Los Angeles are 3-0 down and play on Thursday night to keep their season alive. Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market, makes them clear favourites to win the game and gives them a 7% chance of winning the World Series. Both of those things can be true at once, and the gap between them is the story.
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Match markets — Brewers vs Dodgers
Los Angeles sit at 57% for Game 4 and Milwaukee at 42% — the Dodgers backed at home for the third game running. On the title board they are down to 6%, having been 33% before a ball was thrown in this series. Milwaukee have gone the other way, from 32% to 57%. One good night does not fix a 3-0 deficit, and the market has priced exactly that.
Match Markets — Brewers vs Dodgers
Game Winner
- Milwaukee42%
- Los Angeles D57%
World Series Winner
- Milwaukee57%
- Tampa Bay21%
- Cleveland13%
- Los Angeles D6%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 8:49am ET on October 15. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
Milwaukee homered their way to a 6-2 win in Game 3 to move within one of the pennant. Tyler Glasnow starts for Los Angeles, with the Brewers yet to name theirs at the time of writing. Exactly one team in MLB history has recovered from 3-0 down in a best-of-seven, the 2004 Red Sox, which is the company the Dodgers need to join. This game was also moved up an hour, to 8pm ET, as part of the weather rescheduling in Cleveland.
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More MLB postseason markets
More on prediction markets
- What is Kalshi? Sports prediction markets explained
- Kalshi vs Polymarket: which prediction market is better?
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