Thirteen games left on the Week 7 card, and the model has already lost the first one. New England was a 1.6-point pick at 56% and Chicago won 30-24, so the week starts 0-1. Every pick below is the Squawka Signal’s call as it stands this morning, with the projected margin and the win probability it carries.
Every NFL Week 7 prediction
| Kick-off (ET) | Game | Signal pick | Projected margin | Win prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 22 | Patriots at Bears | Patriots (final: Bears 30-24) | 1.6 | 56% |
| Sun Oct 25 | Steelers at Saints | Steelers | 5.1 | 69% |
| Sun Oct 25 | Colts at Vikings | Vikings | 10.1 | 82% |
| Sun Oct 25 | Dolphins at Jets | Jets | 1.6 | 56% |
| Sun Oct 25 | Bengals at Ravens | Ravens | 2.3 | 59% |
| Sun Oct 25 | Browns at Titans | Browns | 3.0 | 61% |
| Sun Oct 25 | Buccaneers at Panthers | Panthers | 3.2 | 62% |
| Sun Oct 25 | 49ers at Falcons | 49ers | 6.5 | 73% |
| Sun Oct 25 | Giants at Texans | Texans | 4.8 | 68% |
| Sun Oct 25 | Broncos at Cardinals | Broncos | 8.7 | 79% |
| Sun Oct 25 | Rams at Raiders | Rams | 4.6 | 67% |
| Sun Oct 25 | Packers at Lions | Lions | 2.0 | 57% |
| Sun Oct 25 | Chiefs at Seahawks | Seahawks | 1.2 | 54% |
| Mon Oct 26 | Cowboys at Eagles | Eagles | 3.5 | 63% |
Margins are the model’s projected winning margin, not a market line. Prices move; these do not, and they are published before kickoff so they can be checked afterwards.
The two the model cannot separate
Kansas City at Seattle is the closest call on the board at 54%, with the Seahawks favoured by 1.2. Miami at the NY Jets is next at 56%, the Jets by 1.6. Those are the two where the model is saying little more than that it leans one way, and they are the two worth reading the team news on rather than the number.
At the other end, Indianapolis at Minnesota is the most confident call of the week at 82%, a projected 10.1 points. On the season the model has gone 24-10 on calls at 70% and above, so the confident end of the board has earned more trust than the close end.
Four games worth a second look
Kansas City at Seattle, Seahawks by 1.2 at 54%. Kansas City is 5-0 and has not lost, and the model still makes it a road underdog. That is the most interesting number on the board. Seattle is 3-3 and at home, and the Signal rates teams on what they have done rather than on a record, so an unbeaten side arriving as a marginal underdog is the model saying the five wins flatter them.
Miami at the NY Jets, Jets by 1.6 at 56%. Miami is 0-5 and has not won a game, and the model separates this by under two points. The Jets are 2-4. When a winless team is close to level the model is usually saying the two are equally poor rather than that an upset is brewing.
San Francisco at Atlanta, 49ers by 6.5 at 73%. San Francisco is 6-0 and one of three sides yet to lose, with Kansas City and Minnesota, and the model reads the three of them nothing alike. Kansas City goes to Seattle as a 46% underdog, San Francisco is backed by 6.5 here, and Minnesota is the firmest call of the week at 82%. Atlanta is 2-4.
Cleveland at Tennessee, Browns by 3.0 at 61%. Tennessee is 1-5 after finally winning one, 26-20 at Indianapolis, having opened the season with five straight defeats. Cleveland is 4-2. The model has not moved far off the Browns on the strength of one Tennessee win, which is the behaviour you want from something that rates a full season rather than last Sunday.
Who is not playing, and the early kick
Four teams are idle, which is why the card runs to fourteen games rather than sixteen: Buffalo at 5-1, Jacksonville at 4-2, Washington at 1-4 and the LA Chargers at 0-6, who hold the first pick in the current draft order. Nothing on the board moves for any of them this week.
One other quirk worth knowing before you set an alarm: Pittsburgh at New Orleans kicks off at 9:30am ET from London, the earliest slot of the week by three and a half hours. Pittsburgh is 4-2, New Orleans 2-4, and the model makes the Steelers a 5.1-point pick at 69%. Kick-off times and Canadian channels for the full card are on our TV schedule.
Thursday night, already lost
New England at Chicago was one of the closest calls on the board and the model got it wrong. It made the Patriots a 1.6-point pick at 56%; Chicago won 30-24, gaining 405 yards behind 308 passing yards and two touchdowns from Caleb Williams. A 56% call is a coin flip with a lean, and this is what losing one looks like. The week starts 0-1 and that is on the record before the Sunday slate rather than after it.
How Week 6 went
Week 6 finished 8-6 straight up from 14 picks, 57.1%, with a mean margin error of 8.2 pts. That leaves the season at 56-36-1 from 93 picks, 60.9%, the margin error averaging 9.5 pts. Every week of it is on the picks page, including the weeks that went badly.
What the confidence number is worth
Across 93 graded picks the bands still sort the way they should, which is the only real test of a stated probability.
| Stated confidence | Picks | Record | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% and above | 34 | 24–10 | 71% |
| 60% to 69% | 32 | 19–13 | 59% |
| Below 60% | 27 | 13–13–1 | 50% |
The bottom row is the one to take seriously, and it has moved: at 13-13-1 it is now exactly even, which is what a call in the mid-50s should look like over 27 attempts. Four of this week’s remaining games sit in that band, six more between 60 and 69, and three of the thirteen still to play are in the top row where the model has earned its keep.
How these predictions are made
The Signal is our own model. It rates every team on what it has actually done, projects a margin for each fixture and converts that into a win probability, and it is published before kickoff and graded afterwards with nothing removed. The full method is on the methodology page, the weekly board lives on the NFL picks page, and each game has its own preview from the NFL hub. Availability can change a call late, so the injury report is the thing to read beside it, and our TV schedule has kick-off times and channels in Canada.
19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC) | Please play responsibly | Projections accurate at time of writing and subject to change | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON). See your province’s helpline for resources elsewhere.