothing from either red-zone trip. Five sacks taken and eleven penalties committed.
Rating 4 | Make playoffs 0% | Win Super Bowl 0.0% | Week 1 yards 195 |
No movement, because there is nowhere left to go. A rating of 4 out of 100, the only 0% in the playoff column, and a home defeat by the team directly above them.
Week 1 in one number. Tennessee held the ball for 21:14, the least of any team in Week 1, and ran it just 14 times. Cam Ward threw 32 times for 140 yards.
How the rankings are calculated
The Squawka Rating is our model’s measure of team strength on a 0 to 100 scale. It begins from a view of each roster and then moves on results, weighing the margin and the strength of the opponent rather than the record alone. The playoff and Super Bowl probabilities come from simulating the remaining season many thousands of times. Tens of thousands, in fact.
These are the same figures you will find on all 32 team pages and on the NFL hub, so nothing on this site contradicts anything else on it. The Signal methodology sets out the model in full.
The table is rebuilt every Tuesday, once the Monday night game has finished the week. That timing matters. Refreshing before the full slate is in produces movement based on an incomplete week, so we wait.
For how the seeding works from here, see our NFL playoff predictions. Weekly game-by-game calls sit on the NFL picks page, and season-long markets are on the NFL futures page. All times here are Eastern. A 1:00pm ET Sunday game is 10:00am in Vancouver and 2:00pm in Halifax.
Our NFL power rankings were updated on 16 September 2026, after every Week 1 game. Buffalo lead on a Squawka Rating of 99, with Seattle second on 91 and Jacksonville third on 86. Tennessee sit 32nd on 4. The table is rebuilt every Tuesday once the Monday night game has finished.
Buffalo, Seattle, Jacksonville, Denver and Baltimore make up the top five. Buffalo have not moved since the preseason set. Baltimore climbed five places after winning 41-23 in Indianapolis, and Jacksonville rose four after beating Cleveland by 24.
Buffalo carry the highest Super Bowl probability in our model at 20.4%, well clear of Seattle on 13.3%. Philadelphia lead the NFC field on 8.6%, with Jacksonville on 7.8% and Detroit on 7.0%. These are model probabilities, not sportsbook prices. They move as results come in.
Ours are rebuilt every Tuesday morning, after the Monday night game completes the week. That gives a full set of results before anything moves. Each edition explains what changed and why, so the arrows reflect a real week rather than a mid-week guess.
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