Squawka’s World Cup 2026 AI Predictor takes a view on every fixture at this summer’s tournament, blending bet365’s market price with advanced match data and a baseline strength prior to land on a predicted scoreline for every match. The 2026 World Cup kicks off at Estadio Azteca on June 11, the first edition staged across three host nations and the largest tournament soccer has ever put on. Forty-eight sides, twelve groups, 64 matches between the opener and the final at MetLife on July 19, and the AI Predictor goes in match by match, from the opening fixture in Mexico City through to the Final.
It combines three things. The market: bet365’s pre-match correct-score and 1X2 prices, used as the anchor. The advanced data: recent-form metrics for each side, from shot generation through pass control in the final third. And a baseline strength prior built from qualifying form and FIFA’s ranking. The blend produces a predicted scoreline, an implied edge against bet365, and a short read on where the model’s view came from.
The full AI Predictor methodology walks through the inputs and the weighting. The running record below tracks how the Predictor calls the tournament: exact scores, result calls, and units returned against bet365’s closing line. Sixty-four matches is a long route, and the Predictor is not trying to issue 64 winners. The market knows what it is doing. Where the data sees something different, that is where the picks get interesting.
The AI Predictor’s record so far
Awaiting Matchday 1. The running record populates after the first final whistle on June 11 and updates after every result thereafter.
Take the picks on bet365
Every AI Predictor pick is calibrated against bet365’s correct-score market, which the model uses as its anchor signal. If you want to take any of the picks below at the cited prices, bet365 is the natural route. New US users can claim a First Bet Safety Net up to $1,000.
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Jump to a matchday
- Matchday 1, June 11 to 14
- Matchday 2, June 15 to 18 (picks unlock as bet365 prices each game)
- Matchday 3, June 19 to 22 (picks unlock as bet365 prices each game)
- Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarter-finals, Semi-finals, Final (picks added as the bracket forms)
Matchday 1, June 11 to 14
The tournament opens with the hosts at altitude, the USMNT on home soil for the first time in a generation, and a Brazil versus Morocco fixture at MetLife that could go very differently from the price. The Predictor’s picks for the three fixtures below run first; the rest of the Matchday 1 slate fills in as bet365 prices each game.
Mexico vs South Africa, Thursday June 11, 3pm ET (Group A)
AI Predictor pick: Mexico 1-0 South Africa | bet365: +550 | Implied edge: +3.8%
Mexico open the tournament as the market’s narrow favorite at -150 to win at Estadio Azteca, and the Predictor sides with the direction without taking a dominant-favorite view. South Africa’s recent advanced numbers are stronger than the price suggests, particularly on pass control and shot volume, which pulls the projection toward a narrow, low-scoring scoreline rather than 2-0 or 3-0. Home advantage and the Azteca altitude prior hold the pick on Mexico; the data caps the goal margin.
Read the full Mexico vs South Africa preview
USA vs Paraguay, Friday June 12, 9pm ET (Group D)
AI Predictor pick: USA 2-1 Paraguay | bet365: +750 | Implied edge: +2.4%
The USMNT play their first home World Cup match in 32 years at SoFi Stadium, and the market makes them -130 to win on the night. The Predictor agrees on outcome but reads Paraguay as harder opposition than the implied probability suggests, with their defensive solidity and counter-attacking threat both standing up well in qualifying. 2-1 reflects the home edge and the broader strength prior, with room for Paraguay to keep the goal market live.
Read the full USA vs Paraguay preview
Brazil vs Morocco, Saturday June 13, 6pm ET (Group C)
AI Predictor pick: Brazil 2-1 Morocco | bet365: +550 | Implied edge: +1.8%
Brazil arrive at MetLife as -250 favorites against the Morocco side that reached the 2022 semi-finals, and the market is pricing for a comfortable win rather than the awkward fixture it could be. The Predictor stays with Brazil on outcome but reads Morocco as a sharper underdog than the price implies, with strong set-piece numbers and the structural compactness that took them through Qatar 2022. 2-1 reflects Brazil’s attacking edge and a pseudo-home crowd in New York while keeping Morocco on the scoresheet.
Read the full Brazil vs Morocco preview
Trade the pick on Kalshi
The AI Predictor’s call is the correct-score scoreline on each card above, and the bet365 price is the natural betting market for that exact outcome. If you want to act on the model’s broader read in a different way, prediction markets are the alternative route. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US event-contracts exchange that prices outcomes like “Mexico to win” or “USA to advance from Group D” as a percentage probability you can buy or sell. Unlike correct-score betting, you are taking a position on the market’s implied probability of an event, with the price moving as new information lands. Kalshi is available in all 50 states, which makes it the simplest single CTA for a national audience.
21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2573). Chat available at ncpgambling.org/chat
Polymarket is also live for real-money trading in the US following its 2025 acquisition of QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange. It is available in most states except Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are CFTC-regulated event-contract exchanges; choose between them on funding method, liquidity depth, and your state’s coverage. 21+. Trade responsibly.
Matchday 2, June 15 to 18
Picks for each Matchday 2 fixture unlock as bet365 prices the game, typically in the 10 to 14 day window before kickoff. Same card row format, same accuracy treatment, same swap from pick to result after the final whistle.
Matchday 3, June 19 to 22
Final round of group fixtures. Picks land when bet365 prices each game.
World Cup 2026 AI Predictor: full picks ledger
The full picks ledger below tracks every Predictor call across the tournament: predicted scoreline, actual result, and the hit/miss verdict for each match.
| Match | AI Predictor pick | Actual result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico vs South Africa | Mexico 1-0 | TBC | TBC |
| USA vs Paraguay | USA 2-1 | TBC | TBC |
| Brazil vs Morocco | Brazil 2-1 | TBC | TBC |
More from the AI Predictor
For the full inputs, weighting, and accuracy guardrails behind the picks, read the Squawka AI Predictor methodology. For more on this summer’s tournament, see our 2026 World Cup hub.
21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Odds approximate at time of writing
