Iraq opened the 2026 World Cup with a 4-1 defeat to Norway at the Gillette Stadium. With two group matches still to play, Iraq will need a result in their next fixture to keep their tournament path open.
Iraq to win World Cup 2026 odds centre on whether Iraq can turn a favourable tournament path into a genuine run at the trophy. The Iraq profile below tracks the group-stage picture, futures market context and the squad factors that matter most before the knockout rounds, with broader tournament details available via the official FIFA World Cup hub.
Iraq have a deep World Cup history relative to the contender band, but recent cycles have not produced the breakthroughs the market would price them above their current odds for.
Group I and the route through the knockouts are mapped on the 2026 World Cup schedule page, with full bracket detail at FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup site.
Iraq’s World Cup 2026 path
| Round | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD1 | 2026-06-16 | Norway | L 4-1 |
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Traders price them at 12% to qualify from Group I.
Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices Iraq’s tournament arc as:
| Country | Group Exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iraq | 89% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Iraq to win World Cup 2026 odds
To say Iraq are outsiders to win the World Cup would be putting it lightly. As things stand, they’re bring ranked among the bottom teams in the tournament at odds of about 1500/1 to win the tournament.
While the likes of Curacao, Haiti and Jordan are priced further out, those odds do reflect just how little chance the Lions of Mesopotamia are being given by the bookmakers for this upcoming World Cup.
In truth, getting out of the group stage would be considered a huge achievement for a nation taking part in the finals for only the second time in their history.
Iraq odds to win Group I
Iraq arrive as the long-odds outsiders of Group I, drawn against France, Norway, and Senegal. The market does not price them topping the group, but the expanded knockout format keeps qualification in play.
The Polymarket market in the widget below has Iraq priced as clear underdogs. The realistic ceiling is a third-place finish and a path through to the Round of 32 via one of the third-place qualification spots.
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Iraq stage of elimination odds
These are still to be confirmed, but Iraq are set for a difficult time in Group I, even with some third-placed teams going through. They are not being backed to get out of the group.
Iraq World Cup top goalscorer odds
No Iraq players are likely to be in the running for the Golden Boot this summer and as such, it’s unsurprising that there are no Iraqi players available in the betting market.
On the very off chance that a player does trouble the top goalscorer rankings, then it’s likely to be 30 year old Al-Karma forward Aymen Hussein who has 33 international goals to his name from 93 caps.
You can find full World Cup Top Goalscorer odds here
Read more: FIFA World Cup Draw: Find out who will play who in 2026
Iraq at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
Iraq are in Group I alongside France, Norway and Senegal. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
Iraq play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Jesús Casas is Spanish and took charge in 2022 after years as Luis Enrique’s assistant with the Spain national team.
Iraq’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +50000 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 0.2%. Iraq sit in the outsider tier, aligned with returning sides without modern tournament pedigree. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
Iraq have only been to one previous World Cup — Mexico 1986 — and lost all three matches. With the expanded 48-team format and Casas’s tactical groundwork, breaking that ceiling is Iraq’s most realistic shot in football history, though the Group I draw with France and Norway is demanding.