New York are down 2-0 and one defeat from the end of their season. They are also the biggest favourite on tonight’s card. Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market, has the Yankees at 60% to stay alive in the Bronx.
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Match markets — Rays vs Yankees
That is the striking number of the night: the team closest to elimination is the shortest price on the board. New York sit at 60%, Tampa Bay at 39%. The run lines agree — the Yankees 53% to clear 3.5 against the Rays’ 42%. Two defeats have not shifted the market’s view of which of these sides is better at home.
Match Markets — Rays vs Yankees
Game Winner
- Tampa Bay39%
- New York Y60%
Rays Runs
- Over 3.542%
- Over 4.528%
Yankees Runs
- Over 3.553%
- Over 4.539%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 4:25am ET on October 7. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
Tampa Bay won Game 1 1-0 and Game 2 to take a commanding lead, having finished the regular season 98-64 to New York’s 93-68. Nick Martinez starts for the Rays, Max Fried for the Yankees. Tampa Bay have not needed to score much to win this series so far; on tonight’s pricing, the market thinks that run is about to end.
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