Qatar drew 1-1 with Switzerland at the Levi’s Stadium in their 2026 World Cup opener. The point keeps options open with two group games still to play.
Qatar to win World Cup 2026 odds centre on whether Qatar can turn a favourable tournament path into a genuine run at the trophy. The Qatar profile below tracks the group-stage picture, futures market context and the squad factors that matter most before the knockout rounds, with broader tournament details available via the official FIFA World Cup hub.
Qatar have a deep World Cup history relative to the contender band, but recent cycles have not produced the breakthroughs the market would price them above their current odds for.
Group B and the route through the knockouts are mapped on the 2026 World Cup schedule page, with full bracket detail at FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup site.
Qatar’s World Cup 2026 path
| Round | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD1 | 2026-06-13 | Switzerland | D 1-1 |
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Traders price them at 20% to qualify from Group B, and 1% to win it.
Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices Qatar’s tournament arc as:
| Country | Group Exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar | 81% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Qatar to win World Cup 2026 odds
Qatar are massive outsiders to win the World Cup, at 1000/1. While they are by no means have the worst odds, it goes some way to show just how little Qatar are favoured. They’ve got an implied probability of just 0.1%. You can understand it too. Qatar only made the World Cup in 2022 because they qualified as hosts. And they failed to win a single game. Even though Qatar qualified on merit this time around, nobody expects any shocks from the Maroon One.
Qatar odds to win Group B
Qatar arrive as the long-odds outsiders of Group B, drawn against Switzerland, Canada, and Bosnia-Herzegovina. The market does not price them topping the group, but the expanded knockout format keeps qualification in play.
The Polymarket market in the widget below has Qatar priced as clear underdogs. The realistic ceiling is a third-place finish and a path through to the Round of 32 via one of the third-place qualification spots.
Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
Qatar stage of elimination odds
The odds aren’t even in Qatar’s favour to get out of the group. The Asian nation are odds on to fail to reach the knockout stages, mimicking their run in 2022..
| Group qualification | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +175 |
| No | -250 |
Qatar World Cup top goalscorer odds
There are no Qatar players with odds to win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot just yet. And that’s not much of a surpruse. Qatar only scored one goal at the 2022 World Cup, with Mohammed Muntari netting against Senegal.
f
Qatar at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
Qatar are in Group B alongside Canada, Switzerland and Bosnia-Herzegovina. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
Qatar play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Bartolomé ‘Tintín’ Márquez is Spanish and took charge in 2024, having worked extensively in the Qatari youth system.
Qatar’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +50000 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 0.2%. Qatar sit in the outsider tier, with the back-to-back Asian Cup base lifting the price above debutants. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
Qatar lost all three matches as host at the 2022 World Cup. Winning their first ever World Cup match would be the realistic target in 2026. The Asian Cup double in 2019 and 2023 suggests the squad is stronger than the host-stage performance indicated.