Rain in Cleveland has pulled this one forward five hours: ALCS Game 3 now starts at lunchtime rather than in the evening. The series is level at 1-1 and moves to Progressive Field, where Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market, makes the Guardians favourites.
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Match markets — Rays vs Guardians
Cleveland sit at 54% and Tampa Bay at 45%, the home side favoured as they have been in every game of this series regardless of who won last. The World Series board tells a different story. Tampa Bay are on 21% and Cleveland 13% — the Rays rated clearly higher despite the series being level and the next three games being in Ohio. Both sit well behind Milwaukee on 57%.
Match Markets — Rays vs Guardians
Game Winner
- Tampa Bay45%
- Cleveland54%
World Series Winner
- Milwaukee57%
- Tampa Bay21%
- Cleveland13%
- Los Angeles D6%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 8:49am ET on October 15. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
Cleveland took the opener 7-3 after trailing, Tampa Bay levelled it on Tuesday, and the series now spends three games in Ohio. Gavin Williams starts for the Guardians — he also started Game 2 of the ALDS and the Game 5 decider — against Griffin Jax for the Rays. First pitch is 1pm ET with gates open from 11am, MLB having moved the game to get it in ahead of the forecast.
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