Cape Verde drew 0-0 with Spain at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in their 2026 World Cup opener. The point keeps options open with two group games still to play.
Cape Verde to win World Cup 2026 odds centre on whether Cape Verde can turn a favourable tournament path into a genuine run at the trophy. The Cape Verde profile below tracks the group-stage picture, futures market context and the squad factors that matter most before the knockout rounds, with broader tournament details available via the official FIFA World Cup hub.
Cape Verde have a deep World Cup history relative to the contender band, but recent cycles have not produced the breakthroughs the market would price them above their current odds for.
Group H and the route through the knockouts are mapped on the 2026 World Cup schedule page, with full bracket detail at FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup site.
Cape Verde’s World Cup 2026 path
| Round | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MD1 | 2026-06-15 | Spain | D 0-0 |
Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
Traders price them at 29% to qualify from Group H.
Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices Cape Verde’s tournament arc as:
| Country | Group Exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Verde | 66% | 22% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
Cape Verde to win World Cup 2026 odds
As you’d expect, Cape Verde’s odds of winning the 2026 World Cup are long. They’re around 2000/1 to be more blunt. That’s an implied probability of just 0.05%. But that’s completely fair.
After all, Cape Verde are making their World Cup debuts. And they didn’t qualify for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, losing four of their qualifying group games there. They also have an incredibly tough World Cup group.
Cape Verde odds to win Group H
Cape Verde arrive as the long-odds outsiders of Group H, drawn against Spain, Uruguay, and Saudi Arabia. The market does not price them topping the group, but the expanded knockout format keeps qualification in play.
The Polymarket market in the widget below has Cape Verde priced as clear underdogs. The realistic ceiling is a third-place finish and a path through to the Round of 32 via one of the third-place qualification spots.
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Cape Verde stage of elimination odds
Given the group they’re in, Cape Verde are odds-on to be knocked out at the group stage this summer. But their odds to qualify aren’t too long, as people know anything can happen at World Cups.
| Group qualification | Latest odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +162 |
| No | -225 |
Cape Verde World Cup top goalscorer odds
Unsurprisingly, there are no odds for a Cape Verde player to win the Golden Boot at the 2026 World Cup.
Cape Verde at the 2026 World Cup: FAQs
Cape Verde are in Group H alongside Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia. The draw was made in Las Vegas on 5 December 2025.
Cape Verde play three group-stage matches between 11 June and 27 June 2026, with venues confirmed by FIFA across the United States, Mexico and Canada. The round of 32 follows from 28 June to 3 July, the round of 16 from 4 to 7 July, and the quarterfinals from 9 to 11 July.
Pedro Leitão Brito ‘Bubista’ is Cape Verdean and took charge in 2020, building the best generation in the country’s history and reaching the 2024 Africa Cup of Nations quarterfinal.
Cape Verde’s odds to win the 2026 World Cup are around +200000 at leading US sportsbooks, an implied probability of about 0.05%. Cape Verde sit at the bottom of the outright market, the smallest population in a debut World Cup squad. For full market context see our World Cup 2026 winner odds page.
Cape Verde’s qualification is already a historic milestone — the smallest African nation ever to reach a World Cup. Passing the group stage in their debut would compare to Senegal’s 2002 quarterfinal run. With the expanded 48-team format and the African-quarterfinal base, that target is more realistic than the rankings suggest.