Cleveland have lost twice and their season ends this afternoon if they lose again. Chicago can finish it on their own field. Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market, makes it the closest game on a four-game elimination slate.
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Match markets — Guardians vs White Sox
Chicago sit at 51% and Cleveland at 48% — a three-point gap for a side two wins from the brink. The run lines are the loudest numbers here: both offences are above 50% to clear 3.5, the only game tonight where that is true of either team. The market expects runs, which tends to help the side that has to chase.
Match Markets — Guardians vs White Sox
Game Winner
- Cleveland48%
- Chicago WS51%
Guardians Runs
- Over 3.552%
- Over 4.539%
White Sox Runs
- Over 3.553%
- Over 4.539%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 4:25am ET on October 7. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
Chicago won Game 1 3-0, Munetaka Murakami’s two-run homer the difference and five Chicago pitchers combining on a three-hitter, then took Game 2 as well. They finished the regular season 84-78 to Cleveland’s 85-77 — the two most closely matched teams left in the bracket, separated by a single game and now by a 2-0 series lead. Daniel Espino starts for Cleveland, Sean Newcomb for Chicago. On this pricing it is the one elimination game tonight where the side facing the exit is not meaningfully the underdog.
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