Every NFL pick published on this page comes with three things attached: the reasoning, the line it was made at, and, once the season is underway, a running record of how the calls have gone. That last one matters most. The picks industry mostly hides its results, and an entire website exists just to track what the experts got wrong. We would rather save it the work. Our NFL picks are free, written for Canadian bettors against prices actually available here, and never sold as anything more certain than they are. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC).
This week’s NFL picks
The 2026 season kicks off on Wednesday 9 September. Weekly picks begin with the Week 1 slate: every game called straight up and against the spread, with best bets flagged and the reasoning written out. Until then, this page covers how the picks are made and how to use them. Most bettors skip that part. They should not.
How we make our NFL picks
No black box, no hunches dressed up as science. Each week’s picks come from the same repeatable process: the opening line versus where the market has moved it, injury reports as they firm up through Wednesday and Friday, situational spots like short weeks and travel, and the key numbers of 3 and 7 that decide more NFL spread bets than any statistic. When a line sits on the wrong side of a key number, that is usually the pick talking, not the team.
Two things we do not do. We do not pick every game with equal conviction, because thirteen opinions of identical confidence are twelve too many. And we do not call anything a lock, because nothing is, and copy that pretends otherwise is selling you something.
Straight up or against the spread
Picks come in two currencies and it pays to know which one you are reading. A straight up pick answers one question: who wins the game. It is what office pools and most casual conversations run on. An against the spread pick answers a harder question: who beats the number the sportsbook set. A team can win the game and lose you the bet, and a 14-point underdog that loses by 10 was the right call. Our weekly picks give both, side by side, because they serve different bets. The mechanics live in our point spread guide if the second currency is new to you.
Our record, in the open
From Week 1, every pick gets logged and the running results published here: straight up, against the spread, and best bets, each tracked separately against the closing line. Cold streaks will show. That is the feature working, because a picks page that never shows one is editing its history.
Honest benchmark, so the numbers mean something when they arrive: hitting 55 percent against the spread over a full season is genuinely strong, and anyone advertising much better than that over any meaningful sample deserves your scepticism, not your bankroll.
How to use NFL picks without outsourcing your judgment
A pick is a starting argument, not an instruction. The ones worth following tell you why, so you can disagree.
Check the price, not just the side. Picks on this page reference the line at time of writing, and lines move. If we liked a team at +3.5 and your book now shows +2.5, half the reason for the pick is gone. That check matters more in Canada than most places: Ontario and Alberta bettors can shop several books for the best number, while a PlayNow or Mise-o-jeu+ bettor gets one price, so the pick’s value depends entirely on what that platform is quoting. The same call can be a good bet in Barrie and a pass in Burnaby. Our NFL betting in Canada guide maps which platform each province allows.
And size every bet like the pick might be wrong, because some of them will be. Our bankroll management guide is the arithmetic behind that sentence.
What we publish each week
Game-by-game calls for the full slate, straight up and against the spread, with score projections. Best bets too: the two or three plays each week where the line and our read disagree most. And parlays, occasionally. Correlated pricing justifies one less often than the promotional push suggests. Player prop picks will live with the dedicated props coverage rather than here.
Survivor pools: one pick, higher stakes
Survivor pools ask for one straight up winner a week, no spreads, with elimination for a single miss. The strategy is its own discipline: burning a heavy favourite early can cost you the team you need in Week 11, so future value matters as much as this week’s matchup. In season, our weekly picks flag a survivor-safe selection alongside the main slate.
NFL picks FAQ
Yes, all of them. No paywall, no premium tier, no picks sold by text message. The business model is the same as the rest of the site: if you use a sportsbook link here, we may earn a commission; the picks themselves cost nothing.
Beating the sportsbook’s margin rather than just winning the game. A -6.5 favourite must win by 7 or more; a +6.5 underdog covers by winning outright or losing by 6 or fewer.
Anyone publishing honestly will tell you the same thing: 52.4 percent against the spread is break-even at standard -110 pricing, 55 percent over a season is strong, and 60 percent sustained is essentially unheard of. Judge any picks source, including this one, against those numbers.
The picks travel; the prices do not. A side we like is the same side on PlayNow or Mise-o-jeu+, but always check the platform’s own line before betting, because it can differ meaningfully from the one referenced in the pick.
Through the week as lines and injury reports settle once the season is underway. We will confirm the exact publishing rhythm ahead of Week 1.
The Squawka betting team, with every pick attributed and every record published. No guest touts, no syndicated filler.
19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC) | Please play responsibly | Picks are opinions, not guarantees; odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON); your province’s helpline is on our gambling awareness page.