The Squawka Signal model makes the Carolina Hurricanes the 13.5% favorites for the 2026-27 Stanley Cup. Below is the full title race with a twist you won’t find on a sportsbook: our model’s probability for every team sits next to the de-vigged prediction market, so you can see exactly where Signal and the money disagree.
NHL Stanley CupStanley Cup Odds: Signal vs Market
1
Carolina Hurricanes13.5%12.0%+1.5▾
Signal and the market agree on the Carolina Hurricanes: 13.5% model vs 12.0% market. Kalshi fair 11.3%, Polymarket fair 12.1% (both de-vigged).
Back the Carolina Hurricanes on Kalshi11.3%2
Colorado Avalanche10.1%9.2%+0.9▾
Signal and the market agree on the Colorado Avalanche: 10.1% model vs 9.2% market. Kalshi fair 8.9%, Polymarket fair 9.2% (both de-vigged).
Back the Colorado Avalanche on Kalshi8.9%3
Tampa Bay Lightning10.1%4.4%+5.7▾
The model is higher on the Tampa Bay Lightning than the market — Signal 10.1% vs a 4.4% market price, an edge of +5.7 pts. Kalshi fair 4.8%, Polymarket fair 4.4% (both de-vigged).
Back the Tampa Bay Lightning on Kalshi4.8%4
Minnesota Wild8.4%7.2%+1.2▾
Signal and the market agree on the Minnesota Wild: 8.4% model vs 7.2% market. Kalshi fair 8.1%, Polymarket fair 7.1% (both de-vigged).
Back the Minnesota Wild on Kalshi8.1%5
Edmonton Oilers7.1%11.0%-3.9▾
The market is higher on the Edmonton Oilers than the model — a 11.0% market price vs Signal’s 7.1% (-3.9 pts). Kalshi fair 8.1%, Polymarket fair 11.1% (both de-vigged).
Back the Edmonton Oilers on Kalshi8.1%6
Vegas Golden Knights5.6%7.2%-1.6▾
The market is higher on the Vegas Golden Knights than the model — a 7.2% market price vs Signal’s 5.6% (-1.6 pts). Kalshi fair 5.6%, Polymarket fair 7.3% (both de-vigged).
Back the Vegas Golden Knights on Kalshi5.6%7
Dallas Stars5.1%5.3%-0.2▾
Signal and the market agree on the Dallas Stars: 5.1% model vs 5.3% market. Kalshi fair 4.8%, Polymarket fair 5.3% (both de-vigged).
Back the Dallas Stars on Kalshi4.8%8
Montreal Canadiens5.0%4.7%+0.3▾
Signal and the market agree on the Montreal Canadiens: 5.0% model vs 4.7% market. Kalshi fair 4.0%, Polymarket fair 4.7% (both de-vigged).
Back the Montreal Canadiens on Kalshi4.0%9
Boston Bruins4.7%2.9%+1.8▾
The model is higher on the Boston Bruins than the market — Signal 4.7% vs a 2.9% market price, an edge of +1.8 pts. Kalshi fair 3.2%, Polymarket fair 2.9% (both de-vigged).
Back the Boston Bruins on Kalshi3.2%10
Ottawa Senators3.9%3.0%+0.9▾
Signal and the market agree on the Ottawa Senators: 3.9% model vs 3.0% market. Kalshi fair 2.4%, Polymarket fair 3.0% (both de-vigged).
Back the Ottawa Senators on Kalshi2.4%11
New Jersey Devils3.2%6.6%-3.4▾
The market is higher on the New Jersey Devils than the model — a 6.6% market price vs Signal’s 3.2% (-3.4 pts). Kalshi fair 6.5%, Polymarket fair 6.6% (both de-vigged).
Back the New Jersey Devils on Kalshi6.5%12
Washington Capitals2.8%3.4%-0.6▾
Signal and the market agree on the Washington Capitals: 2.8% model vs 3.4% market. Kalshi fair 3.2%, Polymarket fair 3.4% (both de-vigged).
Back the Washington Capitals on Kalshi3.2%“Signal” is the Squawka model’s win probability from a season Monte-Carlo; “Market” is the de-vigged consensus of Kalshi and Polymarket, volume-weighted. Edge = Signal − market. See the full board in our NHL Power Rankings and how the model works. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Want the reasoning behind the numbers? The NHL Power Rankings show every team’s Elo and projected points, and the Signal methodology explains how the model is built and calibrated against the market.