Croatia World Cup 2026 odds put Vatreni at +10000 to lift the trophy, an implied probability of 0.99%. The market reads them as outsiders, but the squad and the schedule give Croatia the chance to dictate which kind of outsider story this becomes.
Croatia have a deep World Cup history relative to the contender band, but recent cycles have not produced the breakthroughs the market would price them above their current odds for.
Group ? and the route through the knockouts are mapped on the 2026 World Cup schedule page, with full bracket detail at FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup site.
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Traders price them at 84% to qualify from Group L, and 23% to win it.
Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices Croatia’s tournament arc as:
| Country | Group Exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 19% | 41% | 23% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Croatia odds to win the World Cup
With odds of 100/1, Croatia are very much being put in the ‘darkhorse’ category once again at next summer’s World Cup.
There is a gap in quality between them and tournament favorites like England, Spain, Argentina, Brazil and France. However, they have more than enough quality to hurt any of the top sides on their day, and a World Cup pedigree that is the envy of even some of the greatest nations around right now.
The first big challenge for Croatia is making sure they navigate their way out of Group L, either most realistically by finishing above Ghana, or as one of the eight best third-place teams.
If they do that, they’re capable of beating anyone on their day — which is exactly why they occupy a similar region of the odds as hosts Mexico and the likes of Uruguay, Japan and Morocco.
Croatia odds to win Group L
Croatia sit second-favorite in Group L. England are the heavy market choice. Ghana and Panama complete the group.
The Polymarket market in the widget below shows the live picture across Group L. The realistic Croatia target is to finish second, qualify through that route or via one of the third-place spots, and a knockout draw they can navigate.
Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
Croatia World Cup top goalscorer odds
Ivan Perisic is the highest-scoring player in Croatia’s most recent squad, with 38 goals in 150 caps, while Luka Modric has scored 28 times in 194 caps.
However, neither veteran is featuring among the odds just yet, with Andrej Kramaric and Nikola Vlasic the most-backed Croatians at present, with Golden Boot odds of 150/1 and 200/1, respectively.
You can find full World Cup Top Goalscorer odds here
| Player | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| N/A | N/A |
| N/A | N/A |
| +15000 | +15000 |
| +20000 | +20000 |
Croatia at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
Croatia are in Group L alongside England, Ghana and Panama. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
Croatia play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Zlatko Dalić enters his third World Cup in charge of Croatia, having taken them to the 2018 final and the 2022 third-place playoff.
Croatia’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +5000 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 2%. Croatia sit in the dark-horse tier, capable of an upset in the knockouts but without top-10 backing. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
Croatia reached the 2018 World Cup final and the 2022 third-place playoff under Dalić. Repeating that in North America will depend on how much the Modrić-Kovacic-Perisić generation has left. A realistic target is escaping the group and reaching the quarterfinals.