Turkey vs United States is the Group D finale at the World Cup 2026, kicking off on Thursday, June 25 at 10 PM ET / 9 PM CT / 8 PM MT / 7 PM PT at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The Americans are already through as group winners. Turkey are already out.
The standings tell most of the story. Mauricio Pochettino’s side sit top of Group D on six points after a 4-1 win over Paraguay and a 2-0 victory against Australia, and they’ll start this one knowing the result doesn’t change their Round of 32 place. Turkey, meanwhile, have lost both matches without finding the net — 2-0 to Australia in Vancouver, then 1-0 to Paraguay in California — and arrive at the finale with nothing tangible left to play for beyond pride and third-place seeding.
That context makes this a tricky game to call at team level but a cleaner one in the individual markets. bet365 price the Americans at -111, Turkey at +250, and the draw at +310, with Over 2.5 goals at +100. The USA moneyline is shorter than you might expect for a side that already has top spot locked, but Pochettino’s forward line has been clinical enough to justify it even accounting for rotation.
Turkey vs United States: Best Bets & Predictions
The rotation question sits at the heart of the handicapping here. Pochettino has every reason to give fringe players a run-out, which keeps Turkey live on the draw line and opens up the goalscorer and totals markets. But even a rotated American back four is dealing with a Turkish attack that has yet to register a single goal at this tournament, so the defensive exposure only travels so far.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States to Win | -111 @ bet365 (52.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Six goals scored, one conceded across two games. Turkey haven’t scored yet at this tournament. Even a rotated USA side carries the superior forward line. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | +100 @ bet365 (50.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | USA are averaging three goals a game in the group. Turkey have conceded five and now need to chase the result to finish with anything off the floor. |
| Folarin Balogun Anytime Scorer | +162 @ bet365 (38.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Two goals in 161 minutes at the tournament, xG of 0.88, three shots on target. The lead striker for one of the three co-hosts against a back line still looking for its first clean sheet. |
| Correct Score: USA 3-1 Turkey | +2800 @ bet365 (3.4%) | ⭐⭐ | USA control while Turkey grab a consolation chasing the game. Runs with the Over 2.5 and BTTS legs — speculative price for a parlay add-on. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | -150 @ bet365 (60.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Turkey are out and forced to push forward. USA have already conceded to Paraguay. An open second half tilts this toward both sides finding the net. |
The anchor pick is Balogun. Over 2.5 goals stacks naturally as a parlay leg alongside the USA win. If you want a third leg, BTTS-Yes rides with both.
Odds correct at time of writing. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC). Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600.
World Cup 2026 Form & Standings
The United States are clear at the top of Group D after two wins from two. Turkey sit at the bottom, pointless, scoreless, and already eliminated. Only the seeding for the best third-placed sides table remains to be settled here.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| Australia | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Paraguay | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| Turkey | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Players to Watch
- Folarin Balogun (United States): The lead striker for one of the three co-hosts has two goals in 161 minutes, an xG of 0.88, and three shots on target across the group stage. The highest-percentage anytime scorer pick of the match.
- Alex Freeman (United States): A goal and an assist for the right-back, every minute of both games played, xG of 0.80 from set-piece and overlap work. Pochettino’s most productive attacking outlet from deep and one to consider in the assists market.
- Kenan Yıldız (Turkey): Turkey’s most dangerous attacking midfielder at the tournament by xG (0.95), despite managing only a single shot on target. With Turkey needing to push forward, the Juventus playmaker gets his best opportunity of the group stage here.
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu (Turkey): Second-highest xG in the Turkish squad (0.61), in a forward role that opens up against a USA back line that may be rotated. At +275 anytime scorer, the most realistic Turkish route to the BTTS-Yes leg landing.
Head-to-Head
There is no World Cup history between these two. The most recent encounter was a friendly in Hartford in 2014 that ended 2-1 to the Americans — worth filing away as a data point but not worth much more than that, given the complete turnover in both squads and coaching staffs since. The more instructive context is what both sides have shown across the past two weeks in the group stage.
Recent Form
United States — W W (Group D)
- Jun 19, 2026: United States 2-0 Australia (W)
- Jun 12, 2026: United States 4-1 Paraguay (W)
Six goals scored, one conceded, and two games where the Americans were in control throughout. The only goal against came from a late Paraguay consolation in the opener. The USA have looked the sharpest of the three co-hosts so far — Canada, Mexico, and the United States all progressing, but Pochettino’s side with the most convincing numbers.
Turkey — L L (Group D)
- Jun 19, 2026: Turkey 0-1 Paraguay (L)
- Jun 14, 2026: Australia 2-0 Turkey (L)
Two defeats, nothing on the scoresheet, and a side that looked short of ideas in the final third across 180 minutes. The tournament has been a major disappointment for a Turkish side that arrived with genuine pedigree from EURO 2024. Regardless of how much Pochettino rotates, the United States will expect to win.
Turkey vs United States Prediction
USA have the group wrapped up, so expect rotation from Pochettino — but Turkey have yet to score at this tournament and have been limited in attack throughout. A USA win with goals at both ends is the cleanest read. Balogun at +162 with bet365 is the standout single-leg pick. For more World Cup picks, see our Paraguay vs Australia preview.
Odds correct at time of writing. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC). Please play responsibly. ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 | BC: 1-888-795-6111 | AB: 1-866-332-2322.