Our Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle prediction lands on Both Teams to Score, with both clubs hosting the hard work behind them and the City Ground stage set for an open Sunday afternoon.
Kick-off is Sunday, May 10 at 9:00 AM ET / 8:00 AM CT / 6:00 AM PT, and the table tells you everything you need about the stakes. Forest sit 16th on 42 points, all-but safe from relegation with three games left. Meanwhile, Newcastle are 13th on 45, similarly clear of trouble. So neither side is chasing Europe, and neither is staring down the drop.
That changes the texture of the afternoon. With nothing structural at stake, this becomes a match about home pride, individual performances, and a chance for the Tricky Trees to close out their City Ground campaign with something worth remembering. However, the injury picture also matters. Forest carry a heavy doubt list, while Newcastle are without Tino Livramento entirely and Fabian Schär is a 50/50. Despite the absentees, both squads have enough to go at each other.
For more matchday context, see our Premier League hub and the live Premier League standings.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -175 @ bet365 (64%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Forest have scored in seven of their last eight league games. Newcastle put three past Brighton last weekend and have conceded in eight of their last 10. |
| Match Result: Nottingham Forest | +160 @ bet365 (38%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | The home and away prices are level, but Forest have the better recent home form. Newcastle have lost four of their last six on the road. |
| Anytime Goalscorer: Yoane Wissa | +175 @ bet365 (36%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Wissa has 3.39 xG from just 473 minutes since his summer move — a per-90 finishing rate that comfortably outstrips the rest of the Newcastle frontline. |
| Total Goals: Over 2.5 | -138 @ bet365 (58%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Three or more goals have landed in four of Newcastle’s last five and three of Forest’s last five. |
| Correct Score: 2-1 Forest | +1000 @ bet365 (9%) | ⭐⭐ | Lines up neatly with the BTTS Yes lean and a Forest home edge against a side likely to be missing two of their first-choice back four. |
The clean play here is BTTS Yes, with a Forest match-winner ticket as the secondary lean. Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
Note for US readers: Polymarket is now live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange, available in most states except Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. New US users can claim a 100% deposit match up to $50 with code ACQUIRE05. Market prices shown are real-money figures from the Polymarket platform. Kalshi, also CFTC-regulated, trades in all 50 states.
Kalshi and Polymarket price this close to a coin flip with a slight visitor lean. Forest’s depleted squad has tempered the home market; the draw still attracts trading volume. Goals markets sit at the line — neither side has been tight defensively recently. Use the widget below to see how the two venues compare; a wide gap between Kalshi and Polymarket is the signal worth watching.
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Season Form & Standings
Although the Magpies have the cushion, Forest carry the better recent run. In fact, the three-point gap between them is closer than the league positions suggest.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 13 | 35 | 13 | 6 | 16 | 49 | 51 | -2 | 45 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16 | 35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 42 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest): The Forest captain has carried the attack for the season — 13 goals and four assists in 35 league games, with an xG of 7.59 well below his actual return. A 75% doubt going in, so weight the tip if he is named.
- Igor Jesus (Nottingham Forest): Six goals and four assists from 2,057 minutes, with an underlying xG of 8.51 hinting that the goal tally undersells him. The most likely Forest scorer if Gibbs-White doesn’t start.
- Yoane Wissa (Newcastle United): Just 473 league minutes since arriving in the summer, but already one goal and 3.39 xG. The per-90 finishing rate is the best in the Newcastle squad and the price reflects it.
- Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United): Six goals, two assists, 32 successful dribbles. The most direct of the Magpies’ attackers and the obvious threat at +225 in the goalscorer market.
Head-to-Head
Newcastle have dominated this fixture in recent seasons, winning six of the last seven meetings in all competitions. However, Forest’s lone bright spot was a 3-1 away win at St. James’ Park in December 2023.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2025 | Newcastle 2-0 Forest | Premier League |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Newcastle 4-3 Forest | Premier League |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Forest 1-3 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Forest 2-3 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2023 | Newcastle 1-3 Forest | Premier League |
Recent Form
Nottingham Forest — W D W W L
- March 22, 2026: 3-0 win at Tottenham (W, away)
- April 12, 2026: 1-1 vs Aston Villa (D, home)
- April 19, 2026: 4-1 vs Burnley (W, home)
- April 24, 2026: 5-0 at Sunderland (W, away)
- May 4, 2026: 1-3 at Chelsea (L, away)
Three wins in five with two of them by four-goal margins is no small thing. Although the Chelsea defeat aside, Forest have looked sharp in front of goal. In fact, they racked up 13 goals across the four games before Stamford Bridge.
Newcastle United — L L L L W
- March 22, 2026: 1-2 vs Sunderland (L, home)
- April 12, 2026: 1-2 at Crystal Palace (L, away)
- April 18, 2026: 1-2 vs Bournemouth (L, home)
- April 25, 2026: 0-1 at Arsenal (L, away)
- May 2, 2026: 3-1 vs Brighton (W, home)
Four straight defeats came before the Brighton response. Although the 3-1 win at St. James’ Park last weekend snapped the slide, Newcastle’s road form has been thin. Meanwhile, the away record reads four losses in their last six on the road. So the Magpies will need their finishers to fire to take anything from the City Ground.
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Prediction
Two safe sides, two depleted squads, and a fixture that should open up. Forest’s home record carries the edge here. In fact, with Newcastle missing Livramento and possibly Schär, the level home and away prices at +160 look generous on the Tricky Trees.
However, the cleaner ticket remains Both Teams to Score. Both attacks are scoring freely, and both backlines have leaks. For another safety-bench fixture worth a look, see our Burnley vs Aston Villa preview. Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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