Every NFL pick published on this page comes with three things attached: the reasoning, the line it was made at, and, once the season is underway, a running record of how the calls have gone. That last one matters most. The picks industry mostly hides its results, and an entire website exists just to track what the experts got wrong. We would rather save it the work. Our NFL picks are free, written for Canadian bettors against prices actually available here, and never sold as anything more certain than they are. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC).
Week 8 NFL Picks
| Date | Match | Signal pick | Win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 29 |  CAR@GB  | GB -5.9 | 71% |
| Sun Nov 1 |  IND@JAC  | JAC -9.1 | 80% |
| Sun Nov 1 |  TEN@CIN  | CIN -13.8 | 89% |
| Sun Nov 1 |  CLE@PIT  | PIT -7.8 | 77% |
| Sun Nov 1 |  MIN@DET  | MIN -1.7 | 57% |
| Sun Nov 1 |  ATL@TB  | TB -0.9 | 54% |
| Sun Nov 1 |  ARI@DAL  | DAL -6.3 | 72% |
| Sun Nov 1 |  LV@NYJ  | LV -0.8 | 53% |
| Sun Nov 1 |  BAL@BUF  | BUF -7.2 | 75% |
| Sun Nov 1 |  LAC@LA  | LA -7.4 | 75% |
| Sun Nov 1 |  NE@MIA  | NE -8.0 | 77% |
| Sun Nov 1 |  KC@DEN  | DEN -3.7 | 64% |
| Sun Nov 1 |  PHI@WAS  | PHI -1.5 | 56% |
| Mon Nov 2 |  CHI@SEA  | SEA -3.3 | 62% |
Straight-up pick, projected line and win probability from the Squawka Signal model — a model read, not a betting tip. Tap a win probability to back the game at bet365. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC). Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON). Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: bet365. Updated as the season plays out. How the model works.
The 2026 season kicks off on Wednesday 9 September. Weekly picks begin with the Week 1 slate: every game called straight up and against the spread, with best bets flagged and the reasoning written out. Until then, this page covers how the picks are made and how to use them. Most bettors skip that part. They should not.
The calls worth arguing with
A win probability is a number, not an argument. These are the five games on this week’s board where the model sits closest to a coin flip, and what is driving each one. If you disagree with the reasoning, disagree with the pick; that is what it is for.
Denver at San Francisco, San Francisco by 0.3 (51%). The closest call of the week and the only game where the model takes the lower-ranked side. Denver are third in our NFL power rankings and San Francisco sixth, and the model still leans San Francisco by three-tenths of a point. Home advantage in the NFL is generally reckoned at two to three points, so strip it out and this says Denver are the better team by a clear margin. San Francisco are 3-0 with a points differential of plus 48, the best in football; Denver are 2-1 at minus 10. The records and the ratings are telling opposite stories, which is exactly why the number sits where it does.
Rams at Philadelphia, Philadelphia by 0.5 (52%). Philadelphia fell six places this week to twelfth, the steepest drop on the board, after losing 27-7 in Chicago with seven points, three turnovers, 22 per cent on third down and a team passer rating of 45.8. The Rams sit seventh at 1-2. The model still leans Philadelphia at home by half a point, which is home advantage doing all the work. Philadelphia’s minus 14 differential is the worst of any division leader in either conference.
Indianapolis at Washington, Indianapolis by 0.6 (52%). The 9:30am ET kick-off, and two teams the underlying numbers do not rate. Indianapolis are 22nd and Washington 25th, both 1-2. Indianapolis beat Houston 19-17 having turned the ball over three times, on 35:13 of possession. Washington beat Seattle 33-31 while converting 23 per cent on third down, rescued by two interceptions and two forced fumbles. Both won games they had no business winning, and the model has priced that as a coin flip rather than a trend.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati, Jacksonville by 1.0 (54%). Nine places separate them, Jacksonville fifth and Cincinnati fourteenth, and the model gives the road team a single point. Jacksonville have conceded 36 points all season, the fewest in the league, and carry the best differential in the AFC at plus 46. Cincinnati have the best differential in the AFC North at plus 17 and sit ninth in the conference anyway, because all four North teams are 2-1 and the tiebreaks fell against them. Joe Burrow threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns at a 123.9 rating in the defeat at Pittsburgh, so the performance was never the problem.
Atlanta at New Orleans, New Orleans by 1.0 (54%). Monday night, and the division nobody has claimed. Atlanta climbed five places after winning 35-14 at Green Bay with 242 rushing yards. New Orleans dropped four after losing at home to Las Vegas despite scoring four touchdowns on four red-zone trips and converting 60 per cent on third down; they turned the ball over four times and that was the game. Both are 1-2, both chasing a Carolina side that leads the NFC South on the same record.
The rest of the board is more straightforward. Baltimore at home to Tennessee is the most confident call of the week at 88%, and Minnesota at home to Miami is next at 85% after moving seven points this week, from 78%, once the model raised Minnesota eleven places to second.
How we make our NFL picks
No black box, no hunches dressed up as science. Each week’s picks come from the same repeatable process: the opening line versus where the market has moved it, injury reports as they firm up through Wednesday and Friday, situational spots like short weeks and travel, and the key numbers of 3 and 7 that decide more NFL spread bets than any statistic. When a line sits on the wrong side of a key number, that is usually the pick talking, not the team.
Two things we do not do. We do not pick every game with equal conviction, because thirteen opinions of identical confidence are twelve too many. And we do not call anything a lock, because nothing is, and copy that pretends otherwise is selling you something.
Straight up or against the spread
Picks come in two currencies and it pays to know which one you are reading. A straight up pick answers one question: who wins the game. It is what office pools and most casual conversations run on. An against the spread pick answers a harder question: who beats the number the sportsbook set. A team can win the game and lose you the bet, and a 14-point underdog that loses by 10 was the right call. Our weekly picks give both, side by side, because they serve different bets. The mechanics live in our point spread guide if the second currency is new to you.
Our record, in the open
Every pick is logged and the results published here: how many we got right, how far the projected margin sat from the real one, and which calls went worst. Cold streaks will show. That is the feature working, because a picks page that never shows one is editing its history.
Every line in that table can be checked. Each pick is the model’s call as it stood before kickoff, and it is published twice: once on the board here, and once on that game’s own match preview, where it sits alongside the win probability and the projected line. So the record is not a number you have to take on trust. Pick any week, open the individual game pages, and the calls are there with the date they were made.
The worst call so far was CAR at ATL: we had ATL at 64%, and it finished 34-3. Every other call, right and wrong, is in the game-by-game table below.
Week 7, game by game
Week 6, game by game
Week 5, game by game
Week 4, game by game
Week 3, game by game
Week 2, game by game
Week 1, game by game
Honest benchmark, so the numbers mean something as they accumulate: hitting 55 per cent against the spread over a full season is genuinely strong, and anyone advertising much better than that over any meaningful sample deserves your scepticism, not your bankroll. Straight-up hit rates always look higher, because favourites win most weeks, so the two are not comparable.
A weekly record is one window on the season, and three others sit beside it. The NFL playoff picture tracks where these results are actually sending the standings, the futures board carries the season-long prices that weekly calls like these add up to, and the draft order reads the same weekends from the other end of the table.
How to use NFL picks without outsourcing your judgment
A pick is a starting argument, not an instruction. The ones worth following tell you why, so you can disagree.
Check the price, not just the side. Picks on this page reference the line at time of writing, and lines move. If we liked a team at +3.5 and your book now shows +2.5, half the reason for the pick is gone. That check matters more in Canada than most places: Ontario and Alberta bettors can shop several books for the best number, while a PlayNow or Mise-o-jeu+ bettor gets one price, so the pick’s value depends entirely on what that platform is quoting. The same call can be a good bet in Barrie and a pass in Burnaby. Our provincial breakdown maps which platform each province allows.
And size every bet like the pick might be wrong, because some of them will be. Our bankroll management guide is the arithmetic behind that sentence.
What we publish each week
Game-by-game calls for the full slate, straight up and against the spread, with score projections. Best bets too: the two or three plays each week where the line and our read disagree most. And parlays, occasionally. Correlated pricing justifies one less often than the promotional push suggests. Player prop picks live with our dedicated NFL player props coverage rather than here. Every call for the coming week is also written up in one place, with the projected margin and win probability behind each one, in our NFL Week 5 predictions. If you follow the game for the Canadian angle, our Canadians in the NFL tracker carries every Canadian on an NFL roster with their week-by-week lines.
Survivor pools: one pick, higher stakes
Survivor pools ask for one straight up winner a week, no spreads, with elimination for a single miss. The strategy is its own discipline: burning a heavy favourite early can cost you the team you need in Week 11, so future value matters as much as this week’s matchup. In season, our weekly picks flag a survivor-safe selection alongside the main slate.
Week 4 survivor pick: Baltimore, at home to Tennessee. The highest number on the board at 88%, against the team our model rates 32nd and last, 0-3 and coming off a game in which they scored seven points. Baltimore are eleventh in our power rankings, so you are not burning a premium side to take it. Minnesota at 85% is the alternative and it would cost you a team the model now rates second in the league. That is the whole discipline in one choice: take the cheapest safe win available, not the safest one.
NFL picks FAQ
Yes, all of them. No paywall, no premium tier, no picks sold by text message. The business model is the same as the rest of the site: if you use a sportsbook link here, we may earn a commission; the picks themselves cost nothing.
Beating the sportsbook’s margin rather than just winning the game. A -6.5 favourite must win by 7 or more; a +6.5 underdog covers by winning outright or losing by 6 or fewer.
Anyone publishing honestly will tell you the same thing: 52.4 percent against the spread is break-even at standard -110 pricing, 55 percent over a season is strong, and 60 percent sustained is essentially unheard of. Judge any picks source, including this one, against those numbers.
The picks travel; the prices do not. A side we like is the same side on PlayNow or Mise-o-jeu+, but always check the platform’s own line before betting, because it can differ meaningfully from the one referenced in the pick.
Through the week as lines and injury reports settle, with the full slate finalized before Sunday’s early window. Prime-time games are updated closer to kickoff when late news warrants it.
The Squawka betting team, with every pick attributed and every record published. No guest touts, no syndicated filler.
19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC) | Please play responsibly | Picks are opinions, not guarantees; odds referenced at time of writing and subject to change | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON); your province’s helpline is on our gambling awareness page.