Tunisia opened the 2026 World Cup with a 5-1 defeat to Sweden at the Estadio BBVA. With two group matches still to play, Tunisia will need a result in their next fixture to keep their tournament path open.
Tunisia to win World Cup 2026 odds centre on whether Tunisia can turn a favourable tournament path into a genuine run at the trophy. The Tunisia profile below tracks the group-stage picture, futures market context and the squad factors that matter most before the knockout rounds, with broader tournament details available via the official FIFA World Cup hub.
Tunisia have a deep World Cup history relative to the contender band, but recent cycles have not produced the breakthroughs the market would price them above their current odds for.
Group F and the route through the knockouts are mapped on the 2026 World Cup schedule page, with full bracket detail at FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup site.
Tunisia’s World Cup 2026 path
| Round | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD1 | 2026-06-15 | Sweden | L 5-1 |
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Traders price them at 35% to qualify from Group F, and 5% to win it.
Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices Tunisia’s tournament arc as:
| Country | Group Exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia | 67% | 26% | 16% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 1% |
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Tunisia to win World Cup 2026 odds
Tunisia have been quoted out at 500/1 to become the first ever African country to lift the World Cup trophy. While they aren’t expected to go deep into this summer’s tournament, they have shown in recent years that they are fully capable of getting results: they beat holders France in the group stages at Qatar 2022 and held Brazil to a 1-1 draw back in November.
However, their initial focus will be on qualifying from a tough group as they bid to reach the knockout stages for the first time in their history.
Tunisia odds to win Group F
Tunisia arrive as the long-odds outsiders of Group F, drawn against Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden. The market does not price them topping the group, but the expanded knockout format keeps qualification in play.
The Polymarket market in the widget below has Tunisia priced as clear underdogs. The realistic ceiling is a third-place finish and a path through to the Round of 32 via one of the third-place qualification spots.
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Tunisia stage of elimination odds
Bookmakers are yet to release Tunisia’s complete stage-of-elimination odds for the 2026 World Cup, but we’ll update this section as soon as markets become available.
In the meantime, there are odds on the stages that the Eagles of Carthage could reach in North America. Tunisia are a touch over even-money at 21/20 to qualify from Group F, 14/1 to reach the quarter-finals, 40/1 to make it through to the semi-finals, they have odds of 300/1 to reach the final, and are priced at 500/1 to win the tournament.
| Market | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| To be knocked out in the group stage | -150 |
| To qualify from the group | +210 |
Tunisia World Cup top goalscorer odds
Tunisia scored 22 goals without reply en route to winning their World Cup qualifying group. Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane was their top scorer in qualifying with four goals, Elias Saad found the back of the net three times, while Hazem Mastouri, Youssef Msakni, and Ferjani Sassi all scored two apiece.
At the time of writing, no Tunisia players have been priced up in the top goalscorer betting at the 2026 World Cup, which is led by Kylian Mbappe (France), Harry Kane (England), and Lionel Messi (Argentina).
You can find full World Cup top goalscorer odds here
Tunisia at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
Tunisia are in Group F alongside Netherlands, Japan and Sweden. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
Tunisia play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Sami Trabelsi is Tunisian and took charge in 2024 in his second spell at the helm.
Tunisia’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +25000 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 0.5%. Tunisia sit in the outsider tier, aligned with African sides yet to escape the World Cup group stage. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
Tunisia have never advanced past the group stage in six previous World Cups (1978, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2018, 2022) — the worst active record among regular qualifiers. The expanded 48-team format gives them their best chance in decades, though the Group F draw with the Netherlands, Japan and Sweden is demanding.