France top the Squawka Signal World Cup 2026 model at 20.3%, with the model’s standout value on Spain.
World Cup 2026 winner odds: the Squawka Signal model vs the market
Updated July 3, 2026. Squawka Signal figures refresh after every match.
The World Cup 2026 winner market has a clear top tier, but the prices don’t all agree, and neither do we. Squawka Signal sets our own model’s win probability for every remaining nation against the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices, so you can see at a glance where the market looks high, low, or about right. The tracker below updates after every match.
The gaps are the point. Reputation and recent history set the market; our model weighs the route a nation actually has to navigate, so a famous name handed a brutal draw can sit below a quieter one on the kinder side of the bracket. The tracker flags each disagreement as value or overpriced, and you can trade any of them straight from a team’s row. For the top-scorer market, see our World Cup 2026 Golden Boot odds.
World Cup 2026 Winner — Squawka Signal
1FranceSquawka Signal predictionSquawka20.3%Market predictionMarket33.8%▼ OVERPRICED
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
2SpainSquawka Signal predictionSquawka19.5%Market predictionMarket12.2%▲ VALUE
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
3ArgentinaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka14.1%Market predictionMarket18.9%▼ SLIGHT LAY
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
4EnglandSquawka Signal predictionSquawka10.8%Market predictionMarket7.2%▲ VALUE
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
5BrazilSquawka Signal predictionSquawka9.7%Market predictionMarket6.2%▲ VALUE
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
6PortugalSquawka Signal predictionSquawka4.3%Market predictionMarket6.9%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
7SwitzerlandSquawka Signal predictionSquawka3.8%Market predictionMarket0.9%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
8BelgiumSquawka Signal predictionSquawka3.5%Market predictionMarket1.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
9MexicoSquawka Signal predictionSquawka2.8%Market predictionMarket4.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
10CanadaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka2.7%Market predictionMarket0.2%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
11ColombiaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka2.3%Market predictionMarket2.5%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
12MoroccoSquawka Signal predictionSquawka2.1%Market predictionMarket2.5%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
13USASquawka Signal predictionSquawka1.6%Market predictionMarket3.0%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
14NorwaySquawka Signal predictionSquawka1.3%Market predictionMarket1.8%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
15ParaguaySquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.3%Market predictionMarket0.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
16AustraliaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.3%Market predictionMarket0.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
17GhanaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.3%Market predictionMarket0.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
18EgyptSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.2%Market predictionMarket0.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
19Cape VerdeSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.0%Market predictionMarket0.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
Squawka Rating = our power rating for each nation; model win % = its title probability across 50,000 simulations of the remaining tournament, updated after every match. The verdict is our read on each price: Value = the market sits below our model, Overpriced = above it. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our Kalshi review and Polymarket review.
How the Squawka Signal model works
Squawka Signal is built on a power rating for every team, drawn from the quality of the chances they create and concede rather than results alone, and adjusted for the strength of the opponent so that beating a weak side counts for less than beating a strong one. Each rating is anchored to a sensible pre-tournament baseline, then moves with every match played.
To turn those ratings into a win probability, we play the rest of the tournament out 50,000 times along the real bracket, with the stronger team more likely to win each tie but upsets always in play. The share of those simulations a team wins is its probability. Because the model knows the actual draw, it captures what a flat ranking cannot: a strong side stuck in a loaded half is rated on its real path, not its reputation.
The verdict on each price follows from there. Where our number sits above the market we flag value, where it sits below we flag overpriced, and where the two broadly agree we call it fair. This is analysis, not a tip, and the market can be right where we are wrong. It is one honest, transparent read, updated after every result.
What the Squawka Signal model is saying
France are the Squawka Signal model’s World Cup 2026 favourites at 20.3%, though the market rates them more highly, at 33.8% to the model’s 20.3%. Spain and Argentina are the model’s next picks.
The sharpest disagreements are where the edge sits: the model sees the most value in Spain, pricing their run deeper than the market does; it reads France as overpriced, with reputation pushing their price above the route. Tap any team to see the gap and its path to the final.
The pattern behind those numbers is consistent: the model backs the nations built to survive a deep bracket, not the biggest names, because the route to the final is worth as much as reputation. Where our win probability sits above a nation’s market price the tracker flags value, below it overpriced, and broadly in line fair. It is analysis, not a tip.
Who will win the World Cup 2026? Our verdict
The model’s pick is France. Spain are the closest challenger. A host nation is well capable of a deep, memorable run. See how the knockouts are laid out in our World Cup 2026 bracket, and our World Cup 2026 final predictions for the showpiece.
Hosts in the market
All three host nations remain in the field, and the market still treats them as outsiders against the European and South American elite — the honest read on where they stand, even with home crowds behind them.
United States
United States have reached the last 16, with home advantage and the biggest crowds of the three co-hosts behind them. The Squawka Signal model puts their title chance at 1.6%, with the model and the market broadly in line (1.6% to 3.0%). It makes them a 42% chance to reach the quarter-finals.
Mexico
Mexico have reached the last 16, having opened the tournament at the Estadio Azteca. The Squawka Signal model puts their title chance at 2.8%, with the model and the market broadly in line (2.8% to 4.1%). It makes them a 37% chance to reach the quarter-finals.
Canada
Canada have reached the last 16. The Squawka Signal model puts their title chance at 2.7%, and the model gives them a shade more than the market’s 0.2%. It makes them a 52% chance to reach the quarter-finals.
How the bracket shapes the market
The knockout draw is where our model and the market most often part company. A side handed a kind route can be worth backing below its reputation; a glamour name drawn into a loaded half can be worth taking on, however strong the squad — because the bracket a team actually has to navigate counts for as much as the badge. That is the basis of the Squawka Signal read above. Full coverage of the draw and schedule sits on the World Cup 2026 hub and the schedule.
Other World Cup 2026 outright markets
Beyond the outright winner, the World Cup carries a full set of outright markets worth a look:
- Outright winner (this page)
- Golden Boot (top goalscorer) — tracked on our Golden Boot odds page
- Golden Ball (best player)
- Group winners (12 separate markets, one per group)
- Stage of elimination (group, R32, R16, QF, SF, runner-up, winner)
World Cup 2026 FAQs
The 2026 FIFA World Cup started on June 11, 2026 with the opening match at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. The 48-team tournament is staged across the United States, Canada and Mexico and concludes with the final on July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium.
The market and our Squawka Signal model do not always agree on the favorite — which is the point of the tracker above. A small group of European and South American heavyweights sit at the top of the market, with England in the next tier and the rest of the contenders behind. Check the tracker for the current order, our model’s win probability for each nation, and where it rates a price as value or overpriced.
The 2026 World Cup expands to 48 teams in 12 groups of four. The top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advance to a 32-team knockout round, which then runs round of 32, round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final.
Under the new 48-team format the winner plays eight matches: three in the group stage, then four knockout rounds through to the final, having entered the expanded round of 32.
US coverage runs across FOX and Telemundo, with streaming on their associated platforms. Check the World Cup 2026 hub for the latest broadcast and streaming details closer to kick-off.
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Odds approximate at time of writing.