Miami allows a 116.8 opponent passer rating and has recorded six sacks in six games. Both are the worst figures in the NFL. Our Patriots vs Dolphins prediction sends Drake Maye at the Dolphins.
The New England Patriots are 4-3 and have thrown for 1,771 yards. The Miami Dolphins are 1-5 and let opponents convert 52.1% of third downs, the second-worst rate in the league.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
New England PatriotsWin prob77%
Miami DolphinsWin prob23%Squawka Signal is our model’s read, updated after every result — not betting advice. How the NFL Signal works. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC). Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON). Full T&Cs & geo-restrictions apply: bet365.
Patriots vs Dolphins: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Patriots vs Dolphins: 2026 form so far
A 4-3 team against a 1-5 team whose defence does not get off the field. Read the table across rather than down: every figure sits next to what has to stop it.
Patriots attack against the Dolphins defence
| Per game | Patriots offence | Dolphins allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 253.0 | 227.5 |
| Rushing yards | 122.0 | 110.2 |
| Yards per carry | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Passer rating | 96.2 | 116.8 |
| Touchdowns | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 39.5% | 52.1% |
| Red-zone conversion | 55.0% | 65.4% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.9 | 1.0 |
Dolphins attack against the Patriots defence
| Per game | Dolphins offence | Patriots allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 162.0 | 220.4 |
| Rushing yards | 131.5 | 95.3 |
| Yards per carry | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Passer rating | 77.1 | 94.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Third-down conversion | 41.3% | 36.6% |
| Red-zone conversion | 56.2% | 54.5% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.7 | 2.4 |
Miami has six sacks in six games. No team in the NFL has fewer, and the next-lowest figure is eight.
Patriots vs Dolphins quarterback matchup
Drake Maye has 13 touchdown passes to eight interceptions at 96.4 and threw for 321 yards last week. Malik Willis has four to four at 77.1.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | Drake Maye | 24/31, 321 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 117.8 rtg | 141/214, 1784 yds, 13 TD, 8 INT, 96.4 rtg (7 games) |
| Dolphins | Malik Willis | 14/21, 208 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 130.7 rtg | 87/151, 1057 yds, 4 TD, 4 INT, 77.1 rtg (6 games) |
Patriots vs Dolphins injury report and team news
Miami allows a 116.8 opponent passer rating, the worst figure in the NFL.
Miami has recorded six sacks in six games, fewer than any team in the league.
Miami lets opponents convert 52.1% on third down, second only to Dallas.
New England PatriotsMiami DolphinsA defence that cannot get off the field
A 116.8 opponent rating, six sacks in six games and 52.1% allowed on third down. Miami is worst, worst and second-worst in the NFL on those three.
New England is well placed to use it. Drake Maye has 1,784 passing yards and 13 touchdowns, and threw for 321 last week.
Miami’s eight interceptions thrown and 11 touchdowns scored are the other half of a 1-5 season. The one bright spot is a run game at 4.61 a carry.
Players to watch
- Drake Maye (NE, QB): 1,784 yards and 13 scores from seven games.
- Hunter Henry (NE, TE): A steady outlet for an attack with 160 points.
- Malik Willis (MIA, QB): Four touchdown passes at a 77.1 rating.
- Ollie Gordon II (MIA, RB): Fronts the one Miami phase that works, at 4.61 a carry.
How to watch Patriots vs Dolphins in Canada
Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, November 1 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Which Sunday afternoon game CTV shows depends on where you are watching, so check locally. RDS has the French call. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Patriots vs Dolphins |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, November 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 PM ET / 3:25 PM CT / 1:25 PM PT |
| Venue | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| TV | CTV (regional) / TSN / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN (NFL Game Pass) |
| Week | Week 8, 2026 NFL season |
Patriots vs Dolphins prediction and score projection
Our Patriots vs Dolphins prediction is New England by 26-17. Miami cannot pressure a quarterback and cannot get off the field, which is a bad combination against the better passing game.
Signal’s live read on this game updates through the week.
Every Week 8 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Panthers @ Packers | Packers 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Cardinals @ Cowboys | Cowboys 27-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Falcons @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Ravens @ Bills | Bills 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Browns @ Steelers | Steelers 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Colts @ Jaguars | Jaguars 27-16 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Raiders @ Jets | Raiders 23-20 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Vikings @ Lions | Vikings 24-21 | Read |
| Sun 2:00 PM | Titans @ Bengals | Bengals 30-13 | Read |
| Sun 5:05 PM | Chargers @ Rams | Rams 26-16 | Read |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Chiefs @ Broncos | Chiefs 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 5:25 PM | Patriots @ Dolphins | Patriots 26-17 | You are here |
| Sun 9:20 PM | Eagles @ Commanders | Eagles 20-17 | Read |
| Mon 9:15 PM | Bears @ Seahawks | Seahawks 24-21 | Read |
The rest of the week is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every Week 8 game the same way. Both these teams are chasing the AFC Championship odds, and the NFC Championship odds move on the same page as the season develops.
Patriots vs Dolphins FAQ
New England. Our Signal model has the Patriots as clear favourites and the live number is in the Signal card on this page. New England is 4-3 at +17; Miami is 1-5 at -59.
4:25 PM ET on Sunday, November 1, which is 3:25 PM CT and 1:25 PM PT, at Hard Rock Stadium.
CTV’s Sunday afternoon game is a regional pick, so check your local listings. RDS has the French call. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass.
Six in six games, fewer than any team in the NFL.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change