Newcastle close out a flat home campaign against a West Ham side still doing relegation maths at St James’ Park on Sunday, May 17 at 1:30 PM ET / 12:30 PM CT / 10:30 AM PT. The Magpies sit 13th on 46 points with mid-table their ceiling; the visitors are 18th on 36 points, two games left, max-reachable 42 — still on the wrong side of the line and needing a result.
Our Newcastle vs West Ham prediction starts with the matchup numbers. The Hammers have not won away in their last six, and Newcastle have scored in each of their last two at home. With the visitors needing goals to survive, the over and Both Teams to Score read as the cleanest angles.
bet365 price Newcastle at +105, with West Ham at +225 and the draw at +275. The home side is the value pick at a near-coin-flip ML in a goals matchup.
Newcastle vs West Ham: Best Bets & Predictions
Newcastle’s matchup edge at St James’ Park and West Ham’s leaky away form steer the card toward a home win in a goal-heavy game.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle to Win | +105 @ bet365 (48.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | West Ham have not won away in their last six; Newcastle beat Brighton 3-1 at home on May 3 and remain a credible home side. |
| Correct Score: Newcastle 2-1 | +900 @ bet365 (10.0%) | ⭐⭐ | Newcastle have conceded in their last two and the Hammers have to chase the game — 2-1 fits a tight home win with a visitor goal. |
| Gordon to score anytime | +162 @ bet365 (38.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Gordon has six league goals from 5.82 xG in 1,814 minutes, with 32 successful dribbles — the most direct line to a Newcastle goal at home. |
| Bowen to score anytime | +187 @ bet365 (34.8%) | ⭐⭐ | Bowen has played every league minute with eight goals, 26 shots on target and 6.58 xG — the one Hammers attacker a thin Newcastle back line cannot ignore. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -200 @ bet365 (66.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Both teams have scored in four of Newcastle’s last five, and West Ham have shipped 62 league goals — third-worst in the division. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -225 @ bet365 (69.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Newcastle have conceded in their last two; West Ham have to chase a result to keep their survival hopes alive. |
Our approach: anchor on a Newcastle home win, stack the goal markets, then hedge with Bowen at +187 to cover the away angle if the Hammers find an early opener.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
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Match-specific prediction market pricing for Newcastle vs West Ham has not yet surfaced at time of writing on either Kalshi or Polymarket. The sportsbook read is the cleaner tool for this fixture. We will reflect any later pricing here if Kalshi or Polymarket list the fixture.
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Season Form & Standings
Newcastle are 13th on 46 points, with no European place reachable from here. West Ham are 18th on 36 points with two games left — max-reachable 42, and 17th-placed Tottenham currently sit on 38, so the survival picture is still live.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 13 | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 46 |
| West Ham | 18 | 36 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 42 | 62 | -20 | 36 |
The 2025/26 Premier League relegation odds have shortened on the Hammers across the spring. Full table on the Premier League standings page.
Potential Match-Winners
- Gordon (Newcastle): six goals and two assists in 28 league outings, with 32 successful dribbles — Newcastle’s most direct ball-carrier and the clearest individual edge at home.
- Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle): top scorer at the club with nine league goals from midfield plus five assists. The Magpies’ creative axis runs through him on home turf.
- Bowen (West Ham): every league minute, eight goals, 10 assists, 26 shots on target. If West Ham nick something here, it goes through Bowen.
- Souček (West Ham): five goals from deep midfield and an aerial threat on set-pieces against a thin Newcastle back line.
Head-to-Head
Across the last five league meetings, Newcastle hold a slim edge with two wins and two draws to West Ham’s one. The reverse fixture in November went the Hammers’ way 3-1 in London, but the home leg has been a tighter affair in recent seasons.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | West Ham 3-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Mar 10, 2025 | West Ham 0-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Nov 25, 2024 | Newcastle 0-2 West Ham | Premier League |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Newcastle 4-3 West Ham | Premier League |
| Oct 8, 2023 | West Ham 2-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
Recent Form
Newcastle — L L L W D
- May 10, 2026: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle (D, away)
- May 3, 2026: Newcastle 3-1 Brighton (W, home)
- Apr 26, 2026: Arsenal 2-0 Newcastle (L, away)
- Apr 19, 2026: Newcastle 0-1 Bournemouth (L, home)
- Apr 12, 2026: Crystal Palace 2-1 Newcastle (L, away)
Newcastle have taken four points from their last five, with the Brighton home win the one real bright spot of the run-in. With Schär out for the season and the back line stretched, the Magpies have conceded in their last two.
West Ham — W D W L L
- May 10, 2026: West Ham 0-1 Arsenal (L, home)
- May 3, 2026: Brentford 3-0 West Ham (L, away)
- Apr 26, 2026: West Ham 2-1 Everton (W, home)
- Apr 19, 2026: Crystal Palace 0-0 West Ham (D, away)
- Apr 12, 2026: West Ham 1-0 Sunderland (W, home)
The Hammers have lost their last two without scoring. With eight relegation rivals above them on points, this is not a side that can afford another blank in the closer.
Newcastle vs West Ham Prediction
Newcastle are sleepwalking through the run-in but they remain a credible home side, and the matchup numbers favor them. West Ham have not won away in their last six, and a Bruno-Guimarães–led midfield should find space against a side chasing the game from the first whistle. Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 are the safest reads at -225 and -200; Newcastle to win at +105 with bet365 is the anchor pick of the card. For more weekend picks, see our soccer predictions hub or the bet365 review.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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