Paraguay and Australia meet at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Thursday, June 25 at 10 PM ET / 9 PM CT / 8 PM MT / 7 PM PT, with both nations level on three points and hunting the second qualification spot from Group D behind hosts the United States.
Three points separate the Group D contenders from the knockout rounds, and the arithmetic is cleanly brutal. World Cup 2026 is at the stage where facts matter more than shape — a win for either side is the cleanest way through, while a draw forces both into the best-third-place calculation and gives Turkey a thread of hope. The Socceroos sit second on goal difference heading into this fixture, but that advantage could dissolve in ninety minutes.
bet365 prices Paraguay at +190, the draw at +120, and Australia at +290. That’s a sportsbook reading this as a coin-flip between two sides who know exactly what a conceded goal costs them — and who have each shown, across two matchdays, a willingness to accept ugly if ugly is enough.
Paraguay vs Australia: Best Bets & Predictions
The data and the odds are pointing the same direction: tight, low-scoring, with both sides content to let the game come to them. Build around the under and find value in the goalscorer market.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 Goals | -275 @ bet365 (73.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Australia have defended with a back five through qualifying and into the tournament; Paraguay have leaned on 1-0 results throughout their CONMEBOL cycle. Neither side has the profile to turn a must-not-lose fixture into an open affair. |
| Draw | +120 @ bet365 (45.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | The sportsbook favourite for a reason. If the parallel Group D fixture runs a certain way, a stalemate advances both nations — and sides who know that tend to stop pressing for the winner that might not be necessary. |
| Alex Arce Anytime Goalscorer | +275 @ bet365 (26.7%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Arce is Paraguay’s shortest-priced scorer at bet365, a position earned through late-qualifying form and his ability to step in over Antonio Sanabria when a goal is needed. |
| Both Teams To Score — No | -163 @ bet365 (62.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | A natural companion to the under. When one side settles for the clean sheet and the other only chases if forced, you get one-directional pressure rather than a back-and-forth that gives both keepers work. |
| Correct Score 0-0 | +300 @ bet365 (25.0%) | ⭐⭐ | The correct-score expression of the draw, under, and BTTS-No thesis combined. Two sides who are structurally committed to not conceding, playing a match neither wants to lose — a goalless decider is genuinely on the table. |
The approach: anchor on Under 2.5 as the primary leg, pair it with BTTS No, and take a dart at Arce anytime goalscorer for value — a line that does not fight the under thesis if he scores the only goal.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please play responsibly. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC).
World Cup Form & Standings
Group D heads into the final matchday with the table finely balanced. The United States have made the second spot irrelevant for themselves, but the fight between Paraguay and Australia — and the lurking presence of Turkey — gives this fixture genuine stakes. Paraguay edge Australia by two on goal difference; a small cushion, but one that may matter if the ninety minutes ends level.
| Team | Pos | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| Australia | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Paraguay | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| Turkey | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Miguel Almirón (Paraguay): The most experienced ball-carrier in the Paraguayan midfield, Almirón is the likeliest conduit from deep build-up to something threatening. His capacity to find pockets between the lines and turn defence into transition is exactly the weapon a low-block, counter-pressing contest tends to reward.
- Julio Enciso (Paraguay): Enciso’s shot volume from wide areas and willingness to drive directly at defenders makes him Paraguay’s most credible source of set-play and half-chance creation. In a match where the door may only open once, his directness matters.
- Nestory Irankunda (Australia): The youngest attacking option in the Socceroos’ squad and the answer to the question of how they break down a committed defensive block. His dribbling directness and willingness to take on opponents in tight spaces fills a gap that Australia lack elsewhere in the forward line.
- Harry Souttar (Australia): If set-pieces decide this, Souttar is Australia’s most dangerous aerial presence at the other end of the pitch. His physicality also anchors the back line against an Arce-and-Sanabria front pairing that is willing to play on the shoulder.
Head-to-Head
Paraguay and Australia have rarely shared a pitch at senior international level — there is no meaningful competitive history between them to lean on, and the data confirms as much. Treat this as a near-blind contest in head-to-head terms: the shape of the match will be decided by the group arithmetic, not by any historical pattern.
Recent Form
Paraguay
La Albirroja’s tournament has been a faithful extension of their CONMEBOL qualifying identity: structured, low-event, willing to absorb pressure and find a way to one goal. A defeat on MD1 was followed by a controlled 1-0 result on MD2 — the picture of a team that wins without flourish and refuses to be drawn into open games. They do not need to change their approach here. They just need it to hold for ninety minutes.
Australia
The Socceroos have carried the same blueprint from AFC qualifying into this tournament: defensive shape first, opportunism when it arrives. Three points from two games is a decent return, even if the minus-two goal difference tells a story about how close they’ve lived to the edge. The back five has been the structure that keeps them in games; it will be the structure that keeps them in contention here.
Paraguay vs Australia Prediction
This has the makings of a carefully managed, low-scoring decider. Neither Paraguay nor the Socceroos have the attacking profile to force an open game from the first whistle, and both understand that a conceded goal may be the match — and the tournament — over. The sportsbooks are landing on the same read: Under 2.5 as the chalk line, a draw as the realistic outcome for sides who know that caution has a points value. Take Under 2.5 at bet365 as the anchor, with the draw as the most likely shape. For more across the tournament, see Turkey vs USA in the parallel Group D fixture, or check the latest World Cup 2026 standings and our full bet365 Canada review.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please play responsibly. 19+ (18+ in AB/MB/QC) | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON)