Introduction
Toronto FC hosts the New York Red Bulls at BMO Field in their 2026 MLS home opener on Saturday, March 14, with kickoff scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. After a challenging start to the season, Toronto secured their first victory last weekend against FC Cincinnati thanks to a late Daniel Salloi goal. Meanwhile, the Red Bulls have made a strong start with two wins from three matches, their only setback being a 3-0 defeat to CF Montréal last weekend. Both teams will look to gain early momentum in the Eastern Conference, but New York’s consistent performances and historical edge in this fixture make them favorites heading into this encounter.
Best Bets & Predictions
The Red Bulls’ possession dominance and ability to create scoring opportunities, combined with Toronto’s ongoing defensive vulnerabilities, make New York the sensible pick for the win. With Toronto integrating new signing Josh Sargent and managing several key absences, this match promises to be a tactical battle. Below are our recommended bets for Saturday’s contest.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls to Win | -110 @ Bet365 (52.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Red Bulls unbeaten so far in 2026; Toronto missing key defenders and goalkeeper. |
| Both Teams to Score – Yes | -120 @ Bet365 (54.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Toronto’s attack is improving with Salloi and Sargent; Red Bulls concede chances despite strong form. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | +100 @ Bet365 (50.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Both sides have combined for multiple goals in recent games, suggesting an open contest. |
Our recommended strategy: Back New York to secure the win and consider Both Teams to Score for additional value.
Odds accurate at time of publication. Please bet responsibly.
Season Form & Standings
The 2026 MLS season is still in its early stages, with both teams displaying contrasting fortunes. Toronto FC have recorded 1 win and 2 losses, totaling 3 points after three games, while conceding six goals. New York Red Bulls have made a strong start with two wins from three matches, earning 6 points, though they suffered a 3-0 defeat to CF Montréal last weekend. The Red Bulls still sit comfortably in the upper tier of the Eastern Conference standings, whereas Toronto looks to stabilize at home.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| Toronto FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Eric Choupo-Moting (New York Red Bulls): The forward has scored in each of his last three starts and remains a constant threat, supported by a highly creative Red Bulls midfield.
- Jorge Ruvalcaba (New York Red Bulls): A key figure in attack, Ruvalcaba averages over three shots per match, helping drive New York’s potent offense.
- Dániel Sallói (Toronto FC): After netting the winner against Cincinnati, Sallói continues to be Toronto’s primary offensive spark, averaging over one shot on target per game.
- Josh Sargent (Toronto FC): The newly signed designated player has been training well and could make an impact either as a starter or substitute in Toronto’s home opener.
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
Historically, the New York Red Bulls have had the upper hand in recent meetings against Toronto FC, winning the majority of their last 17 encounters. Toronto has struggled to get positive results at BMO Field against New York. Below are the most recent five matches, where Toronto has yet to secure a victory.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2025 | Toronto FC 1-1 New York Red Bulls | MLS |
| Mar 22, 2025 | New York Red Bulls 2-1 Toronto FC | MLS |
| Oct 3, 2024 | Toronto FC 1-4 New York Red Bulls | MLS |
| Jun 23, 2024 | New York Red Bulls 3-0 Toronto FC | MLS |
| Oct 8, 2023 | New York Red Bulls 3-0 Toronto FC | MLS |
Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction
Given New York Red Bulls’ strong start to the season — two wins from three matches — and their historical dominance over Toronto, they remain favorites to claim victory at BMO Field. Toronto’s defensive absences, including goalkeeper Adisa De Rosario and several defenders, will test their resilience against a strong Red Bulls attack. With Josh Sargent’s arrival adding a fresh attacking option for Toronto, this could be an engaging match, but New York’s consistency and tactical discipline, despite last week’s setback against Montréal, should see them secure the three points on the road. Our top pick is New York Red Bulls to win at -110 with Bet365 (52.4% implied probability).
Odds are correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
More MLS stats and standings: MLS standings 2026 | Top scorers | Assist leaders | Full MLS stats hub