Arsenal host Burnley on Monday, May 18 at 4:00 PM ET / 3:00 PM CT / 1:00 PM PT at Emirates Stadium with the title arithmetic in their hands. The Gunners lead Manchester City by two points with two games each remaining; a win over already-relegated Burnley, combined with anything other than a City win at Bournemouth on Tuesday, would deliver the 2025-26 Premier League trophy.
Our Arsenal vs Burnley prediction starts with the table. The Gunners sit top on 79 points, two clear of Manchester City with two matches remaining, and the Premier League title race is still live going into matchday 37. Burnley, by contrast, are already down — the Clarets are stuck on 21 points in 19th and cannot mathematically reach the safe spot.
bet365 prices Arsenal at -1100 to win, with Burnley at +1800 and the draw at +1000. The market is treating this as a near-formality at the Emirates, and the Clarets’ away form gives that price every reason to hold.
Arsenal vs Burnley: Best Bets & Predictions
The arsenal vs burnley prediction is straightforward: back the favourite hard, layer in goals, and pick a striker who is on the way to a Golden Boot conversation in the top-scorer race.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to Win | -1100 @ bet365 (91.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Arsenal have won three in a row and kept a clean sheet in each, the last goal conceded at Manchester City on April 19, 2026. Burnley are winless in 10. |
| Viktor Gyokeres Anytime Goalscorer | -163 @ bet365 (62.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Gyokeres has 14 league goals with 7.18 xG and 22 shots on target. Against a side that has conceded in each of its last 6, the volume should find a way through. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -275 @ bet365 (73.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Three of Arsenal’s last five have gone over 2.5 and the same is true of Burnley. The hosts have scored in 14 straight league outings. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -200 @ bet365 (66.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Arsenal have three clean sheets in a row and conceded just 26 league goals all season. Burnley have failed to score in two of their last five. |
| Correct Score: Arsenal 3-0 | +550 @ bet365 (15.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | The shortest correct score on the board and a scoreline that matches our other reads: hosts win comfortably, no Clarets reply, totals comfortably over the line. |
Our approach: anchor the slip with Arsenal to win, add Gyokeres anytime and Over 2.5 for value, and let the 3-0 correct score sit as the priced-up flier on the same outcome story. Read the full bet365 review before placing the slip.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Prediction Markets: Live Odds & Win Probability
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Match-specific prediction market pricing for Arsenal vs Burnley has not yet surfaced at time of writing. The sportsbook read is the cleaner tool for this match. We will update here if and when Kalshi or Polymarket list the fixture.
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Season Form & Standings
The gap between these sides is the biggest on the matchday: Arsenal are top on 79 points with the league’s best defense (26 conceded), Burnley are 19th on 21 with the league’s joint-worst goal difference at minus-36. Check the full EPL standings for the wider picture.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1 | 36 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 68 | 26 | +42 | 79 |
| Burnley | 19 | 36 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 37 | 73 | -36 | 21 |
Burnley’s relegation has long since been confirmed; the only question over at Turf Moor is finishing position, with the EPL relegation odds already settled on the three names going down.
Potential Match-Winners
- Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal): Has 14 league goals on 7.18 xG with 22 shots on target across 2,206 minutes — the most prolific striker Arsenal have fielded in this title race and a logical anchor on any anytime-scorer slip.
- Bukayo Saka (Arsenal): Seven goals, four assists and 49 successful dribbles — the only Gunner with double-digit big chances created (10), and the one most likely to break a tiring Burnley back line late on.
- Leandro Trossard (Arsenal): Six goals and six assists from 1,917 minutes — Arsenal’s most efficient creator-finisher hybrid, and the +110 anytime price reflects the matchups he keeps drawing.
- Jaidon Anthony (Burnley): Carrying the Clarets attack with eight league goals and 32 successful dribbles — the one outlet who can punish a high Arsenal line if the visitors get a settled spell.
Head-to-Head
Arsenal have dominated the recent series, winning six of the last 10 league meetings against three draws and one Burnley win. The Gunners ran out 2-0 winners at Turf Moor in the reverse fixture in November.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | Burnley 0-2 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Burnley 0-5 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Arsenal 3-1 Burnley | Premier League |
| Jan 23, 2022 | Arsenal 0-0 Burnley | Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2021 | Burnley 0-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
Recent Form
Arsenal: L L W W W
- May 10, 2026: West Ham 0-1 Arsenal (W, away)
- May 2, 2026: Arsenal 3-0 Fulham (W, home)
- Apr 25, 2026: Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle (W, home)
- Apr 19, 2026: Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal (L, away)
- Apr 11, 2026: Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth (L, home)
Arsenal are on a three-match winning run, with the last loss a 1-2 defeat at Manchester City on April 19, 2026. They have kept a clean sheet in each of those three wins, and have scored in 14 straight league outings, the last goalless game a 0-0 draw at Nottingham Forest on January 17, 2026.
Burnley: L L L L D
- May 10, 2026: Burnley 2-2 Aston Villa (D, home)
- May 1, 2026: Leeds 3-1 Burnley (L, away)
- Apr 22, 2026: Burnley 0-1 Manchester City (L, home)
- Apr 19, 2026: Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley (L, away)
- Apr 11, 2026: Burnley 0-2 Brighton (L, home)
Burnley are winless in 10, with the last win a 3-2 result at Crystal Palace on February 11, 2026. They have conceded in each of their last six and have shipped 12 goals in their last five matches.
Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction
Arsenal are two wins away from lifting the Premier League title, host a side that has already been relegated and have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three. The Gunners are -1100 favourites for good reason. Our top call is Viktor Gyokeres anytime goalscorer at -163 with bet365 against a defense shipping at every turn, with the Premier League hub tracking every result through the title run-in. Kick-off is 4:00 PM ET / 3:00 PM CT / 1:00 PM PT at Emirates Stadium.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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