San Diego were a defeat from elimination on Tuesday, won, and are a defeat from elimination again on Wednesday. Milwaukee still lead 2-1 and can close it out at Petco Park. Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market, makes the Padres narrow favourites once more.
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Match markets — Brewers vs Padres
San Diego sit at 51% and Milwaukee at 48% — essentially the same price the market offered before Game 3, which San Diego won. The run lines are almost indistinguishable: the Brewers 49% to clear 3.5, the Padres 47%. For a team that won 103 games, Milwaukee are being given remarkably little credit on the road.
Match Markets — Brewers vs Padres
Game Winner
- Milwaukee48%
- San Diego51%
Brewers Runs
- Over 3.549%
- Over 4.535%
Padres Runs
- Over 3.547%
- Over 4.533%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 4:25am ET on October 7. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
Milwaukee took the first two by a single run each, 3-2 and 4-3, before San Diego won Game 3 to stay alive. The Brewers finished 103-59, the best record in baseball, against San Diego’s 91-71 — a twelve-game gap the market keeps declining to price at Petco Park. Neither side had named a Game 4 starter at the time of writing.
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